I would have additionally written, “I hope you are tempering your expectations with your younger child.”
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We researched private high schools for both of our kids (neither attended). We were looking because of the education these schools offered, NOT paying to get some college acceptance. My opinion is that IF this parent expects some elite college acceptance because they are paying for the kid to attend a private prep school, they are barking up the wrong tree.
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Agree with you and @twogirls. . Unrealistic expectations cause unhappiness and stress.
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A friend hired a highly paid college counselor for her kid who went to a specialized public HS, had top grades and scores and a somewhat interesting story. The counselor created a list that I always thought was way too top heavy and the student did not get into any of the schools, except for state flagship. While it was shocking to the family, it was not entirely surprising given that the student did not have much that would them stick out of the qualified pile. To be clear, I am getting the story second-hand, but on that basis did not seem as if the counselor served the family well. The student is happy and thriving at the state school.
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It is presumptuous to expect an acceptance from a school with single-digit acceptance rates.
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How is your 23 doing, both at school and in their relationship with you? I have some thoughts about all of this, and — to use your framing — we “regrouped”, in a sense, for our 25s after our 22’s college experience, and I can say more on that, but I think most of my concern at the moment is for your 23, both regarding school and their connection to you in general. Did they ever get over their disappointment? Are they hating life? Loving it? Thriving? How are things between you? Do they know you’re proud of them? (Are you proud of them?)
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I couldn’t think of the word. That’s the word. I went with over confident. Thanks
‘23 coming home today after a great start to their Junior year. Like a 13 hour drive with a couple buddies… perfect college road trip? ‘23 had normal college challenges - especially getting sick during inopportune weeks, searching for the right major, and living off campus in sophomore year was a low point. I’m super proud of them for their resiliency. Picked it back up this semester. Living on campus, they have a realistic plan to complete an Applied Math/CS double major, and they impressed in a class and landed a cool research position.
I asked them if they wanted to apply for transfers during their first year, and no, they wanted to stay. Lots of good friends, everyone at college is interesting, smart and works hard. Academics are good.
They had other ‘23 friends with similar admissions results. Most happy except one at CMU seemed like they might make a different choice if there was a redo.
There was a ‘24 friend who also had similar admissions results. They attended a public T20 for a year, worked super hard and then transferred to HYPSM.
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There were 4 valedictorians over the last 2 years (couple ties).
8 total HYPSM acceptances and one Ivy ED acceptance.
Expectation for admissions results for the next valedictorian would be ?
I like to tell the story of my own kids HS where for at least a decade, Harvard took exactly three students per year.
One year, the “chatter” was that there was going to be a “problem” with Harvard. Of the ten or so kids applying (or who had discussed that they would be applying), there were four kids who were so outstanding (for very different reasons) that the kids all deemed them “Harvard worthy” but since we live in a world where Harvard ALWAYS takes three students, who was going to be shut out?
Harvard took five kids that year. The four their peers deemed “outstanding” plus a dark horse– someone whose main accomplishments were outside of school so nobody knew about them, but who the faculty clearly thought was off-the-charts.
So great- Harvard now takes five kids a year. Except that next year Harvard took two.
Meanwhile, Yale would consistently take zero or one.
Until they took five (different year from Harvard’s five) and then went back to zero or one.
Moral of the story- the schools don’t play along with the game the kids, the GC’s and the parents play. They take who they want to take. Including the year that a kid who was a multi-generational legacy at Harvard got into Princeton, rejected from Harvard and Brandeis.
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Expectations for the next valedictorian is that they would attend a university that is a good fit for them and that is affordable for their family.
This might be Harvard, MIT, or Stanford. This might be Rutgers or U.Mass Amherst or UNH. This might be McGill or Toronto (even if you are in the US). This might be a small primarily undergraduate university in eastern Canada that other students in the USA have never heard of. This might be WUSTL. This might be Holy Cross.
As I mentioned above, I have had the very good fortune to have met some very, very smart people in my life. This includes several MIT and Stanford professors. This includes a WUSTL professor and a U. Southern California professor. This includes a Canadian speed chess champion. This includes a few people who started very successful high tech companies, and one supreme court justice (I sat next to him on a flight to DC). None of them were billionaires, but one is about half way to being a billionaire (he started multiple successful high tech companies). Any of them are very likely to have been their high school valedictorian. At one point I tried to make a list of the 10 smartest people I have met, and ended up with 14 people on the list. I found where each had gotten their bachelor’s degree. The 14 of them got their bachelor’s degrees at 14 different universities. More recently I added two more people to the list. Now the 16 of them got their bachelor’s degrees at 16 different universities. This does include MIT and Stanford and Princeton. It also includes City College of New York, Holy Cross, the University of the Witswatersrand, and Universite de Montreal. You can get a great undergraduate education at any of these schools, or at a few hundred other universities and colleges.
One daughter is currently getting a PhD at a very good and well ranked program. However, much more importantly she is getting a PhD in a program that is a good fit for her, and she likes her advisor (who is also head of the lab that she is in). I can see on-line where all of the students in her program got their bachelor’s degree. This does include someone with a bachelor’s degree at Harvard and someone with a bachelor’s degree from Bowdoin College. However, it also includes students with degrees from Providence College, U.Mass Amherst, U.Mass Lowell, a couple of universities in China, a couple of universities in Europe, two or three universities in the USA that I have never heard of, and a long list of other universities and colleges.
And a few very strong students do get to MIT or Harvard and find that it is not a good fit for them. I did know two students who dropped out of MIT. One probably would have dropped out of any university (he could handle the coursework but could not handle the challenge of getting himself to class every day). The other probably would have been better off at almost any other university. MIT was just not a good fit for him. Fortunately admissions at these schools are pretty good at avoiding students who would not like the school, but they are not perfect.
So your younger child should be looking for a school that is a good fit for them.
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I read and reread that story. Loved seeing the insight. Appreciate that it takes years to get that type of understanding.
When our oldest applied in 22-23, I couldn’t have told a story like that about our high school. I’d seen the official school list of college matriculations, but really I didn’t know who or how many got into HYPSM or T20s, and especially couldn’t rattle off details of what the strongest ECs looked like.
Now as our older is applying in 25-26, I can tell the story. Call out the legacy admits, the surprises, the exceptional performers who met expectations, the ones that didn’t get the Early result and sweated through RD. My crystal ball isn’t good enough to predict specific college results for kids in the next graduating class but I feel somewhat confident in predicting the general range of outcomes.
That’s an interesting approach and nifty exercise.
Small sample size but still interesting to look at statistical analysis where HYPSM has a 50x overrepresentation. About 0.37% of all US undergrad degrees according to Google, and 3/16 or 19% in your list if there was one each from PSM.
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I’ve been doing this for 12 years, and I can’t predict specific college results. 
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You missed the point of my post.
NOBODY should feel confident in predicting the general range of outcomes. Kids get accepted to MIT and rejected from Cal Tech AND the reverse. A HS regularly has 15% of its seniors get into HYP etc. until the year it drops to 8% where it stays for a few years. A HS which usually gets its Val and Sal into a top 20 school has a year where the Val and Sal end up at the state flagship and a kid ranked much lower gets into Cornell AND Princeton- non-athlete and not a legacy.
The one reasonably predictable admissions category I’ve observed- the military academies. The “locals” know the real deal when they see it. A set of twins- one admitted to the Naval Academy, the other to the Air Force Academy, a non-military family, and the entire town celebrated (but nobody was surprised.). The right stuff. Intellectually, ethically, physically, morally. And then there are the kids who suddenly wake up to their patriotism when their parents tell them their non-existent college savings…
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Caltech’s chemical engineering program (for example) is not ABET-accredited (they lost theirs about 9 years ago) but I seriously doubt that has affected their grads’ employment prospects in any way, shape or form for being a chemical engineer. Accreditation is not as important as you think if you go to a top school that everyone who are in-the-know knows.
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And in my opinion the other predictable admissions category is the very high level musician admission to audition based conservatories.
Faculty have a well tuned system (pun intended) for recognizing exceptional talent and the characteristics which make a successful musician.
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I would expect that a kid (including a valedictorian) without a strong hook will be denied admission to a school with a 4% or similar acceptance rate. I would be pleasantly surprised if the kid does get in.
I was the valedictorian of my high school a million years ago. I have done okay for myself, but it’s not like I deserve a Nobel Prize or anything. There are a lot of valedictorians out there and not a lot of spots at these schools.
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Part of the story was: 4 students were widely acknowledged as “Harvard-worthy” and they all were admitted Harvard. Our school had one clearly “Harvard-worthy” student last year and they were admitted. There’s one clearly “Harvard-worthy” student this year, results coming soon but I’d wager money on an acceptance.
To your points, not everything is predictable. Fantastic kid applied to MIT this year from our high school - they seem to have a good shot, but not a complete lock.
We’re still focused on HYPSM/Ivy.
What happened to - “Kid isn’t especially concerned with rank/prestige.”
Someone does 
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