@candjsdad, many schools show their act/sat mean scores on their website, frequently under a “school profile” option. But for some reason, they seem much more secretive about PSAT data. But I don’t understand why…
@CaucAsianDad I hear you. Florida has certainly had some problems implementing some its new curriculum. However, the Florida’s students mean on this PSAT was 1086 whereas the national mean was 1009 (info provided by our GC and published in our school newspaper). Believe me, it surprised me too. Someone else on this thread told me that Florida’s mean SAT is higher than average, or something like that. We could certainly look that up. Testmaster’s prediction of 215 might not be that off-base. I do agree that Connecticut’s cut off would not be as low as Florida’s given the historical trends.
Also, looking back at his newsletter, the Florida 10th grade PSAT mean was 1030 and for 9th grade it was 970. Hard to believe, right?
Each state gets a certain amount of slots for commended and sf and finalist.They take the top scores from your state and go down the list till your allotment of slots is done.that Ty hen is your staye cutoff.They determine how many slots a state has by the amount of kids taking the psat in their junior year.thus more populated states usually have more slots and a higher percentage of available slots.Its anyones guess as to what esch states cutoff will be.you only see comment from childen or psrents of chikdren who have nmsc aspirations and expectation as not from kids who didnt do well.which y there are plenty of Im sure.So we think,my god everyone got a 1450.lol.Im sure not.
Close. They determine how many slots a state has by the number of seniors who graduated in that state the previous year. The number that take the PSAT is not part of the calculation of number of slots per state.
So:
ofstateslots = (#ofHSgraduatesinstate / #ofHSgraduatesin_USA) * 16000
Also, the above is the calculation for number of NMSF slots per state. The commended cutoff is a national cutoff that is set at the SI for the 50,000th score out of eligible scores. There is no state-by-state allocation for commended.
From test masters at 1:21 pm on 2/4
"Tori,
Several Test Masters students have reported scores of 225 and 226, and one student reported a perfect score of 228. Also, we do not require our students to report their scores to us, so we assume that we have many more students with similarly high scores; the students who did report their scores were just calling to say “Thanks!”"
I see this posted today on Test masters:
Sally says:
February 3, 2016 at 6:41 pm
Do you plan to change the estimate for NY – cut off of 217?
Also, can you share any info about your new data? Did you get data from a source that is public or schools you work with or elsewhere — everyone is wondering. Thanks.
Reply
Bill says:
February 4, 2016 at 1:36 pm
Sally,
At this time we have no plans to change the estimate for NY. Actually, our expected update, which should be released in the next couple of days, will be specific to another state. Our data source is confidential, so no comment. But, I can assure you that we have obtained a large new data set that should allow for a more accurate projection for that state. As a reader, you and others could then make determinations about what that state’s cutoff score indicates about the possible cutoff score of your state, based on past rankings and competitiveness. However, without similar data for other states, we are a little leery of generating any more projections than what already exists.
Hope this helps!
So, I think the speculation is specifically that they’ll change their projection for Texas. There are several states with similar cut offs (e.g. NY, Washington, GA), so who knows whether the cur offs are nearly accurate or not - no way to really tell, but if they got a lot of actual data for Texas & it goes up, just wonder if it’s based on state wide info or certain schools.
@livingproof #2537 True, CB doesn’t have to explain anything but I still think they have a PR problem. About 50k kids make commended and/or SF. (By definition all SF’s are “commended” too.) This is basically a fixed pool and represents almost 3% of a test population of 1.7 mill In other words, it represents the top 97% and above of testers. But most of us suspect based on concordance and anecdote the commended cutoff will come at the 210 SI or perhaps a little lower or the 99.2% slot of testers. So how is CB going to explain 50k testers are sitting at or above .8 or .9% of the test population?
From testmasters:
Michael says:
February 3, 2016 at 4:04 pm
Hi Sammy, we’re making a new update tonight, and it suggests that the projected cutoff might even be slightly lower than what the actual cutoffs might be– specifically for Texas, we’re predicting a 219 as the cutoff.
@Pickmen, they don’t have to. NMSC does commended and SF strictly based on SI’s. What’s that got to do with percentiles or concordance? They couldn’t care less with CB’s conundrum.
I’ve been keeping my eye on Testmasters hoping their updated predictions will resolve the concordance/2015 guide mystery, but the latest comment exchange on their site pasted below makes me doubt they have anything solid. They say their predictions are based on an “educated guess.” In fact reading through their comments they seem to have less of a grasp of the complexity than many posters on this thread. For example they imply in responses to there is a big difference between user and national percentiles, but at the extreme ranges this really isn’t true. An SI of of 210 plus is going to be mostly national and user 99, or maybe user 99 W/R, 97M that averages to user 99. But maybe they’ll prove me wrong.
You predict the “commended” cutoff to be at 210? According to the College Board, a 210 for the 2015 PSAT is 99% percentile. In fact, a 205 is also a 99% percentile. a 214 is 99+%! So what you are saying is that you expect a hell of a lot more 99% percentiles. The only way your prediction can come true is 1) the College Board is mistaken. Or 2) MANY more Juniors took the PSAT this year, meaning there was a major baby boom in 1998 that produced a lot more 17 year-olds today. People with lower SI Scores, in the 200-213, should not get discouraged because there is no way of knowing for sure. Please read the College Board’s percentile estimates here on page 11: https://collegereadiness.collegeboard.org/pdf/2015-psat-nmsqt-understanding-scores.pdf
Reply
Bill says:
February 4, 2016 at 1:18 pm
Joe,
There are actually two percentile scores generated through your PSAT score report: the National Percentile and the User Percentile. The National Percentile is the percentile ranking included with your physical score report; this percentile ranking actually incorporates estimates of students who would have taken the test but didn’t – in other words, the National Percentile, the ranking most readily available to students as, again, it is included with your physical score report, has been artificially inflated. This is why there are so many 99%s. The User Percentile only includes those students who actually took the test, and is therefore a more accurate reflection of how a student scored compared to his or her peers, or the actual users. This percentile ranking is only accessible through your online score report, and even then it is only available after clicking through several pages. You can read more about this here.
All that said, you’re correct, people should not be discouraged as these projections represent educated guesses on our part, and we just won’t know for sure until the fall announcements.
Hope this helps!
@DoylB, that’s at odd with another comment they made. If their earlier projection for TX was at 217 and now they are predicting a 219, that’s becoming even more conservative.
Michael says:
February 3, 2016 at 4:14 pm
Hi Dave, we’re posting another update tonight, and it seems to suggest that our projections are in the right ballpark, if not a bit too conservative.
@thshadow wrote:
“Applerouth’s data (presumably from Cobb county?) predicts a 214 SI cutoff for Georgia”
I disagree with this. First he says 95 juniors are above 205, or 99th percentile according to the new chart.
Then he says concording causes more than 60% to fall out of the 99th, leaving 37 still at or above the 99th - “our 95 “National Merit hopefuls” fell to 37”
By “National Merit hopefuls”, he means “in the 99th percentile”. He never mentions Georgia’s cutoff, or the number of actual NMSF. He just talks about “hopefuls”. I agree with you that a 214 corresponds to the first 99th percentile. Since Georgia is always 3 or 4 ranks above the bottom of the 99s, then
Applerouth’s data (presumably from Cobb county?) predicts a 218 SI cutoff for Georgia
Which fits in nicely with testmasters - according to their blog post yesterday, they appear to be leaning towards a Texas cutoff of 219, and Texas’ cutoff is always just a bit above Georgia. And last year Georgia’s cutoff was a 218.
Laura Warren says:
January 8, 2016 at 8:23 pm
Do you have any estimate on the National Commendation number – last year it was 202 (I think)? Do you think it will be higher or lower based on the new test.
Thank you
Just trying to understand
Reply
Michael says:
February 4, 2016 at 2:04 pm
Hi Laura, we’re not as confident about the Commendation number, but based on College Board’s publications, we expect it to still be around a 202, due to the percentile ranks.
@OHToCollege 2549 are you saying there are different percentiles being used? If so, then CB is being misleading. If you get a score say of SI 210, TS 1400 sub score 35W 35R, 35M and on your report it says your user % is 99 and the CB publishes tables that says a 210 is 99%, what do you conclude if you are part of a test population of 1.7 mill. It’s not unreasonable to conclude that you are within the group of the top 17k testers. But now we suspect you are in fact not within this group at all. In fact in front of you are about perhaps 50k testers. That you really at or about the top 97% not 99%. I think this is a problem.
From testmasters website, their feedback is strange, does not confirm new texas cutoff 219:
Now for CA parents, in 2016, CA cutoff was 3 score higher than Texas…though testmaster said to someone that CA 221 has excellent shot and 219 is bubble, So we can assume the new testmaster update for CA will be 220?
Hunter Stallard says:
January 9, 2016 at 12:49 am
How likely do you think these are? I scored a 215 in Texas, and assumed that I would make the cutoffs on your earlier estimates. : /
Reply
Michael says:
February 4, 2016 at 2:02 pm
Hi Hunter, we’re planning another update tonight, and based on that data, we’re expecting our projections to be in the right ballpark for national merit.
okay - this Testmasters stuff is getting a little crazy. @mom3eps - Michael says commended is more like 202. Yet Bill this afternoon commented a 210 for commended.
Truly this search for answers is more than I bargained for back on Jan. 7. It’s a never ending circle of speculations #-o
@mom3eps 2553 great catch!!! Their comments seem to be quite inconsistent and I am really doubting how seriously to take them. They seem very torn, like all of us, between percentile table, concordance, and anecdote. Nothing new…move along folks…
Their responses are all over the place. 219 for Texas but lower for CA and a commended score of 202. I do not think Texas has that many high scores. Crazy
Pickmen , I think 202 for commnded is Typo. Here is reconfirmation of 210 for commended…
Bill says:
February 4, 2016 at 1:07 pm
SM,
A 208 is just under what we expect the cutoff score for Iowa to be. We actually expect the commended student cutoff score to be around a 210, so a 208 would unfortunately put you just on the outside looking in, so to speak.
Reply