@OHToCollege Ha ha — yeah - they are just messing with us bc we are so obsessed!
For CA parents, here is the latest from Testmasters:
So my son is a 216 in California. Is the more likely table the one above? That meaning he does not qualify?
Reply
Michael says:
February 4, 2016 at 2:28 pm
Hi Susan! We’re projecting a 219 for California, so a 216 may or may not qualify, depending on how the NMSC decides to go.
Meanwhile…
CB: Hey there NMSC.
NMSC: What’s up?
CB: Percentiles!
NMSC: Percentiles, who?
CB: PSAT/NMSQT User National.
NMSC: Piss off CB, I got work to do.
CB: Hang on, you know how we told you take our very best? We love’em all, but take our best?
NMSC: You can’t tell me how to do my job. I know how to sort. I got me Excel 2013.
CB: Yeah, but all those PSAT/NMSQT User National’s were Kindergartners. They got the tests mixed up. We sent in our tests, but those damn teachers mixed up Dr. Seuss with our Frederick Douglas.
NMSC: Piss off CB, I still know how to sort!
What is “depending on how the NMSC decides to go.”
So my son is a 216 in California. Is the more likely table the one above? That meaning he does not qualify?
Reply
Michael says:
February 4, 2016 at 2:28 pm
Hi Susan! We’re projecting a 219 for California, so a 216 may or may not qualify, depending on how the NMSC decides to go.
Now this thread is becoming hilarious 
This is becoming more like Al Gore Vs George Bush election!
What a nice day to hear from @NathanBN
@NathanBN, I just verify your post #2566. It is what it is. Thank You. You’re the Man
http://collegeadmissions.testmasters.com/update-psat-scores-cut-national-merit-2016/#comment-126117
"Patrick says:
January 13, 2016 at 11:24 am
Do either of your estimate scales change, now that the College Board has released the SI percentiles and 205 is the lowest SI score in th 99th percentile?
Reply
Bill says:
February 4, 2016 at 2:06 pm
Patrick,
That’s a great question. We recently obtained a very large pool of data, and we expect to actually release an updated projection for a specific state in the next couple of days. Although we were initially skeptical, extrapolation using our new data set does seem to confirm that a 205 would be consistent with scoring in the 99th percentile. That said, we will not be updating this table again, only providing a specific estimate for a specific state.
Hope this helps!"
More from Test Masters:
teresa says:
February 4, 2016 at 3:56 pm Is the Texas cutoff going to change any with the update?
Reply
Bill says:
February 4, 2016 at 5:01 pm
Teresa,
… Maybe. You’ll have to just wait and see!
Really Bill – you are too much!!! Just please do it or stop putting us through all this drama.
Reply
Renky says:
February 4, 2016 at 4:00 pm
Hello,
If you are saying that the user percentile is a more representative percentile of how a student did compared to his peers, it doesn’t make sense that you are anticipating that the cutoff for commended will be 210. In another post it says that 99th percentile is 205. So are you saying that this year commended will be in the upper 99th percentile, which is unlike any prior year?? The user percentile for an SI of 207 states 99th percentile.
Reply
Bill says:
February 4, 2016 at 5:28 pm
Renky,
Good point! Michael and I discussed this exact point earlier today. A score of 210 may in fact be too conservative an estimate for commended student; however, we came to the decision that we will not be updating this comprehensive list again. We will be posting another update specific to a specific state in the next day or two, but we won’t really be touching on commended student status. That said, in past years commended student status has been equal to the lowest state cutoff score, which is what effectively makes the commended student score the national cutoff score. A score of 210 for commended student would be consistent with that trend if our other estimates are accurate.
Hope this helps!
Well - no not really.You are sitting on a lot of information apparently and choosing not to share it or your analysis of it ~X(
So according to testmasters, the lowest state cutoff will be a 210, but a 205 is at 99%. Huh? Is weed legal where old Bill is living?
I think it’s time we came clean. I’m “Michael”, and @DoyleB is “Bill”…
Michael, don’t spill the beans! We’re having too much fun here :))
My Ds HS (Austin area) averages 4-5 NMF. She got a SI 221. Emailed her GC to see how that compared to the rest of her class & her GC replied (unfortunately not with specific #s):
“I can’t say anything as a definite, but compared to her class and the PSAT Team she did exceptionally well. She has a good chance for National Merit”
Last years TX cutoff was 220, hoping it doesn’t go up. D took the semester long PSAT/SAT prep class period her HS offered. Invites to join the class were based on their Sophomore PSAT scores.
"Bill says:
A score of 210 for commended student would be consistent with that trend if our other estimates are accurate.
Hope this helps!
Reply
Jim says:
February 4, 2016 at 5:35 pm
Commended in the past was defined as top 50,000 scorers. Based on the number of test takers this is around top 3%. It has nothing to do with the lowest cut off score just a coincidence.
Reply
Bill says:
February 4, 2016 at 5:44 pm
Jim,
I understand. I was simply pointing out a trend. (Effectively, in this case being defined as “actually, but not officially or explicitly.”)
Thanks for reading!"
Ok, so a 210 is at 97%, and a 205 is at 99%.
I know things are different down in Texas, but that I find that math – puzzling. :-S
Last night it looked like Texas was going from 217 to 219. 24 hours later, I’m guessing Texas goes from 217 to 214 - and testmasters doesn’t change any other state or commended.
@dallaspiano, good to hear from you again. Keep your predictions handy. Testmasters may want to borrow them down the road.
It is very handy from the other world
Just a thought. Can we take the SI and Total score of te Oct 2015 PSAT (of 1520) and try to make predictions of the presidential candidates winning chances. I mean which candidate will get how many votes (again electoral vs Actual!! is a problem) in each of the states. Both these (PSAT and election) have the states in common. We anyway have the 2012 (last election) data for both statewise PSAT cut offs and the votes secured!!. I am a parent of a kid who got SI-209 and 1420 in OH and have been following this forum last 3 weeks. Have asked the school for info but had no luck so far.
Ok. So this is why testmasters will only update 1 state, presumable Texas and no other states: “However, without similar data for other states, we are a little leery of generating any more projections than what already exists.”
However, once Texas is updated, we can predict the other 49 states and commended.
If testmasters data set is indeed “very large”, this will be the best set of hard data we have for predictions. Better than Cobb county and other anecdotes from selective schools.