@NathanBN at 2455: Thanks! I had stopped reading the comments awhile ago. I wonder what their new data set is.
This will add fuel to the fire here LOL.
@CaucAsianDad Forgive me if I am missing something and I surely could be, but to me looking at it, the info seems it would support a cut off of like SI 215 predicted by testmasters. Although it seems so hard to know when you just look at the TS. But a TS of 1450 would equate to a SI of 214 to 221 and probably on the higher end if students did better on the english portion compared to the math. So the school will have at least 5 NMSF I would think and probably a few more that scored in the 1430 to 1450 depending on their breakdown. So the effort to increase NMSF was probably somewhat successful and potentially very successful depending if the True Believers are correct. I hear your frustration that your daughter was not introduced to conics in Algebra 2, probably because of changes in curriculum or who knows. I suspect the questions would not have been that difficult had she been exposed before. However, if it is any consolation, our private school never undertakes any attempt to prepare students for the PSAT. Also, it sounds like a pretty good school if they historically produce that many NMSF.
@WGSK88 - I agree that your school’s anecdote is implying a cutoff of say 218. But I think it’s also true that the IMSA (?) anecdote is clearly implying around a 209 cutoff. (If you disagree with that prediction from the given data, can you explain why?) Maybe the IMSA anecdote is just wrong. But there’s nothing crazy about anecdotes from 2 schools predicting completely different cutoff scores. Every year there are big swings in # of NMSF from some schools. And I expect it will be even bigger this year. So if both anecdotes are factually correct, then either IMSA will have way less NMSF than usual, and/or your school will have a lot more. :shrug:
@Tgirlfriend how does the (newly revised) Testmaster’s 219 for TX compare with the anecdotal evidence here?
Michael wrote this at 4:04 PM - “Hi Sammy, we’re making a new update tonight, and it suggests that the projected cutoff might even be slightly lower than what the actual cutoffs might be– specifically for Texas, we’re predicting a 219 as the cutoff.”
Are there any Plano parents here? Anecdotal data from one of those schools would be very helpful for a Texas prediction.
@itsgettingreal17 …I am from East Texas…not the metroplex. @dallaspiano …what do you think? @ Speedy2019…what about your thoughts? @SLparent …any input?
@Mamelot …I was good with the 217 cutoff hoping it would be even lower. 219 out of 228 is not a lot of room. I was thinking the cluster for Texas was around 215 - 218
I think Virginia’s cutoff is going to be driven by how well the students at Thomas Jefferson High School performed. Last year, TJ had 164 NMSFs out of the 390 allotted to the state (TJ has around 450 students to give you an idea how concentrated the achievement level is at the school). On the other hand, TJ is known more for math/science and less for English, so perhaps the weighting on reading and writing might slightly impact the cutoff downward, together with Virginia not following Common Core. We’ll know more tonight after Testmasters posts its projected cutoffs.
From what I’ve heard I think 219 is really on the high side for Texas. DS’s HS did some prep and expected an increase in NMSF from last year when they had 3. If its really 219, they will most likely have less. DS’s 216 is in the top 5 at his HS with a junior class of over 600.
@VABogart – are you in Fairfax county or TJHSST?
Gotta say - such intrigue now with Test Masters saying they got a lot of data & will be revising their cut off estimates. – wonder if we can learn where the data is coming from.
They seem to say this re Cal.:
“A 221 should be good for California, but given that this is an estimation, it’s no guarantee. However, with a 221, we feel like you have an excellent shot at semifinalist”
And generally
“Hi, we’re planning on releasing an update in the next day or so, but the gist of that is our projected cutoffs seem to be in the ballpark”
Re Texas “Michael says:
February 3, 2016 at 6:12 pm
Hi Teresa, with a 221, we believe you have a very good chance at becoming NMSF for Texas.”
Another Q&A –
Since I got a SI of 215 in NY and the table says NY’s expected cutoff would be 217, what is the range of scores that you would predict for Semifinalist in NY? (ex: 215-219)
Reply
Michael says:
February 3, 2016 at 4:10 pm
Hi Hannah, these are just estimates, and a general rule of thumb is +/- 2 points is a good ballpark for how the official cutoff might fall.
So who knows how much data they have but I would not be surprised if they post a range of SI’s rather than 1 number - we’ll see - some of their folks say the new cut off projections are coming tonight or tomorrow & others say check next week.
I would love to know what data they are getting.
@CA1543 They say they are posting the update tonight. I think it will be much of the same. All their comments say they are still keeping commended at 210, which still seems a bit high. So the range will probably be 210-224/225. I think the difference between this upcoming posting and their prior one is that they will say they are confident about the concordance projections whereas before they were on the fence.
@thinmints We’re in Fairfax County. My son goes to Marshall High School in Tysons, VA, which usually gets 2-4 NMSFs (two last year). We’re close to TJ but decided not to apply, as we believe the IB Program at Marshall a better fit for our son.
@VABogart, is that the only town it would be listed under? If so, they had no NMSF the year before (class of 2015).
The new update from testmasters is on their website. It is tough news for many! We spent lot of time hoping, it is what it is. http://collegeadmissions.testmasters.com/psat-scores-cut-national-merit-2016/
@replyback - Why do you think the update is up? I don’t see any explanation / announcement of a recent one…
Note they also have this article:
http://collegeadmissions.testmasters.com/update-psat-scores-cut-national-merit-2016/
Also, some of Michael’s comment imply the cutoffs will be lowered slightly:
Michael says:
February 3, 2016 at 4:13 pm
Hi Dave, we’re posting another update tonight, and it seems to suggest that the concordance table is slightly lower than what we expect, though it is in the same ballpark.
Reply
Michael says:
February 3, 2016 at 4:14 pm
Hi Dave, we’re posting another update tonight, and it seems to suggest that our projections are in the right ballpark, if not a bit too conservative.
I think the last comment in particular implies that their cutoffs were “too conservative”, which means they have to lower them.
The update is up, yes, Before they had CA at 219, now they have CA at 222 , here goes so many dreams of posters and visitors! They did mention in the post to someone that 221 for CA ,someone a has chance and 219 someone in the “bubble”. The cutoff of 222 is on the higher side, may be they are bit cautious or may be they have data. Tomorrow our school will discuss student score, from a school which has large number of NMSF, may be will learn something there that give hope!