National Merit Cutoff Predictions Class of 2017

If anyone cares, my school has 17 students in the 99th percentile based on SI Index and it had 6 NMSF last year. The cutoff for KY was 210 last year, and that was somewhere in the mid-98th percentile.

@ca1543 sorry there just weren’t a lot of data points below 206 in the sample. See post 2293.

@mamelot I agree, I called the GC to get some info. She hadn’t even opened the excel file with the school download yet. The best data will come with the state reports whenever they are released


Since it was over 1700 posts ago on this thread I’ll re-summarize and add to some anecdotal information from my GC in ID. Idaho typically goes slightly into the 98% percentile for cutoff score (which historically ranges from 207-211) to get its 80 or so awardees. Idaho has been doing Common Core for a couple of years. PSAT is a school day test for our district and all the kids in the school take it.

Our district has about 20 of the semi-finalist in the state, but our school has maybe one or two a year.

GC said they had:
10 students in the top 1% for SI and Total Score (2% of the student body)
About 25 kids scored above 199 for SI (5% of the student body)

I can’t see a 10 fold increase of NMSF in our school.

D had 1390 / 206 – Great score but we are hoping for commended. Probably missed NMSF by 2 or 3 questions. Guessing the cutoff for Idaho will be 210 - pretty much unchanged from last year.

I have posted this before, but I asked our GC how many at 217 or above and they got back to me that there were 4 students at 1460 and above (I think giving me that b/c my child had a 1460 and 217). I had to explain that that was not what I was after
because as we all know
the total scores can produce different SIs. So, I went back to the GC and she said they did not have the SIs. Well, I don’t see how this can be true. The GCs at my child’s school are the ones who printed off the electronic reports and handed them out. Those reports had the SIs on them. They have the data
just not sure why they won’t share. I finally went to the head GC today and asked for the information. I believe last year our school in CA had 2 NMSF and so that is why I want to know how many 217 and above
I do believe the current year class is a much stronger academic class, but I think getting the 217s and above will tell me something
I have a feeling the 217 just won’t cut it in CA and it will be 219 or above.

@destined4harvard That is very interesting. Do you know the breakdown at all. Maybe the statisticians in this group could used that.

@AJ2017 I will have the numbers tomorrow hopefully, but my guidance counselor was in a hurry to leave today.

I have a copy of the excel file and the SI is on there. It is huge so maybe she does not know where to look for it. It is a very cumbersome file with more than 1000 students at this particular school. I was able to arrange it by SI in descending order. Very interesting


@azcpamom - You’re teasing us. Please share.

some info from our school. We have averaged 10 - 12 nmsf/year. we have 20 juniors with a 210 or higher and 5 with a 219 or higher. Texas school

@hcmom65 Respond to your post #2304. Idk what is it about these GC’s but they don’t seem to want to give out specific info. that we are looking for. I’ve been back and forth with my daughter’s GC since last week (3 different emails asking for info in different ways) and today I’m getting some info but not exactly what I’m looking for
not specific enough
maybe some statisticians can help me. And I think I’m done with her bc I don’t want to annoy her since she’s gonna write that rec. letter probably.

These are the questions I asked:

  1. Does our school host a parents’ meeting to share statistics of PSAT results
 just numbers and scores and no names
.this year’s vs. lat year’s results. I’m doing my own research and reaching out to the community.

  2. How would you characterize the scores you are seeing from our school (I stole this from speedy2019) hoping I would get really good numbers. NOT.

Many 220+ scores?
Many 210-219 scores?
Many 200-209 scores?

Her response "We do not host any meeting regarding the PSAT. We are just now in receipt of the hard copies and are attempting to get the mailout prepared. I can tell you that the mean total score for the 11th grade is as follows:

Total score – 1232
Mean Evidence Reading and Writing Score is 619
Mean Math Score is 613

We have seen some strong scores on this year’s PSAT but please remember there is no frame of reference since this is a brand new test. It cannot be compared to any of the previous PSAT tests given in the past. There are a few articles being floated around that infer that the new scores are inflated. You might want to read the link I have included for a better understanding of some of the concerns surrounding the new PSAT".

These 2 links she sent me are already circulated on this board
nothing new.

Our student body for class of 2017 is 229 and all juniors took the test. Some stats for our school

Graduating Class of: 2016 2015 2014 2013

Semifinalists 6 1 5 4
Commended Students 21 25 15 25

I don’t think these scores are screaming high right? My daughter’s score 1430, her friend 1480, another one 1420, 1400, 1380. But she said she heard there are several maybe 10 higher scores than hers but I can’t verify that.

Can someone help me interpret these means?

@azcpamom – wow – really – so can you share some important info from the report? Remind us what state and can you share -number of semi-finalists you school typically has if you know & then - how many students are in certain bands of SI - 220-225, 215-219, 210-214, and how many are below 210? Do you happen to see the average/mean for the school & the state? thanks so much!!

@azcpamom From your post, you have the goldmine of data that will be very helpful to understand how the PSAT SI scores are playing out. PLEASE let the readers here know the critical details, and I can assure you they will be thanking YOU many times before having a restful sleep after a long time! :slight_smile: The anxiety is getting heavier, and we have the IOWA poll tonight to add to it!

It would be great to get some real data.

Well the head of our GC said they don’t have the SI numbers. He went on to basically question why I would want these numbers, that I need to wait until September and that he knows of no other school giving out this private information and on and on. SO RUDE!!! He basically said that if anyone else is claiming to have numbers they really do not. I am so taken aback. I know that it is my child who goes to high school, but I can be an interested parent. I find the research and statistics so interesting. Obviously this doesn’t give us anything concrete to go by
all for fun and interest. I am just appalled at the email he sent and given this is a private school.

@hcmom65 maybe that’s why ALL I will get is the means, no SI’s

@hcmom65, many GCs won’t give out any info. Don’t take it personal. Although, he doesn’t need to be rude when he says no.

I don’t want to bother by daughter’s GC. I need a letter of rec from her. So I’ll just wait.

@mphill1tx, thanks for the info. That is the first positive anecdotal report for Texas. The numbers imply cutoff is below 219. Probably between 210-219. Still a big range.

The range matches the info I received from daughters tutor. Only a few 220+, mostly 210-219 SI high scores.

Very much appreciate everyone’s input – keep it coming. :slight_smile:

My son received an SI 218 (720RW/740M) in Virginia. Looks like that’s a borderline score for Virginia (and a shaky one at that), although I’m encouraged to see Testmasters’ cutoff at 218. However, the anecdotes are hard to ignore. If they are to be believed, Virginia may have a cutoff of 221, possibly 222. (And wouldn’t be surprised to see DC at 224.)

Thomas Jefferson High School in Northern Virginia has a whopping 40+% of all NMSF in Virginia each year (last year, it was 42%). It’s a math-heavy school, and Virginia is not a Common Core state, so those factors might combine to possibly result in a cutoff of 218. (Our high school produces 2-3 NMSF per year.) All the best to everyone.

@hcmom65 Sorry to hear that GC from your child’s school is not giving the data which has no privacy details but only average numbers one is asking for. I don’t see why it has to be secretive? You are not asking for which child scored what? You are only asking how many children scored higher than your child. Hopefully other Schools from your state will have some data so that you can deduce from those results.