Just for the benefit of others, I would gently disagree with you. The pool that takes the SSAT is not a representative sampling of all school kids, it is specifically kids interested in attending selective private schools. To be 79th percentile in such a pool is not bad, it is quite good.
Of course it is only one piece of the puzzle. But the fact you got some offers from such great schools is basically confirmation that was in fact good and not bad.
The ones who got off the wait list last year that we know were freshmen/juniors and are not athletes. Both got in over the summer. There were special circumstances last year as well (the political environment for international kids was uncomfortable and so some accepted backed out), so I wouldn’t necessarily hang any hope on that. It is highly unusual for PA and the other “prestige” schools not to make their yield numbers. PA in particular always tops out for yield. Folks who get in generally (not always) go.
Hill did send out packages last year. I think we got a stuffed ram (the mascot), socks, and playing cards plus candy, etc. I think the tee shirt came from visiting day.
Waitlists are difficult, but they truly mean that you are a good fit and up to par, at this point it becomes less about you and more about numbers, like they might have too many people interested in the same thing//from the same place/some other demographic. Waitlists are something to be proud of, even though they sting. The right thing will happen.
In the abstract, it’d be 20 divided by their historic or projected yield. So if that yield is 80%, then it’d be 25 offers. BUT, I’d hazard two guesses:
The math is fuzzier because not all offers have equal likelihood to yield, by which I mean that the projected yield for a given applicant is not the same as that for another given applicant. Like you’re a double legacy, major $ family, 2 sport athlete in close contact with both coaches, etc etc etc then you’re highly likely to yield. That said, those differences *should* be captured in the overall pool. So maybe the original math holds.
Did they over or under enroll last year? Depending on the answer to this, that may shift the math to say 24 or 26 offers in the example above.
Regardless, congrats to everyone on their acceptances, best wishes to those on wait lists, and for sure, if you have no BS options in-hand, lean into your next best option!
Unfortunately, it is very common in casual discussions for people to be more likely to report scores they are particularly proud of. No one intends that to give others a false impression of the actual distribution of scores, but it can have that effect anyway.
So I completely understand what you felt, but at the same time that was my motivation for saying something. Obviously kids should do their reasonable best on these tests, but then also apply with confidence when they get good scores like yours, even if others are reporting higher scores.
I note I know at the college level, schools are often using sophisticated, individualized yield models along the lines you described, and they can use them to not just try to hit overall enrollment targets, but also any other specific goals. So if they want 10 of Type A they may project they need to offer 15, but for 10 of Type B it only takes 12, but for Type C it takes 20, and so on.
I frankly know less about boarding school admissions, but since some of these schools basically have comparable resources to private colleges . . . I would be a little surprised if none were doing something similar.
Yup that’s my take too. They’re heavily resourced in the grand scheme of things, and the stakes of over/under enrolling sufficiently high, that I’d think they’re all-in on this type of more sophisticated yield modeling and class building.
Congrats on your DD’s results! I look forward to hearing where she enrolls.
I’ve just been lurking, following along on this thread, and I know how worried you were about not getting admitted anywhere. This is an amazing outcome. Congrats!