National Merit Cutoff Predictions Class of 2017

Hey @CA1543 ,

I received a SI of 200. I doubt that’ll surpass any of the cutoffs. The past’s cutoff for PA was 216 I think.

-Lakritz

@Lakritz – thanks for letting us know - really appreciate it.

@SLparent – for the chart - @Lakritz - SI 200 TC 1300 --PA

Here we go… updated real scores. 2 separate lists. They are getting longer and harder to work with so if you see mistakes, please let me know. I have to post 2nd table in a separate post…

  1. Scores reported by CC’s:

earthlingo ?? 1360 ??

luvmy3girls 220 1470 AL
chewy7083 217 AL
3dixieboys 209 AL

motherof4sons 209 1410 AR
arizona 223 1500 AZ
tanyat23 223 1490 AZ
zeeke007 218 1460 AZ
mom3eps 216 AZ
sandy11 212 1430 AZ
phoenixmomof2 212 AZ
zeeke007 1490 AZ

futureuniversity ?? 1140 CA
srk2017 228 CA
nightlark 226 1510 CA
chocaddict 226 CA
sdhotmama 226 CA
srk2017 226 CA
worryhurry411 226 CA
hidude45454 225 CA
cybexx 224 1500 CA
calmomofcats 224 CA
lovethebard 224 CA
ynotgo 224 CA
srk2017 222 CA
srk2017 222 CA
stresstasticlife 222 CA
appgodxoxo 221 1470 CA
picola 221 CA
srk2017 220 1480 CA
LAD2266 220 CA
masond123 220 CA
replyback 220 CA
srk2017 220 CA
srk2017 220 CA
hittingthat 219 1480 CA
leafseadragon 219 1460 CA
alexcheng10 219 CA
fisik 218 CA
srk2017 said 4 kids have 218 CA
ambitionsquared 217 CA
dsl411 217 CA
hcmom65 217 CA
juicymango 217 CA
livingproof 217 CA
srk2017 said 2 kids have 217 CA
bdragon 216 CA
cornbread1999 215 1450 CA
confusedhs213 215 CA
tikopiarock28 212 CA
chrispychop 210 CA
mangomadness 206 CA
replyback 1490 CA
replyback 1480 CA

griffinv989 212 CO

ctstrider 225 CT
chilkitty 223 1490 CT
cglynn 223 CT
theamazing77 213 1440 CT
pickmen 209 CT
blue1artic 203 1380 CT

aptrail 225 DC
candjsdad 1490 DC

gatorgrl ?? 1220 FL
tableforsix 225 FL
doraemon33004 223 1490 FL
3boystogo 222 1490 FL
mitrak 222 FL
AJ2017 220 1480 FL
AJ2017 220 1480 FL
AJ2017 218 1470 FL
samgallahan 218 1460 FL
proudpatriot 217 FL
tallymom2017 217 FL
2blessed2b 216 1430 FL
delilahhxc 216 FL
long2181998 216 FL
atr123 215 1440 FL
canadant 215 FL
calchong 212 FL
mom2twodds 210 FL
AJ2017 (3-4 people) 1430-1450 FL
AJ2017 1450 FL
AJ2017 1430 FL

lea111 224-226 1500 GA
lea111 226 GA
stingray2000 225 GA
primenumber2 222 1490 GA
childishambino 218 GA
raiderdore 218 GA
yakisoba 216 1450 GA
gabaseballmom 212 GA

futuremmachamp 218 1470 IA
iabooks 216 1450 IA
kyrieirving2 211 1380 IA
franklin20 207 IA

WGSK88 said12 kids score 219-228 IL
WGSK88 said 33 kids score >=215 IL
jake071999 224 1500 IL
daven 223 1490 IL
asianfang 222 IL
ivysaurusrex 222 IL
dotexe 218 IL
WGSK88 218 IL
WGSK88 said10 kids score 218 IL
glassflowers 216 IL
ican’tsleep 214 IL
jay12321 211 1420 IL
jcdeiskating 210 IL

kikidee9 216 1450 IN

andre 211 1430 KS
jjutgen15 211 1420 KS

dwilliam 217 1460 KY
vandyalum93 214 KY
mompop 212 1410 KY
vandyalum93 211 1410 KY
destin4harvard 210 1400 KY

sportsman88 215 LA

mlp139 228 MA
annmarie4 224 MA
bluekou23 222 1480 MA
walnuthill 222 1480 MA
tarantiny 221 1470 MA
tigraci 221 MA
annmarie4 220 1480 MA
flyingoat 220 MA
massmom 220 MA
annmarie4 209 MA
eminem99 200 MA
annmarie4 1510 MA

ackack 222 MD
burstlimit 222 MD
aron 217 1450 MD
jruesmith7 206 1390 MD
clarebeatrice 206 MD
greeneggsandsam9 206 MD
js1029 198 MD

fun1234 222 ME

celica 223 MI
marccoreusi 208 1400 MI
profdad2021 204 1380 MI

mamelot(for friend) 226 MN
mnpapa29 222 1480 MN
mamelot 220 MN
laikadoodles 218 1470 MN
mraustere 215 1440 MN
shelt29 214 MN
shelt29 212 MN

boglebuff 217 1440 MO
kcedition 211 MO
123field 210 MO

datahead 222 1480 MS
rb681000 218 MS
earlvandorn 211 1410 MS
earlvandorn (for son’s friend) 207 MS
liveonlife 205 MS

paveyourpath 223 NC
racmpc 220 1450 NC
disshar 218 NC
payn4ward 199 NC

ananmatisse 209 1390 ND

drewhamahill 208 NE

suzyq7 221 1480 New England Boarding school

crusoemon 1440 NH

hades321 225 1500 NJ
momnjof2 224 1500 NJ
shiryc 224 NJ
fambrughini 221 NJ
chembiodad 219 1440 NJ
cbow17 212 NJ
ro2400 211 NJ
realtwinkie 208 NJ

timenchanter 220 1460 NV
rustroll 217 NV

mamallama 221 NY
trig2017 221 NY
CA1543 218 1470 NY
mcw2017 215 NY
liibigidiot 213 1430 NY
zaarp 213 NY
srod99 211 1400 NY
starjoy8 195 1260 NY
mdcmom 194 NY

aaronuhs 225 OH
flashk 223 1490 OH
garyasho2 220 1480 OH
enforece88 220 1470 OH
milfordeagles 219 1470 OH
sberry26 218 1440 OH
ohtocollege (friend) 216 1450 OH
ohtocollege 215 1440 OH
ohiodad51 213 OH
violinviolamom 210 OH
violinviolamom 190 OH

catook 216 1450 OK
hopefulmomof6 214 1430 OK
evan99 213 OK
catook-27 juniors with >1400 OK

studious99 222 OR
danc3rmrm 218 OR
hm1101 214 OR

cgonzalez108 ?? 1320 PA
kjflhd 228 PA
engineur 215 PA
classof2017 206 PA
lakritz 200 1300 PA

gghteah 204 RI

irishtwins 206 1340 SC

dakotadelsuf13 206 SD

likestowrite 222 TN
smilingalong 220 TN
higheredrocks 215 TN
isalck32 211 TN
mkumar17 210 1420 TN

sammieb (classmates) 2-3 people 216+ TX
ross’ friend ?? 1520 TX
speedy2019 (friend) ?? 1520 TX
speedy2019 (friend) ?? 1510 TX
ross’ friend ?? 1500 TX
curlypie99 ?? 1490 TX
ross’ friend ?? 1490 TX
ross’ friend ?? 1460 TX
ross’ friend ?? 1430 TX
sammieb (post 1851) 228 1520 TX
sammieb (post 1851) questionable? 228 1520 TX
maksbow 227 TX
toxichash 226 1510 TX
cardinalcyn 223 TX
sb2017 223 TX
slparent (friend) 221 1480 TX
micgeaux 221 TX
tgirlfriend 221 TX
itsgettingreal2017 219 1470 TX
cgsarat71 218 1470 TX
ross’ friend 217 TX
ross’ friend 217 TX
ross’ friend 217 TX
sammieb 216 1460 TX
sciencenerd2017 216 1440 TX
micgeaux 215 1440 TX
speedy2019 215 TX
eljefe123 214 TX
ross’ friend 214 TX
ross 213 1420 TX
ross’ friend 213 TX
slparent 212 1430 TX
ctaylors6 212 TX
ross’ friend 211 TX
svoll123 211 TX
slparent ( friend) 209 1420 TX
justanormaldude 203 1390 TX
tgirlfriend (son’s friend) 202 TX
tgirlfriend (son’s friend) 198 TX
tgirlfriend (son’s friend) 197 TX
tgirlfriend (son’s friend) 195 TX
tgirlfriend (son’s friend) 190 TX
tgirlfriend (son’s friend) 189 TX
tgirlfriend (son’s friend) 182 TX
tgirlfriend (son’s friend) 180 TX
tgirlfriend (son’s friend) 175 TX
tgirlfriend (son’s friend) 160 TX

slaudsmom 220 1480 UT

readyornot1 ?? 1510 VA
crazym0m 224 1500 VA
novadad99 221 VA
thinmints 220 1470 VA
nomusicnolifex 220 VA
jrkick64 215 VA

waldeizhere 225 1500 WA

halfmoon22 216 1450 WI

picuberoot 222 1490 WV
oechols 201 1300 WV

eragon314 226

lovesmath 226

bobbbbb 225 1500

collegefreak 225

footsondaughter 225

sincerelove 224

ketchup 223 1480

jjundy 221

merething 221

ananyadoodles 220

mtrosemom 219

knowledgeless 218

mtrosemom 218

perch1024 218

chew7083 217

wvuhopeful 216

pnwfam 214

stlmo62 213

amyandscott 211

joewellen 210 1430

phudou193 210 1370

nwmom2boys 210

pannaga 209

pannaga 208

smileydinosaur 205

addalinemore 204 1350

buffalo 203

szgardengirl 200

nillupa 192

hopeforthebest 1200

2nd table - Scores by non CC’s:

jordan 214 ??
justcurious 211 ??

john (many friends have) 223-228 AZ
john 224 AZ
polly 216 AZ
samantha 214 AZ

joe 221 CA
jj 220 CA
gerard 219 CA
henry 219 CA
nicholas 219 CA
ravs 211 CA

julie 221 CO

william 216 CT
ross 208 CT

ehtan 223 DC
ethan (twin) 223 DC

levster 210 FL
tom 210 FL

daira 218 1470 GA

don 210 ID

liz 216 IL
tammy 214 IL
luhar 211 IL
pat 210 IL
amy 208 IL

emma 211 KS
will 211 KS
may 206 KS
benjamin 203 KS

mark 221 MD
amanda 215 MD
eric 214 MD

hilary 212 ME

eric 215 Mid Atlantic Boarding school

zhen 215 MN

mike 220 MS
anshul 198 MS

dylan 205 MT

baarkley 221 NC
jennifer 218 NC

jenna lee ?? 1470 NH Boarding school

jo 214 NV
stef 198 NV

chacob 216 NY
john 213 NY

nancy 206 OH
sam 206 OH

stacy 219 student overseas

maanil 210 TN
joe 206 TN

zola ?? 1350 TX
aamir 222 TX
neal 220 TX
cody 218 TX
bill 214 1450 TX
gary 213 TX
deborah 212 TX
jason 212 1410 TX
ron 212 TX
cody’s friend 211 TX
tim 211 TX
laura 208 TX
julie 206 TX
neal’s friend 192 TX

devin 216 VA
sarah 216 VA

tk 218 1430 WIS

@SLparent – Thanks sooo much - I think having this real data is very helpful and greatly appreciate your compiling the charts. :slight_smile:

@CA1543 no problem. Thanks for passing along the links, scores, etc…

my sons friend Me also had a 222 another friend 216(academic decathlon kid)and another friend 1362 all from Maine they were the smart gates math kids or English kids

@SLparent

Thanks for the data! I was curious and did a histogram. 358 observations. Lots of disclaimers - small sample size, skewed highly, etc etc. but in

But interesting nonetheless. Unfortunately I can’t paste the picture but here are the percentages.

228 1.4
227 0.3
226 3.1
225 3.9
224 3.4
223 5.3
222 5.6
221 5.3
220 7.0
219 3.9
218 7.3
217 5.3
216 6.7
215 4.5
214 3.9
213 2.8
212 4.2
211 5.6
210 4.2

It’s easier to see in graphic form but there are some clusters in the curve, at least of this small sample.

@MomNJof2 that is interesting…but what does it tell us?

Some have speculated that the distribution of scores won’t be perfectly normal, but rather have some lumps. This admittedly small sample supports that idea. But it’s not enough to draw any real conclusions.

did any of you check today’s Google doodle? relevant to PSAT :slight_smile:

Interesting. Lump at 220, 218, and 216. And you really don’t see much above 226. 223 is when things generally start to increase.

It could just be the sample but I’m guessing that between 220 and 223 is where you see a lot of the highest scoring states - that might also be where a large number of kids would be just making or missing the cut-off.

Interesting that 219 didn’t have more. 358 is not really that small a sample.

One caveat is that it’s possible some scores are double counted. @SLparent got some off the prep-scholar website and other sources and it’s always possible that some of those posters are also posting here under another moniker.

Here a
Re a few more score percentages

209 1.4
208 2.2
207 0.6
206 3.4

The numbers at each SSI drop off significantly after 206 which is the result of the skewed sample group on this post.

@MomNJof2 Do your percentages include both tables of mine? Thanks

I agree that it’s interesting, and that it’s hard to draw any conclusions. For example, there’s probably a very strong bias among the people that are here towards scores that are close to a cutoff in their state. Is anyone with a 202 in CA going to stick around and follow 150 pages of posts?

If you do a histogram by state, I bet there are humps somewhere in the range between the percentile-predicted cutoff and the concordance table predicted cutoff. So for CA, that would be I guess 215 - 220 or so. For other states it would probably be lower.

Does that show that there are lots of scores in that range? Or is it just a demonstration of the bias among people around who are posting their scores…

@slparent yes I think I grabbed both lists, two posts. I tried to clean up to isolate just the SSI but undoubtedly there i are a few errors.

@theshadow yes I agree there is likely some self selection in the data. I think my D is probably close to her cutoff so I have been following this. If she got a 228 I would have patted her on the back and given myself a pat for being such an awesome parent and stopped obsessing over the cutoffs /:slight_smile:

Also I am an analyst and I like to analyze things. I don’t know that it really tells us anything but it was weirdly satisfying.

None of these analysis matters unless you get each School (depending up on each State) actual data from each School with number of NMSF average in previous years then you can predict close enough. Only high scorers will stick around here as other poster stated. This is also not a exact science but it will be close to the real cut-off! Percentiles/concordance and other site predictions are all will be way off from the actual cut-off. So, don’t sweat on those. Instead contact the School and get the averages on the high end above 215 or 220. More the School data is better from each state.

Schools are helpful as data points since they tend to churn out so many a year, and even if it varies you have a range to work with.

Our problem is that D3’s HS counselors aren’t even focusing on this AT ALL till at least this Wed. when the kids are rumored to get their paper scores. Seems the online release (even several weeks late) and all those stats available to the GC’s have not prompted ours to get a move on. They probably welcomed the delay because it gave them more time to work with the kids at the other end of the college prep spectrum (esp. seniors who are trying to get accepted somewhere - or graduate). My guess is that they are just now starting to look at PSAT stuff and figure out how the class did . . .

@MomNJof2 – wonder - what percentage is under 210? thanks.