<p>Probably pretty rare. According to the Chronicle of Higher Education*, only 5.5% of entering freshmen students enrolled at a four year college or university which was less than their third choice. This figure includes students who matriculated at their local commuter state universities, although the overwhelming majority of students surveyed were traditional aged students living in a residence hall. </p>
<p>@Hunt, I’m not a big believer in the match school as a requirement. But for the safety to really work the student has to be happy to go there. I do see some students would be crushed to ONLY get into their safety. That’s why I’ve seen some people recommend two safeties so there is at least a choice available.</p>
I don’t know - at a lot of state flagships, the honors college is pretty darn competitive. I’m hearing from several families that the Pitt Honors College and Schreyer at Penn State are full of kids who got into MIT and the Ivies, but since they were EFC full pays, they headed to Pittsburgh and Happy Valley.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, merit money at non-Ivy privates gets harder and harder to get. We know a student who got into UPenn, Georgetown, and Dartmouth who “only” got 20k in merit from Loyola MD and Fordham, making those schools unaffordable for him without loans. He’s now at Schreyer. He’s still taking a little bit of loans, but nothing like what he’d have had to take had he gone to Fordham or Loyola MD.</p>
<p>^We are seeing the same situation in DS applying this year. Getting in seems to be the easy part. Getting merit money (full tuition or close to it) has been very competitive.</p>
<p>I’m hearing from several families that the Pitt Honors College and Schreyer at Penn State are full of kids who got into MIT and the Ivies, but since they were EFC full pays, they headed to Pittsburgh and Happy Valley.</p>
<p>Given the yield rates at MIT and the Ivies, and the data that’s been published on cross admits, I’m finding it hard to believe that Penn State is “full of” kids who were accepted at Harvard, MIT, Yale, etc. and ended up at Happy Valley. When Harvard “loses” an admit, I think it’s usually to MIT, Stanford or Yale. I’m thinking that the number of kids who turn down Harvard or MIT for Penn State numbers in the single digits over a four year span. Hardly “full of”.</p>
<p>Let’s see some numbers here. The small size of the Frosh classes at the ivies and the very high yield rate makes your statement somewhat implausible just from a mathematical perspective, let alone intuitively questionable. </p>
<p>Another one that pops up around here is the “safety” that the student does not really like, but is just a last minute throw-in to an all-reach list. Then the student gets in only to the “safety” and suffers a huge let-down. Students and parents need to remember that the safety needs to be a school that the student actually wants to attend, so as much care needs to be taken to selecting the safety as the reaches.</p>
<p>But wouldn’t many of the shut-out students be doing something other than attending a four year school, such as attending a community college or doing something other than attending college at all? So they would not be captured in counts of frosh enrolled at four year schools.</p>
<p>I guess I also don’t think there are that many truly shut-out students–students taking a gap year because they got in nowhere. I’ve never heard of one at my kids’ school. There are quite a few, though, attending the state flagship who thought they’d be attending a much more selective school.</p>
<p>What about the students heading off to the community college? That seems like a likely destination for students who get shut out of four year schools (probably more so than a gap year).</p>
<p>I don’t know. The ur-anecdote about this on CC, andison, took a gap year. If you thought you had the stats to get into Harvard, would it make sense to go to a community college for a year? If (say) you are now aiming at Tufts, you might prefer a gap year. I guess this raises the following question–what kind of student has this problem? Many, many students apply only to one college, and they get in because they know they will get in. I think this total shutout is rare, and most likely happens primarily to people who are very unrealistic about applying to high-reach colleges.</p>
<p>When I was in high school, Pitt got the top student in a class close to mine, who was admitted to Yale, and probably any other school he wanted to go to. He was from an close-knit southern European family and his father had attended Pitt. He had the highest board scores in the school, and was extraordinarily bright. He went to Pitt, I believe, because his family didn’t want him to be too far from home, and his father told him he’d get him an apartment and his own car, which was relatively unusual back then. They could have easily afforded the Ivy schools. They were already among the most well-off families economically, so the appeal of the Ivies as an path to prosperity perhaps didn’t have the same resonance with them. </p>
<p>But I do think there is more price sensitivity today, especially depending on the families’ means and their expectations for a specific career. If you are targeting med school, or if you are looking a being a Chemical or Mechanical engineering major, you might choose a state school over an elite private. If I had to guess how many matriculants Schreyer and Pitt had who were cross-admits with MIT and Harvard, I’d guess maybe 4-6 per year at the most.</p>
<p>In terms of the original post, some years ago now I “went to school” during a parking lot conversation with the parent of a boy who was a year older than my child at the time. He had the second highest board scores in the class, but with grades that were just a shade below what you might expect. They had focused on the Ivies and Stanford and had Michigan and Wesleyan, I believe, as backups. He was denied almost everywhere initially, and ultimately attended one of the “backup” schools, but the results were a minor trauma to the family and left a big impression on me. I made sure my child had an adequate portfolio of “match” applications to choose from, and that worked OK. Hunt and Erin’s Dad both have an important point. </p>
<p>Full is probably an exaggeration, but I think it’s fair to say there are lots of Ivy admits currently attending honors colleges at their state flagships. I know several. Pitt only takes combined reading and math of 1400+ in their freshman honors programs. Schreyer, which is the honors college at Penn State, doesn’t use SAT as an admission criterion, but its average SAT is just below 2100, which means there are lots of kids there who are higher than that. I didn’t say they all got into Harvard and Yale (I have no idea), just that the Ivies were well represented. I did specifically mention MIT because it does seem that the real computer geeks from Pennsylvania who can’t afford full pay at MIT are going to Pitt and Schreyer. One I know one is a senior was recently offered post grad jobs at Amazon and Red Hat. He was called back at google, but ultimately no offered. I suppose it’s possible these kids are lying about their admissions to the honors college kids I know but I don’t think the numbers show any indication of that. </p>
<p>As I stated, I do know several families who were heartbroken about not being able to afford the Ivies their kids got into but then were pleasantly surprised to see that their kids ended up among their academic peers anyway simply by heading to the honors colleges at Pitt and Penn State, so to me it seems quite plausible that there really are that many talented students there.</p>
<p>I actually asked about this when we visited Schreyer after D was admitted a few years ago, embarrassing frazzled D. (She ultimately decided to go elsewhere, and it was not an easy decision for her to make.) Their response was that they were finding it hard to compete with the generous need based aid given out by HYP in recent years, but were nonetheless succesful in getting students who had been admitted to other Ivies (such as Cornell, Brown, and Penn) and top 20 research univesrities and LAC’s , as well as students who had been offered full tuition at Pitt or other honors collges, to come to Schreyer.</p>
<p>I would guess that this means that every year there is a handful of students who turn down the most selective schools in the country to come to Schreyer or Pitt honors, but many more who turn down other elite schools with lower yields. The honors colleges do seem to get lots of students who have stats that are comparable to students admitted to elite schools, whether they turned down admission offers, applied to PennState as “one and done” and did not even think of looking elsewhere (not uncommon among public school families), or got turned down at all reaches. </p>
<p>Also, “full of” might mean a few dozen students each year, who might be more visible among the few hundred students matriculating at Schreyer than among the larger classes at several elite schools. The numbers of thes students might also be higher in some majors such as physics, than in others.</p>
<p>Interesting question, however (I know for a fact that these students DO exist), and I too would be interested in seeing numbers of corss-admits over the past ten years or so. One thing is for certain - admission to Schreyer and Pitt honors has become increasingly competitive over the years.</p>
<p>I personally know a young woman who went to Pitt over Yale. It was a very painful decision for her and her mother. Dad would not pay for Yale and that was it. She went on to medical school, for which her father, an attorney paid, and the family and student did not take on any debt for college. But it is a regret that she has that she did not get to take the opportunity to go to Yale. It hurts her to this day, and her children will go to Yale or any such school if accepted, as she and her husband at this time have the resources to make it happen. </p>
<p>The fact of the matter, is that even if kids over shoot and get declined by every single school to which they applied, there are still choices out there. In May, a list comes out with those schools that still have space. Many local opportunities are out there with all kinds of open admissions. Maybe you can’t enter in a degree seeking program, but you can certainly take courses and if you do well, it’s no big deal switching over in a term or a year. </p>
<p>Money is a problem for some students and their families, when they had misconceptions on what the college process would give in terms of financial and merit money. We see this on this board a lot where students whose parents tell them they aren’t/can’t pay much of anything, and they begin to see that the colleges are not going to come up with the money. That they do not qualify for any sure thing financial aid and the entitlements are few and you can’t borrow money as teenager in large amounts even for college without parental or other credit worthy assistance. I think every high school college counselor should make it very clear that no colleges out there guarantee to meet FAFSA EFC and that unless one goes to a local state/community school that the EFC is the least one is going to pay. Also that kids can only borrow $5500 freshman year, with the Direct loan increasing slightly thereafter, without parental involvemnt, for the vast, vast majority of students. Instead, too often, from what I’ve seen, the message is to encourage applying with no thoughts of the finances. </p>
<p>I understand why the school GCs do not want to make financial constraints or the perceptions thereof, and that is correct. There is also the fact that low income kids or kids from schools that serve low income areas do not get the opportuniites and encouragement to apply to some of the most generous schools where they could get significant financaial aid. But there should also be a more realistic picture given to students and their parents who read headlines, reports, hear the big fish stories about all those scholarships and progragams and loans out there.
I already know some families at my son’s school who are beginning to get an inkling that their kids’ choices may not be affordable if some money isn’t forth coming and the FAFSA results that they are beginning to understand are not looking promising. Some kids accepted Early Action or Rolling are struggling now with their parents about how they would pay for these schools, and suddenly the SUNY numbers are looking awfully good. Unless those privates on the list come up with some money, that’s where many will go, or to some of the safeties that may give out merit money. </p>
<p>Just two anecdotes: one shut out I know of, a girl who applied to Brown and no where else, and an MIT early admit who went to Rice because the aid was better. </p>
<p>The examples I have known were those who got into UCs (though not the major or campus that they wanted) but chose community college instead. UC-level stats are not Harvard level stats, but I can easily see 3.5 HS GPA, 600s SAT sections students choosing community college over a gap year in such a case.</p>
<p>An MIT admit going to Rice because of slightly better aid is hardly the same as a hypothetical MIT admit going to UT El Paso because it’s less expensive. </p>
<p>Recently I heard stats for the percentage of students taking gap years (on NPR, I think). As I recall, it’s in the low single digits. As for enrolling in community college, how likely is this for a high-stats, over-reaching student? Once you enroll in a CC, you can only apply to another school as a transfer. The better strategy (if you’re aiming for “second tier” after being shut out of the Ivies) would be to take a gap year. So I think the number of shut outs probably can’t be much larger, and is probably much smaller, than the number of students taking gap years. </p>
<p>At my high school, it was not uncommon for people to apply to only Michigan, and if they didn’t get in they’d go to Community College and transfer. So in that sense, yes, lots of people got shut out, but it wasn’t because they made a mistake. </p>
<p>So what about the kids with the stats that could get them into the top privates with parents who have the numbers that say they have to pay, and they can’t/won’t? I knew such a case well. Dad refused to pay. The top schools that accepted her would not give a NCP waiver, nor would they give her aid. Mom was Pell eligible. She didn’t look for schools where generous merit awards were possible and really other than a full tuition award at least, it wasn’t going to happen. She went to a local state U though she had acceptances to a number of highly selective school. Went there and commuted. Applied in May and was accepted though really the app process was supposedly closed, got some financial aid, not a whole lot since she missed out on all of the priority deadlines. Worked part time, commuted, finished in 3 years, went to law school. Her dad did pay off the loans she took in college and later in law school, but he refused to pay for a private college. Felt state U was just fine.</p>