This is a throwaway account, and I may post a full “chanceme” later. Apologies in advance.
I believe my extracurriculars, awards (including several national-level and prestigious ones), and test scores (1590 SAT, 35 ACT) are great.
However, I had one rough semester with a 1.99 GPA during my first semester of freshman year. All other semesters have been a 4.0 (second semester of freshman year, and full years of sophomore and junior years).
While there are valid reasons and circumstances behind that low GPA, I’m still uncertain how much it will impact my chances moving forward.
An upward trend will help a lot (and possibly an explanation on the Common App for that first semester), but no one can really answer this question for you. Lots of highly qualified students get rejected from highly selective schools. Apply to some reaches that are good fits for you, but make sure you have a balanced list that includes more likely admits where you also would be happy to attend. Know that you can get a top-notch education at just about any school, if you decide to take advantage of what they have to offer.
It is hard to say whether you will get into a university that is ranked in the top 20 in the USA. This would be difficult to predict even if you have always had A’s in everything for your entire life.
However, one bad semester, particularly if it is your first semester of high school, will not stop you from getting accepted to multiple very good universities. This also will not stop you from getting into universities that will help you to do very well in life.
You did not say which state you are in. If you are in California, the the various universities of California will not even care about your freshman year of high school. Unfortunately if you are not from California then they will be expensive. Similarly, if you apply to universities in Canada, they also will not care at all about your freshman year.
But regardless of where you live, having done well for the last 7 semesters of high school will allow you to get accepted to many very good universities.
Also congratulations on turning this around and doing well. This really is going to help you a lot.
What’s a top 20? Top 20 by US News? Forbes? Wall Street Journal? Others - i mean there’s probably 50 top 20 schools.
Then there’s tops in the major. Want supply chain? Arizona State and Michigan State are tops. Want journalism? Syracuse is right up there.
So if you’re a Freshman, forget top 20s. Heck forget college. You need to focus on learning and understanding - that’s most important…because under a 2 isn’t going to do anything for you.
But I wonder if you are a Freshman - because you have a 35 ACT and national awards. Very few Freshman have an ACT.
So if you are not a Freshman, do a chance me - with your entire profile.
Courses before 10th grade still need to be passed with C or higher grades to be counted for the UC/CSU a-g subject requirements. So if, for example, there was a D or F in English that semester, that semester would not count toward the four years of English.
Otherwise, UC admission readers will see all of the self-reported courses and grades. CSU campuses just plug in the recalculated GPA into their admission formulae.
Private colleges and universities in California obviously do whatever they want with your 9th grade courses and grades.
You should do very well. Would be helpful if you share reason for the poor first term on your application for schools which consider freshman year grades.
Do not doubt yourself, but do apply to a reasonable safety or two.
Will T20s (taken to be highly selective schools) notice? yes, will they like it? Obviously not.
Will it automatically always rule you out? no
Will it be the reason you don’t get in? You will never know, and probably not anyway…most kids don’t get in, even with all As. Apply and do your best!
Also, you may want tot consider Environmental Engineering as opposed to just Environmental Science. I believe the career path would give you many more options and opportunities. I’ve read that Environmental Engineers can do everything a Environmental Scientist can do but not vice versa.
My best advice is apply to a reasonably balanced, not too long, list of schools (so say 2 Likelies, 3-5 Targets, and 3 Reaches) as if your GPA just is what it is. Then feel free to add a few more Reaches which may only make sense if instead they basically ignore this semester. Then you are covered either way, understanding some of your original Reaches may be more Targets if in fact that is the treatment you get.
Note that if you apply to schools where there are requirements rather than recommendations or expectations of high school course work, be sure that any D or F grades in the first semester do not create a deficiency in some subject area that would result in not fulfilling the requirements.
Of course many colleges are still taking applications.
But yes, if the OP is just asking us to speculate on what will happen with applications already submitted, well, the OP is going to find out soon enough. And unless something actionable would come of it, it is usually going to be better to try to put this aside for now, and get on with enjoying senior year.