@SLparent 2517, yes I am CURIOUS about Testmaster’s new “data” set. Perhaps it will be the great “reveal” twe’ve all been waiting for. But I am skeptical. Most probably, as you suggest, it will be derived from their own student’s reports and will follow more or less their earlier concordance projections. They are stating over and over the commended cutoff will be 210 but I found one comment (posted Feb 3) where they say an SI 206 should make commended. Another comment says “percentiles are just a rough rule of thumb” but “in their experience are fairly accurate in determining NMSF positioning.” Hmmm…Really? Then how do you get 210 (an SI deep in the 99% range) as the national cutoff? These types of inconsistencies give me pause about how seriously we can Testmaster’s predictions. Still, it will be interesting to see HOW they justify their “new” predictions.
They have already been accused of inflated percentiles on the paper reports and it hardly was noticed by the press. Honestly, no one but us, GCs, and tutors care about the SI %. All eyes are on the March SAT which will get huge press. The ship has sailed on the PSAT, I predict they will revise the concordance tables which are clearly contradictory and are something GCs will need for next year, but thats it.
NMS has SI scores for juniors. That’s the only thing they need from CB to determine SF. Percentiles and concordance tables don’t matter for NMS, only for us parents!
Nothing new here, but a decent summary of issues confronting the new PSAT. Good read for those who have recently started monitoring this thread.
so frustrated. I emailed our GC yesterday for information on just how many got my son’s score and up for his hs. They usually have between 39-45. That would be a big indicator for us…whether to even look at schools that might offer something, or stick with a school that doesn’t offer much in merit aid. I just got an email that said that the head of the dept wanted to know who said I could ask for that information (when we went in person, the person there just said to email our question and it would be a quicker answer), and that they couldn’t give personal information of students. Oh my goodness…we have a brand new GC. There are over 10 on staff. Seriously? I would almost like the ones I read on here that are small schools that don’t know what is going on but are helpful and know us. She then went on in the email to tell us that “the psat is new…” blah blah blah…and “I need to wait until September…” blah blah blah. Oh my, I really am worried that my son will fall through the cracks. (ok, rant is over). I am moving to Iceland. 
Yeah @kikidee9, be careful because then they will conveniently label you a “helicopter mom” because you have SOO much confidence that they have everything under control with the kabillion students at the school that they have to take care of.
@CA1543
“@SLparent – agree with your points! – but we are hearing (@Speedy2019 - post 2508 – no state reports will come out till later in the year” .
Yes, saw that, thanks! One more reason to make me things they are trying to figure things out…They have the cutoffs! They’re probably working behind the scene with NMSC…just trying to figure out how to go about explaining their contradicting tables (concordance vs. si).
Do you know if Testmasters’ predictions are reliable? Have they been pretty accurate?
@SLparent…great question about testmasters and their predictions. Are they accurate or have they been accurate in the past years? Can anyone help us answer this question?
I do not think Testmasters is reliable because they predict FL will rise to an all time high of 215 while CT will drop from a 220 to 215. FL has been struggling with increasing math and english scores on standardized test for years, I don’t think fixed it for class of 2017.
This year isn’t like any other (at least not for many years). Other years, you were just trying to predict if it would go up or down by a couple of points - maybe with a per-state focus.
This year, we’re trying to figure out what the units are!!! 
@kikidee9 I would just send her the link to the Cobb County press release and direct her to the last page. Tell her you are just looking for the same type of information that other public schools are releasing. http://www.cobbk12.org/news/2016/PSAT2015.pdf
i emailed the writer of http://www.ajc.com/news/news/local-education/cobb-students-outperform-state-national-scores-on-/np8K5/ but didn’t get an answer. The statistics in the news article are different from those in the press release http://www.cobbk12.org/news/2016/PSAT2015.pdf you mention in post #2529
Another comment on that email from CB yesterday. The reference to the “second percentile question” is a second email I sent to the same CB person. Here is the relevant part of that second email:
"For the 2015 PSAT, the Understanding Your Score User Guide, page 11 gives the Selection Index Percentiles in a table. My understanding is that the table was put together based on a research study sample.
May I ask why that approach was taken instead of just using the actual data from 2015 test takers to determine that table?
Will the table from the User Guide be updated at some point using actual data from the 2015 test takers?"
I was expecting a simple, “that table is final, no changes are planned”. Instead I’ve gotten the “still checking on the second question”. I sort of feel, CB isn’t sure what they are going to do.
@speedy2019…really. " I sort of feel, CB isn’t sure what they are going to do" Sounds like the GC’s don’t know any more than what we do…the general public.
What a great way to run a business. Wish I could be that way in the business world.
@speedy2019, or the person doesn’t have the exact timeline of updates for that table.
In reality that table WON’T be updated till another administration of the 11th grade PSAT. It was never based on current-year actual data anyway - not now and not in prior years. Look for this year’s actual data in NEXT year’s table, is my conclusion. Either that, or next year’s table will be based on the research study and the two spring SAT’s with a little bit of actual thrown in. Over time, actual will more and more start to replace the “baseline” research study-derived curve. Because over time they will have the opportunity to tweak the test so that it gives the distribution they are looking for.
I’m still wondering how or why the SAT data is going to affect the PSAT data. It is a different test and the students taking it are older. Why would they fiddle with any PSAT tables after this spring’s SAT?
My guess is when they release the state data it will be compared to real vs. research percentiles.
@mathyone The answer is - they won’t fiddle with it. PSAT is done for CB perspective - why do they care? NMS has to do their work now, and they have what they need. SI scores for 1.7 million Juniors. They can sort their number and pick winners. CB has to focus on a smooth SAT.
@suzyQ7 This is exactly right and they don’t have to update or explain their table…it was an accurate representation of their research study…it still is…it always will be…it can’t be “wrong”. The emperor has no clothes.
@candjsdad thanks for the tip. I sent her the link and she responded quickly with a “I don’t think our county has ever done that like the link. I will check with dept. head.” So, at least I sound like I am (kind of) normal.
I don’t understand why schools, especially high performing schools and districts, would have such a protectionistic view of this data. I think Cobb County did the right and transparent thing by releasing that data. I would think that schools that are exposed to competition, like private schools and charters, would also be interested in advertising their high performers and high averages. Even in schools that aren’t unusually good, I would think that it would help develop a healthy culture of academic competition.