I wonder if this crisis makes for a bit of job security for community college adjuncts… more students forced to attend community colleges… more classes… more adjunct positions – especially for the younger, more tech-savvy ones.
A need-blind college can always tip its admission class toward less FA need without becoming need-aware by giving greater weight to correlates of high SES, such as legacy, playing an expensive travel sport, etc. and giving lesser weight to correlates of low SES such as first generation to college or working to help support one’s family.
However, states will get less tax revenue and have to cut spending to balance their budgets, which could lead to cuts at community colleges (fewer jobs, fewer courses, more students unable to take courses there because they are full) or tuition increases at community colleges to make up the state subsidy reduction.
While next year’s legacies may not be as wealthy as in the past, they are likely to be wealthier than the general applicant pool, so increasing legacy admissions would still be a way of reducing the FA need in the admit pool.
Agreed. But overall we are likely to see a decrease in full pays, and an increase in number of families asking for professional judgment.
Overall, yes the number of full pay private college students will decrease. But each individual college will do its best to maintain its tuition yield (or raise it to compensate for continuing students becoming more FA-needy). Some will be more successful than others, but this will be a negative-sum game with more losers than winners.
The less tax revenue to states will be huge: massive unemployment and no one able to buy anything (declining sales tax).
While IL can use the lower rates to refi their debt, they are in deep doo-doo. Even CA, which has been running a budget surplus will likely receive a huge shock as a large part of the personal income tax revenue is based on cap gains. And so far this year, its cap losses.
State Unis will be taking a hit next year, along with state budgets.
@OneMoreToGo2021 's comment in post #11 above is, in my opinion, worthy of repeating:
“One thing to keep an eye on will be the hits to endowments…”.
We may be entering a recession.
“Need Blind” admissions schools are free to rethink their practices.
I cannot imagine the changes which may occur if a second wave of Covid-19 (coronavirus) hits in the Fall as many health experts predict.
@homerdog: I think applying ED is a wise move for your daughter–a prospective full pay applicant with an outstanding, accomplished extracurricular.
But, I encourage you to watch the financial situation of colleges & universities. If endowments remain beaten down, then consider an ED application to Vanderbilt University–which seems to be her true first choice school.
Concern over a standardized test score & naviance results may no longer be as significant an impediment for an otherwise well qualified full pay applicant who is otherwise a great match for Vanderbilt University.
If ED to Vanderbilt is unsuccessful, then consider EDII to another elite school and apply RD to several schools of interest as the “full pay bump” should still be applicable in my opinion.
In another coronavirus’ possible effect on college admissions thread, @PetraMC offered a clever illustration of an insightful observation:
@PetraMC suggested: That we all hope that the recovery to college & university endowments will be U shaped, but it is likely to be an L.
Same for all of our personal investments.
Any idea on how badly this would affect international students requiring a lot of financial aid?
An international student in need of a lot of aid is probably sunk.
There might be exceptions at schools with giant endowments, and the incoming fall cohort might be somewhat covered, depending upon the colleges’ policies. Applicants for fall 2021 should be prepared to come in with a lot of cash, though.
@selfcontrol: I believe that your very clear & straightforward question leads to a bit of a complicated answer.
The simple answer is that financial aid budgets are likely to be decreased both for domestic & international students.
The more complicated approach involves geopolitical changes in process right now & affect on student visas.
In addition to death & taxes, we can be certain of two more things in the near future:
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The development of a Covid-19 vaccine
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The longterm presence of Russian troops in Italy (which offers multiple warm weather ports on both the Mediterranaen Sea & on the Adriatic Sea with easy access to the Middle East).
Travel restrictions will make it more difficult for all international students. College financial losses (more students needing more FA, endowment losses, state universities losing funding) will make it more difficult for all students needing FA.
@Groundwork2022 @Publisher Thank you for your replies. Do you think this would also affect the admissions for colleges that are need-blind to int’ls, which are Harvard, Yale, Princeton, Amhert, and MIT?
In my opinion, student visa applications for Chinese students may incur much more scrutiny than prior to the outbreak of Covid-19.
This, in turn, will have a significant impact on university revenues.
Lower revenue & lower endowments means less money available for financial aid for all applicants whether domestic or international.
Fewer international students from China means US colleges & universities need to find alternative sources of revenue in addition to cutting back expenses.
@selfcontrol : re: your question above about Harvard, Yale, Princeton, Amherst, & MIT need blind admissions for international applicants.
The answer is not clear at the moment as we do not know what losses their respective endowments have incurred.
The listed schools are among the wealthiest schools in the US; Harvard, Yale, Princeton, & MIT’s endowments all rank in the top 5 among all US colleges & universities (Stanford University being the other university among the top 5).
Again, for those applying from China, I suspect that individual student visas may be much more difficult to obtain than before the outbreak of Covid-19.
Thank you for providing your perspective.
If a second wave of coronavirus (Covid-19) occurs in the Fall, then travel restrictions are likely to affect international students from many, probably most, countries.
If a Covid-19 vaccine is in place, international applicants are likely to be required to have been vaccinated.