@replyback No worries- honest mistake!
@CA1543 post 2485 is the old original testmaster prediction
PAMom21 Marshall could be listed under McLean, VA. And you may be right that there were no NMSF in class of 2015, I only checked this past year.
Yeah, none for 2015. I have the book for all of 2015, if anyone is curious about a specific school that year (2013 test year).
My primary problem with the new PSAT scores is the higher compression of scores at the top. Seems that a large number of students could miss NMSF status by just one incorrect answer. That would be disappointing, but thatâs life.
ALL, The Testmaster cutoff update probably will not come tonightâŠmay be tomorrow! Here is the latest from the website.
Any update on CA cutoff?
Reply
Michael says:
February 3, 2016 at 6:11 pm
Hi, weâre planning on releasing an update in the next day or so, but the gist of that is our projected cutoffs seem to be in the ballpark
That possibility of missing NMSF by just one incorrect answer has always been there. In the past, that just might have come with more missed SI points, due to the higher spread of those last few questions (as much as 6 SI points for just one question!!!)
Or it will still get updated tonight, after midnight! HA! I am back in spirit again!
Wow. This thread goes on and on about predictions. On and on. Not sure if matter to us anymore. My D gets a 223 in Ohio and she is now looking at two schools that donât really recognize or award scholarship dollars specifically for NMSF. If only there were a highly ranked Speech Pathology and Audiology Program at a school that gave full rides or full tuition to NMSFs. Pitt is #8, Ohio State is #11 and neither give large $ based on the PSAT score. She wonât go to Idaho or Oklahoma for some reason. 
I would like her to stay on the east side of the country at least, so itâs not like I was pushing her in that direction. I almost wish she had another major in mindâŠ
More potential bad news.
Received this email from CB today: "I am still checking on the second percentile question you have, but I did get some new information so wanted to update my initial response. We are not planning on posting State and National reports on our website at this time. The aggregate information will be made available in the early part of the following school year. We are shifting the reporting due to the introduction of spring testing for the PSAT and will wait to incorporate the later test data. "
When CB says, âearly part of the following school yearâ, I think they are saying State Summary Reports wonât be released until the 2016-2017 school year in the Fall and not this February.
I think the "spring testing for the PSATâ is referring to PSAT 10.
Is everybody ready to throw up their hands?
Arghhhh!!! @Speedy2019 â That seems to refer to no release till August or September of State reports. The next school year would technically start in more places in August/Sept. Really frustrating that the info that Guidance Counselors can get is not available to the public and the CB is just not publishing the info they have. Theyâll update the concordance tables in May apparently so maybe weâll learn more then. Thanks for sharing this sobering news.
May not get any real hard data until commended cutoff is deduced in April.
Wondering if part of the motivation for delaying the state reports till NMSFâs are announced is that they reveal national merit cut-offs.
@Mamelot, it is all pretty ridiculous and getting more so at each turn.
If the commended cutoff in April is around 210, then testmasters predictions are in the ballpark for the states. If much lower, then the SI % table could be correct. Will be a long 2-3 months until then.
That would be nothing new, though. I suspect they are waiting for the March and possibly the May test results in order to compile more data. I wonder if the 2018 students will not be able to look at this yr to have a clue about next yrâs test. (
How can compiled data change anything for NMS? Remember, itâs just taking the proptionally allocated highest scores by state. They canât change the SI index they have given us, right?
They need to focus on a smooth new SAT. All hands on deck for that Iâm guessing.
There is definitely a connection between the PSAT curve and the SAT curve for the new test because a PSAT score is supposed to be the SAME score the same student would score on the SAT taken on the same day. This means the PSAT-SAT percentiles are supposed to line up (more or less) for the new test.
In addition, in schools participating in SAT/PSAT School Day in the spring, some sophomores will be taking the PSAT:
âAs part of the transition, the PSAT School Day â through which sophomores and juniors take the exam each October â will become part of the new SAT School Day: sophomores will now take the PSAT free of charge on the same day juniors take the SAT in the spring.â
Since the March SAT data will be relevant, it may be helpful to look at recent SAT percentiles (on a 1600 scale) to get a better estimate of cutoffs, although I realize it is the old format and the definition of âpercentileâ isnât the same. I am still trying to get the specific 99th percentile SI Index scores from my guidance counselor, but things have been really busy.
Boy! I was gone for 10 hours & so much happened!
- I was correct when I said I would 't hold my breath for the state reports to be released in early February.
- what is the new data set that testmasters referred to? Their studentsâ SI scores? When I was reading the questions that people sent in to see if their scores would make the cutoffs (for my tables), I noticed testmasters just stopped answering everyone for the last 2 weeks . Then all of a sudden, âwe are going to revise projectionâ. Maybe they have been doing what we have been doing⊠Collecting results from students & formulating projections.
- How is CB going to explain for the incorrect SI percentiles? They should have marked âPRELIMINARYâ all over that thing!
@VABogart - thanks for your responseâŠwe are in a neighboring county! Our schoolâs NMSF number fluctuates a bit from year to year. As you pointed out, TJ accounts for so much of the total for VA that it seems a lot of kids around here end up as commended. My son was commended two years ago and the school never even notified us. I had to call college board to find out (tracing back from this siteâs information).
@SLparent â agree with your points! â but we are hearing (@Speedy2019 - post 2508 â no state reports will come out till later in the year 8-|
Hopefully Test Masters will explain their new data and explain whatever adjustments they make to their projected cut offs. If CB updates the SI percentiles in Understanding Your Scores and 99-99+%iles move up the scale, it will lead to accusations of inflationary reporting for economic gain - to encourage more students to take the SAT. Of course they can try to explain it but their credibility and the publicâs confidence in CB is already under severe pressure.