How common is getting "shut out" for "reasonably good" students?

<p><a href=“- YouTube”>- YouTube;

<p>Just been reading along. This is so brutal.<br>
Rejected: Penn & Cornell
Waitlisted: Bucknell (safety school), Case Western, Vanderbilt, Carnegie Mellon
Accepted: Colorado School of Mines & Villanova. </p>

<p>He’s devastated. He isn’t overly shocked abou the ivies - they were reaches. 4.3 gpa. Excellent SAT scores. Competitive and challenging course load full of AP’s. </p>

<p>Waiting on USC. </p>

<p>Seriously, this is brutal. As parents, we have paid thru the nose for hs and am seriously thinking he could’ve done just as well and we’d have more money available for college. </p>

<p>And so excited, we get to do this all over again this year with our rising senior. OH MY!</p>

<p>Obviously Bucknell was not a safety. Are CO Mines and Villanova affordable?</p>

<p>Hey, ncyankee. We are in the same boat. Accepted students day on Monday with my son and a college visit on Saturday with my daughter. </p>

<p>My kid got three acceptances, all safeties, all affordable. Something like ten rejections. We lost count. And two wait lists, one for a safety. And one school we couldn’t afford without merit aid with no merit aid. Gotta love God – He has such a sense of humor! I know that He has held my son in the palm of His hand every day since that night in the NICU when I just wanted him to live and I cannot wait to see what He has planned for Him! it appears to bear no resemblance to my own plans Or my sons but I know it will be amazing!</p>

<p>@usbalumnus: I had the same thought – Bucknell has a 30% admit rate, categorized at Collegeboard as “very selective”.</p>

<p>I think that’s part of the problem – students (and parents) look at the stats and reason (mistakenly) that if their kid’s test score are near the top of the school range, then the school must be a “safety” – but schools are not making their decisions based on test scores. </p>

<p>I don’t see how a school that turns away a majority of its applicants could ever be considered a “safety”. To me, safety equates with guaranteed admission, nothing less. (Of course, a match or even reach school becomes a “safety” once the admission is in hand – so an EA or application to rolling admission school can suffice in many cases).</p>

<p>Agree with calmom. I’m seeing this a lot this year – parents/kids saying they didn’t get into their safety. I’ve seen Bucknell and Lehigh and even Northwestern listed as a safety. In today’s world, it really pays to be conservative – no school with an admit rate under 40 percent is a safety, I don’t care what your kid’s stats are. </p>

<p>Just for the record, I think there are good schools in FL for acting and related fields, but USC is tops. </p>

<p>My g/f’s DD stayed in FL, and has acted in local TV shows filmed in Miami, but she knows she has to move to LA, and is fearful. Your DD will have friends and a network. I don’t think she could do any better at Bucknell nor Davidson. </p>

<p>Does it seem to you that when kids don’t get admitted to schools they thought were safeties, those schools tend to be private colleges?</p>

<p>Anything can happen with the holistic admissions systems of private colleges. State school admissions may be more predictable, at least for in-state applicants. </p>

<p>@arwarw - thanks. gotta love Fleetwood Mac…</p>

<p>@ncyankee - good luck w/ USC…</p>

<p>Northwestern’s RD acceptance rate this year was 11%. I am of the belief that there is very little accurate information being disseminated to high school students about current trends in admissions.</p>

<p>@fireandrain - I’d say “safety” territory is more around 75%+ admit rate – unless it is a school with very formulaic admission standards, such as a state school that guarantees admission based on a certain combination of GPA and test scores. </p>

<p>40% admit rate + strong stats = match. </p>

<p>

</p>

<p>Plenty of accurate information is being disseminated in this forum. If anyone came to the CC Parents Forum and said that Northwestern was going to be their kid’s safety school, several dozen well-informed people would explain in no uncertain terms why this is inappropriate – probably within less than an hour.</p>

<p>Reading the personal tales, I think some of these schools will WL rather than admit. I think they expect the kids with great scores, GPAs, and ECs, will go elsewhere.</p>

<p>If I had a child applying in next few years, I’d encourage rolling admissions, lots of EAs, as well as the state schools (though ours was rolling, so that was the safety).</p>

<p>

</p>

<p>The admit rate has little meaning unless you also consider who is applying and the admissions criteria. For example, College of the Ozarks has a 9% admit rate, similar to MIT. However, both the admission criteria and application pools are completely different at the two schools, leading to very different odds of admissions at MIT and Ozarks for nearly all students. Ozarks has an average ACT of 22 with 19% having a top 10% class rank, while MIT has an average ACT of 33 with 98% having a top 10% class rank. A not in top 10% student with lower test scores likely has a tremendously better chance of admission at Ozarks than MIT. However, this doesn’t necessarily mean it would be easier for all high stat students to get into Ozarks than MIT since Ozarks has unique admissions criteria, such as reserving 90% of the class spots for students with demonstrated financial aid. A high stat student from a wealthy background might have quite poor odds of admission.</p>

<p>Some colleges with more similar applicant pools have very different admit rates for different applicant sub groups,.such as different majors/divisions having different levels of selectivity or reserving few class spots for international students and considering financial need of those students . You also can have issues with schools that do not want to give spots to students who think of the school as a near last choice and frequently reject high stat students who appear to be using it as a safety (Tuft’s Syndrome) and/or look for demonstrated interest, which will not come across in the admit rate.</p>

<p>Alternatively one could use tools like Naviance, scattergrams, material published by the college, and threads on this forum to look at how decisions have turned out for applicants similar to yourself. If you see a lot of similar kids getting rejected, it’s probably not a good choice for a safety. </p>

<p>

</p>

<p>If it has stated auto-admit criteria (e.g. UT Austin top 7% Texas auto-admit), then it can be a safety for students who qualify for the auto-admit criteria.</p>

<p>In the UT Austin case, its admission rate of 47% is very misleading – it is an admission safety for a substantial number of applicants, but a reach for almost all others.</p>

<p>@WWWard, I have to believe that there is some very good reason that your D was meant to go to USC. We will probably see her on TV or in the movies some day! What better place for her area of interest than California? It was just meant to be! I do hope she sees it that way.</p>

<p>Well put, AmericanHopee. You were far kinder than I would have been. When Americans are afraid and abusive of competition from other countries, they lose any claim to the “greatness” such Americans are so desperate to maintain.</p>

<p>Thanks, @HarvestMoon1 – We really appreciate it. She is very appreciative of the opportunity to attend USC. It is clearly a top school for her chosen path, and both the School of Dramatic Arts & L.A. are both extremely well-suited for the profession that she wants to pursue. She also seems to have zero residual bitterness toward this year’s admissions process, which, given the results overall, is a very good sign. But I think that it is also a testament to just how excited she is about attending USC. As for me… reality may be setting in… lol… and I now have to start thinking about setting my 17 yr old loose in L.A. But that is another story… :)</p>

<p>

</p>

<p>How could any parent possibly know why their child’s classmate got into any particular college? That’s just presumptious.</p>