I can tell you that at our not nearly as famous but feederish private HS, kids with a similar profile who worked closely with college counseling would be on their way to a great outcome.
That might be a HYPSM. It might be some other great private or public university, or LAC. It might be a big merit award. In a few cases it might be outside the US! It would really not be possible to predict exactly which offers would be coming, particularly with a complication in the grade story. But something great.
So my two cents is you should not be scared, you should be excited! As long as you are reasonably open-minded, and work well with college counseling, you are going to have a great result, probably multiple great results to choose between (unless perhaps you get into a favorite early).