It never really considered saying anything. Just wanted to put it out here.
I do think that their thinking goes somewhat like this: He definitely cannot get into Ivy League schools, but he’s pretty smart, so let’s look at schools where smart people go that aren’t Ivy League Schools.
I’m guessing first/oldest kid?
They’ll learn. Just like all the parents who think their kid is getting an athletic scholarship.
@calmom I understand that humor is sometimes is difficult to convey, but I think it was clearly a joke since I referenced University of Chicago as a “bad” school.
Honestly…I would let this go. These parents need to learn how to use Naviance if your school has it. They need to learn to read and understand a common data set. They need to understand the difference beteeen a reach, match, and sure thing colleges.
But really…they don’t need to learn these things from a friend or acquaintance. But if they ask…you could mention these things as something to learn about. And remind them to discuss college choices with the school GC.
The closest I would suggest you come to giving advice…and even then only IF they ask you for it…is to say…”every student needs at least two very sure thing college choices, some matches, and some reaches. And explain that reaches are schools where really no one is a slam dunk for admissions.
Then…let it go!
Smile and nod, smile and nod.
When I was registering my son for his senior year of HS, another mother, whom I did know from Adam, asked me where my son was applying. When I said,“Yale”, her response was, " No one from my son’s HS had gotten into Yale in years" and then went on to intimate that my son wouldn’t either. I have to say that I found it incredibly rude. While I must admit to my own naïveté about the competitive nature of admissions at the time, I still didn’t appreciate the comment. I agree with the others that there is nothing to gain by saying anything to these parents.
When D and I left the Columbia tour, she said, “Mom, I think we may be overreaching here.” In the 3 years since, that line has been used to great impact in almost every funny conversation that we’ve had…I wouldn’t have given up that tour for anything. 
I would never say anything because it will cause resentment.
To the OP. Please report back how things turn out – where the kid applied, and where ended up. I think the tours you’ve referred to can be educational, and it’s good they’re doing them. Family time. If they’re good lawyers they’ll figure out the kid’s chances and make appropriate adjustments as well as backup plans.
My kid visited UChicago and was like stunned there was a place like this and it instantly felt like home to him. Suddenly he’s motivated by the college process and has some skin in the game for his final test scores and finishing up strong. You also just never know what’s going to motivate a kid. I’m sure plenty of people thought we were nuts for visiting. My kid is a homeschooler/dual enroll student. Almost no one we know has any idea about his academic level or how extensive and deep his extra currics really are. And of course, he still has that 93% chance of rejection, but seeing a little light in the eyes and realizing how certain environments could fit for him was pretty priceless and I couldn’t have predicted it. He is not motivated at all by names or prestige. We visited Roosevelt University on the same trip. It was purely a “fit” feeling for him.
^ @MusakParent, I read today that Steven Hawkings was not a particularly good student until he went to college, and no one had predicted his potential So, you never know…
Just tonight, I was talking to our liability insurance broker and he mentioned his daughter has her heart set on Columbia. I said, “I’m a moderator on this great site, CollegeConfidential, and every year I see kids with amazing stats who don’t get into places like Columbia - it’s REALLY hard for kids to get into top schools these days…” He took it well and said he knows she needs to apply to several schools.
I would go with a version of @MaineLonghorn 's response.
Be enthusiastic about the schools they are touring and add “so it’s no wonder they get so many qualified applicants that it’s hard to count on getting into them.” I’d ask “have you seen any schools that are less competitive that you like?”
It’s not hard to be out of the loop on how the college landscape has changed in the last couple of decades. We had a friend who was like the OP – created a totally unrealistic list. I am close to the kid and urged her to look at a few that were more aligned with her stats (but never put it that way, instead saying “I know you are really interested in xyz. Did you look at ABC school. Their program in that is really strong and is unique in this way.”)
You can’t tell them what they are doing is wrong, but you can plant some right seeds…
Say “There is this great site called College Confidential. You really should join.”
Many colleges that once upon a time were safety schools for good students have become highly selective. Northeastern reportedly has a 19% acceptance rate this year. Boston University isn’t far behind.
I see a few suggestions to have your own kid talk to their kid. I’d never do that — it could backfire spectacularly. Your kid might say something like, “My parents think you won’t get in,” even if that is not what meant him to say, and you are in hot water. I’d steer the conversations to matches and safeties if I could. I’d probably say something like, “Those sound great — it is always good to have some reaches on the list! But admissions admissions have gotten so competitive. We’ve been trying to figure out matches & safeties that work for our little muffin, too.” Then they can take the conversation any way they want to from there.
Maybe ask them if they are using a college counselor. Might be the best money they will ever spend.
Sometimes I think parents lose sight of who the college visits are for. They want to see an ivy so they just go, trying to convince themselves that their kid has a shot.
I’ve seen parents visit schools their kids have no shot at, but the schools their kid actually applies to are more realistic.
How good friends are you with the parent? If pretty friendly, then I would just bring it up in conversation…Junior was looking at East State College as a safety and big State U as a match…what is Billy looking at for his safety?
I had a good friend whose kid was really looking at schools above him and I talked to him and helped give him other ideas so he would have more choice. But after i did that…I backed off.
I like Bopper’s approach, and/or mentioning a school that would be a reach for your kid and saying that even with an ACT of xx and taking honors classes, he knows chances are not good. I certainly would not tell the family that the kid has no change cat those schools but talk in general about how difficult it is to get in and perhaps point them to Naviance if your school has it. I would also guess the GC would temper the parental expectations.
If the kid hangs out at your house, you could also just ask him where he is thinking of and also ask about a safety.
One of my close friends has a S with ivy level stats, applying to Ivy League schools. We had just gone through the process, and my D is similar to her S academically… so I did bring up the subject with her. I basically suggested that he have a few matches and safeties on the list because Ivy League schools are so hard to get into. She listened …and the conversation was not at all stressful.
My issue is with students who have relatively low scores etc and almost all of their choices are schools such as Northeastern. That’s when I bite my tongue …hard…and hope guidance gives them a reality check. I don’t want to be perceived as a know-it-all 