This suggests that you need to check the net price calculator on every college. If not affordable based on need-based financial aid, the chance categorization must be based on getting a large enough merit scholarship, not admission.
Your high school should have dedicated college counselors who will be much better at telling you which highly selective private colleges are more and less likely to admit you (even if their basic admission stats like 25th-75th percentile GPA and SAT ranges are similar).