Thanks for your comments 
Unfortunately, my child will need a rec also from her high school as I believe most colleges ask for this and 1 or 2 more from teachers. I hope this will not hurt her…but I tend to believe that they will be fair to her as the student, even if they don’t care for me. The funny part is is that I don’t ask for much from them and stay out of the dealing with my child and her counselor and the school. My child is a high performing student and I am sure they appreciate that…oh well…I still love reading this board and all of the guesses, analysis, etc. It is very enjoyable and the great minds on this Board make it always so fun to read posts!!
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Digging the past, look like someone has seen GC. Does it help?
Link http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/discussion/comment/19167258/#Comment_19167258, posted by @gasenioryear
@suzyQ7 It is confusing but to answer your question, no they are not the same. User percentile national is your user percent based on your psat score (cr/w + math). SI percentile is the percent range your SI index fell in.
To further demonstrate that they are two different things, the boy who made a 207 and 99 percent SI percentile, only had a 1320 total psat score but reading/writing was much higher than math and since it counts 2/3, thus the higher SI index. His PSAT user percentile index on his score report is 98%, but his SI index is 99%, of course to account for his SI is stronger than his psat score since his reading/writing counted mre, and in his total psat score R/W counts equal to math. i think for NMSF SI percentile is the one to be concerned with, and that is on your GC’s page.
Link http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/discussion/comment/19165844/#Comment_19165844, posted by @gassenioryear
OK… everyone is looking at national percentiles for scores to try and estimate percentiles for SI. if you are in 99 percentile for SI then that means I believe you are in top 15,000 ( of approximately 1.5M juniors who took test) and will definitely be at least commended, but have a great shot at least for NMSF. But it still depends on state.
An insight no one else on CC seems to know yet, or has mentioned. Our GC asked me to send official score report and share that info with her, because schools will not get this until Jan. 29 and she wanted to see what they looked like in case students started asking questions. She only has a spreadsheet. But then she called me in her office Thursday afternoon to share what CB sends counselors. She showed me a column that was “new” this year from previous years. It actually lists the PERCENTILE OF EACH STUDENTS SI NATIONALLY. she said that was a big indicator of NMSF potential. Obviously the 50,000 group will fall into the 98th percentile, but students in the NMSF SI 99 percentile have a great shot (not guarantee) at NMSF. on that chart, with her students, the lowest SI that was still in 99 percent was 207. SO that is great news for 207 and above. But she had no other students make any score higher than 190’s after that so I don’t know where 99 percent cutoff for SI stops. Eventually if people in lower 200’s could ask GC for their % for SI, we could find out where it changes from 99%to 98%.
@mphill1tx - thanks for this. This is the best / most specific anecdote I’ve seen recently. It includes (A) the # of NMSF from your school (and it’s a non-trivial number), (B) a threshold which would make more NMSF, and (C) a threshold which would make less.
Most of the anecdotes imply that scores have gone up, though they’re not specific enough to make an actual guess. From this anecdote, you could definitely guess a TX cutoff of something like 213 or 214. I guess that’d be down a lot from 220 last year.
The more of these specific anecdotes we can collect the better!
@azcpamom - the most helpful thing you can give - which I think doesn’t violate any privacy - is the following. If you had 10 NMSF finalists last year from this school - report the 10th highest score (or average the 10th highest and 11th highest). If you have 5 NMSF last year - report either the 5th highest score (or average the 5th highest score with the 6th).
IOW, you’d be reporting the number that, if that was the cutoff, you’d have the same number of NMSF this year as you had last year.
@mphill1tx Were the 5 juniors 219 and higher part of the 20 juniors with 210 and higher? So, 15 juniors between 210-218???
@dallaspiano – and others who see GC reports - Just wonder – does the GC report breakout students SIs that are in the 99+%ile or does it put them all in the 99%ile range? And perhaps you can ask if the National percentile is of actual test takers or is just based on the research study group - I am not sure we have gotten a definitive answer, have we? Thanks so much!
@thshadow From looking at the data around here, I’d say that having the number of NMSF change by 50% year over year is not unusual. The std dev is somewhat high. Any cutoff that yields those results would not be unreasonable. This assumes schools that produce significant numbers of NMSF, though. Schools with only a few have too much variance. That being said, schools that traditionally produce small numbers of NMSF are valuable too, in that I wouldn’t expect schools that previously had 1-2 to suddenly have a dozen or more.
So, if you had 10 NMSF last year, I would expect 5-15 this year. 0-2 is quite unlikely, as is 25+
If you had 15 last year, 8-22 would be expected this year. Etc.
I agree @mphill1tx provides helpful data. @destined4harvard and @idahohusker do as well.
@micgeaux Yes, that is correct, the 5 are part of the 20. So 15 between 210-218
@mphill1tx Thanks for this info – http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/discussion/comment/19244794/#Comment_19244794
– if by chance you learn how many are in the 217-218 range that also would be of interest. Test Masters is predicting a 217 cut off for Texas but who knows - could be higher or lower. At least your data does not show huge high skewing and since your school typically has 10-12 NMSFs, but only 5 students this time with a 219 or above, that builds a degree of confidence in some of the predicted cut off ranges. Any idea if there is a focus on prepping for he PSAT at your school? Thanks again so much for sharing this info!
@CA1543, thank you for asking whether we can have “break out of SI 219 at the start of 99+%.”
I am a true believer (CB data, their experimental sections, statistical data records …etc). I have reviewed their data on SAT since 2006 to 2015. Focus on their lowest 99+%, it ran from 99.50 to 99.57, it’s normally at 99.54. There is no time in the past that it comes up to 99.70. For 2015, we can associate with SI of 219 (lowest 99+%), if it does happen then it will be a historical landmark
But to illustrate +% range in both old and new definition (Your percentile indicates the percentage of a typical group of 11th grade College Board U.S. test takers who would have had scores at or below your score")
2013 SAT data table (http://media.collegeboard.com/digitalServices/pdf/research/SAT-Percentile-Ranks-Composite-CR-M-W-2013.pdf)
Score…#stu… 99+%…Old…New DEF (interpretation as with Definition B))
2400… 494…99+…99.97…The last 494th - with other 493 students who score 2400 - is at 99.97%
2390… 245…99+…99.95…The last 245th - with other 244 students who score 2390 - is at 99.95%
2380… 434…99+…99.92…SO ON and SO ON
2370… 413…99+…99.91
2360… 641…99+…99.89
2350… 660…99+…99.82
2340… 890…99+…99.77
2330… 897…99+…99.71
2320… 1,188…99+…99.64
2310… 1,187…99+…99.57…
2300… 1,237…99.+…99.50…The last 1237t -with other 1236 students who score 2300 is at 99.50%
In summary,
- I do not see any impact or change due to new definitions
- As true believer, I do not see 99+% start with SI 214 can go to SI 219 - unless CB wants to shame itself as an unreliable company.
- Anything can happen as " breakout students SIs that are in the 99+% tile ", but nothing like this happened since 2006
- CB had more than enough data in order to publish their Jan 7 of 2016 report, since they had at least two months after the last 2015 PSAT (10/28/2015)
I am young and I am also very active with discussion board. I made analysis based on many flaws or assumptions, by the same time I recognized many gaps, insufficient math models,inappropriate data concepts from others (even to some I admire the most in this thread). How do I say, we - CC posters - do not have “the necessary and sufficient conditions” to make a close call on cut off estimate. Anything wrong with this, heck no … we do everyday
Your kids or yourselves or interested viewers of this thread probably know someone got perfect Math scores from both SAT and ACT. Are they good in Math? Maybe or maybe not, but if you ask them in details they probably tell you is in order to get perfect scores students have to solve the most complex or most difficult ones with simpler approaches in shortest time but not by traditional ways.
@CA1543 . Yes, our school does focus on PSAT prep, but not any more or less this year than in past years. Will report back when I have more info.
Anecdotally of course, our GC told me only that my DD was highest in her school with her 1480, but that there were several others at 1470. Her school typically only has one to 3 semi finalists a year. He didn’t mention index numbers. It will be interesting since she had a perfect math score, but it carries less weight, so her 220 will probably be beat by some of those kids with a lower total score. So we either have a good year this year as far as number of SF, or else none of them made it. Guess we wait til Sept…She is in Utah.
These are not new score reports but just with more info on the breakdown of SIs. My child’s school in FL that typically has between 3-6 NMSF/year has 3 students with SI between 218 to 220, 3 students 215 to 217, and 6 students between 205 to 214. This could support Testmaster’s prediction of FL cut off of 215. A friend who has older children that graduated from this school told me there was a year the school had 12 NMSF. Although that was several years ago when the cut off had fallen into the 98 percentile for FL and that had added some students to the total that might not have been included other years. So who knows but it is fun to speculate.
@dallaspiano – Thanks for all your great work – maybe you can get some independent study credit for this
You wrote “There is no time in the past that it comes up to 99.70. For 2015, we can associate with SI of 219 (lowest 99+%), if it does happen then it will be a historical landmark” and
"As true believer, I do not see 99+% start with SI 214 can go to SI 219 - unless CB wants to shame itself as an unreliable company.
- Anything can happen as " breakout students SIs that are in the 99+% tile “, but nothing like this happened since 2006”
Based on your review, you are comfortable - at least with current info you are seeing on CC and elsewhere with 214 being at 99%tile - is that correct?? I am still on the fence about I confess but 219 seems rather high I agree.
@CA1543, “on the fence” is the safest spot on this CC thread
@slaudsmom Yes without index score it’s going to be hard as 1450 (with high score in CBRW) will get one to 218 index score matching a child with total score of1470 with perfect Math score who also has 218. So, index score is the only way to get an idea. Good luck.
@dallaspiano I’m curious about something. Please look at post 2079 in this thread.
http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/discussion/comment/19234638/#Comment_19234638
What’s your prediction for the Illinois cutoff, and how many NMSF do you think that school will have this year?
@dallaspiano Next question. Please look at post 2303 in this thread.
http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/discussion/comment/19244516/#Comment_19244516
What’s your prediction for the Idaho cutoff, and how many NMSF do you think that school will have this year?
@dallaspiano Last question. Please look at post 1534 in this thread.
http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/discussion/comment/19223351/#Comment_19223351
What’s your prediction for the Oklahoma cutoff, and how many NMSF do you think that school will have this year?