@NathanBN, thanks for the post. a 205 being consistent with 99th percentile would mean SI % table being correct! Sounds like testmasters is wavering… but doesn’t want to revised their predictions and commended score back down to the 200-202 range.
They know we will laugh at them if they started at 200, went to 210 and have to come back down to 200.
Maybe the new state prediction for Texas will go down from 217 instead of up to 219 ???
Gut feeling says testmasters doesn’t want to believe the “huge data set” given to them.
if this statement is true, “We recently obtained a very large pool of data, and we expect to actually release an updated projection for a specific state in the next couple of days. Although we were initially skeptical, extrapolation using our new data set does seem to confirm that a 205 would be consistent with scoring in the 99th percentile” this sounds like the first piece of good news I’ve heard in a while…
@Speedy2019 I wish you were right, but don’t think so. They were so confident yesterday, when they had already analyzed all the data. They just changed the tone today, for other reasons, I am afraid. It’s not like they got a ton of new data and analyzed it this morning. I really want to see what they planned to release last night. It would be very valuable.
@NathanBN, I’d rather see what they want to release today instead of last night. Feeling good right now…
Perhaps Bill don’t talk to Michael no more!
Many inconsistent comment replies on test masters - this one
Bill says:
February 4, 2016 at 1:07 pm
SM,
A 208 is just under what we expect the cutoff score for Iowa to be. We actually expect the commended student cutoff score to be around a 210, so a 208 would unfortunately put you just on the outside looking in, so to speak.
and then an hour later
Michael says:
February 4, 2016 at 2:04 pm
Hi Laura, we’re not as confident about the Commendation number, but based on College Board’s publications, we expect it to still be around a 202, due to the percentile ranks.
Reply
@Speedy2019 With all the data they have, they will change only ONE state, you know.
Yep and hoping it is Texas lower. But we can compare the new cutoff for that one state to last years and extrapolate to the other 49 states and commended.
@OHToCollege How about the same person:
Bill says:
February 4, 2016 at 1:07 pm
SM,
A 208 is just under what we expect the cutoff score for Iowa to be. We actually expect the commended student cutoff score to be around a 210, so a 208 would unfortunately put you just on the outside looking in, so to speak.
February 4, 2016 at 2:06 pm, Bill wrote, “We recently obtained a very large pool of data, and we expect to actually release an updated projection for a specific state in the next couple of days. Although we were initially skeptical, extrapolation using our new data set does seem to confirm that a 205 would be consistent with scoring in the 99th percentile. That said, we will not be updating this table again, only providing a specific estimate for a specific state.”
@DoyleB - I think we both agree that he’s saying that in his data set, he has 37 kids whose concorded score would be in the 99th percentile from last year, about 214.
The second point is that he says that 37 is more inline with what he would expect from this subset of schools. This could be interpreted as either (A) there are typically 37 NMSF from these schools, or (B) there are typically 37 kids with 99th percentile.
You might think he means (B), but I think he means (A). I’m arguing that he’s being sloppy / confused, and calling “99th percentile” the NMSF “hopeful” line on the one hand, and then using 37 as the “typical” number based on # of NMSF. The reason I think that is that I suspect it’s easy for him to look up the # of NMSF the schools typically have, while he might not bother / have easy access to “# of kids in the 99th percentile”.
I do agree that (B) implies the higher cutoff you mentioned.
If you think (A), but think it implies a higher cutoff, we can discuss further.
If that one state goes UP, then won’t be feeling as “good right now”.
You know, whether one state goes up or down may depend on who posts the update, “Bill” or “Michael”.
@NathanBN Yeah it sounds like between 1:07 and 2:06, Bill got hit over the head. In the meantime, Michael’s flailing around in the dark, changing his story like a sorry witness up on the stand. SMH
Michael is da bomb, Bill tortures baby rabbits…just what I’ve heard.
You guys are making me laugh. Time to go start dinner though. I’ll chuckle while I do that.
Bill & Michael are playing see-saw! Haha!
Maybe if Donald Trump starts complaining about these Test Masters guys they’ll get their act together – or not - no effect on Ted Cruz. But the lack of consistency even as to the scope of what’ll they update (guess consensus is only Texas and not even the commended cut off) or when they’ll do it (tonight? tomorrow? Saturday?) is pretty shabby.
@DoyleB They are not dumb (at least not this dumb). They were confident. They gave out (at least hints) of several states. Then this…
I wouldn’t have guessed I would be reading this for comic value 
Michael: “Hey Bill, have you seen this CC thread that’s making NMS predictions?”
Bill: “Yeah, what a bummer.”
Michael: “Wanna have some fun?”
Bill: “Sure, what do you have in mind?”
Michael: “I need you to negate what I have said. Then I will go ahead and negate what I have said.”
Bill: “Hum, what’s your point here?”
Michael: “Watch how their page count jumps from 168 to 174!”
Bill: “Game on! Dude!”