Testmasters is based in Houston. Does work with Houston ISD (HISD). HISD is the largest school system in Texas and 7th largest in the US. Guessing testmasters got access to HISD psat scores - maybe private schools in the area also.
Houston had a couple of schools with 25% of class getting SF: St. Johns and TAMS (http://www.houstonschoolsurvey.com/national-merit-scholars.html#.VrP7N4-cGcw).
Just guessing on their source of data.
@Speedy - is this post 2614 ā http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/discussion/comment/19254836/#Comment_19254836
why are you thinking the Texas predicted cut off will go down rather than up?
to all ā
Did Test Masters say or imply the SI percentiles that CB published were rather inflated - based upon National Percentiles - not even User Percentiles? Even if from a Research Study - CB is not saying they are based on actual test takers from October 2015 so even though they are not marked preliminary, they certainly do not seem at all definitive. As weāve noted before the percentiles in the Understanding Your Scores Report are VERY LIKELY not accurate. So what is 99%ile or 99+%ile - very hard to say really.
Some poor kid getting test prep at Testmasters:
Kid: The answer is B.
Tutor: Correct, the answer is A.
Kid: Wait, is it A or B?
Tutor: Yes. But it might be C.
Kid: Iām confused. Which one is right?
Tutor: Patience. Later on Iāll tell you the answer to a different question.
@Pannaga Maybe we can get Nate Silver to work on the electoral/SI cutoff correlation tables by running a zillion simulations.
@mathyone: Iām still wondering how or why the SAT data is going to affect the PSAT data. It is a different test and the students taking it are older. Why would they fiddle with any PSAT tables after this springās SAT?
I spoke to the college counselor at my sonās school and we were discussing whether or not my son should re-take the ACT and when. She said that we had to wait until sept to final out about NMSF and then could decide because he will have to take the new-SAT to confirm his score. I thought heād be able to use his score from the āOLDā SAT to confirm given that they have traditionally allowed SAT scores taken junior year to confirm. She said thatās not the direction they are moving in for the new PSAT and they would require him to take the new SAT to confirm the score. I have read other posts where the CB said this is not going to be the case but until we see the new requirements I guess it can go either way. This may be part of the reason they are waiting until after the spring SATs to fiddle with the tables?
I meant the concordance tables which are marked preliminary but sonehow after the SAT is given they will know for sure.
Not sure about confirming scores, my kid is a sophomore so I didnāt pay attention to that, but I would make sure to read carefully what NM says. Counselors have been known to be wrong about things and with all the changes this year you should definitely verify.
@CA1543, āAs weāve noted before the percentiles in the Understanding Your Scores Report are VERY LIKELY not accurateā
If youāve read my post, I am a True Believer in the SI% tables. I may be in the minority on this site. But Iāve never given up on them.
Testmasters hinted that their data is showing 205 SI as 99th percentile. That matches the SI% table. If so, then their prediction SHOULD come down. My prediction for the 50 states actually has Texas at 212 (as previously posted). Guessing testmasters comes down to 215 max with 212-214 possible.
@Speedy2019 ā I hope you are right as a True Believer ā - I am unfortunately not able to feel confident about either. But letās see what Test Masters comes out with ā if anything - not sure why it is taking so long to update prediction for Texas.
Really, I think testmasters is kind of caught in a tug-of-war. They changed all their predictions based on concordance tables. Then they received a large data set that MAY show the SI% table is correct instead of concordance. So what do they do? Revise all state predictions again? Revise only Texas?
Seems easiest for them to take the course they appear to be taking. Revise only Texas and punt on the others by saying they have no data for the other states. In a sense, by taking the lead in making cutoff predictions, they look like they are flapping in the wind right now and a gust just came up behind them.
A lot of speculation on my part though.
@thinmints ā sorry to hear that the school never notified you about your son making Commended. Iād think a school would be very interested (and honored) to know which and how many students from their school receive Letters of Commendation as well as NMSF status. Do you have a son or daughter who took the new PSAT?
Question for the group ā once Testmasters posts the update for Texas, is someone going to be brave and offer their projected cutoffs for the other states, given that Testmasters has now demurred? Looks like those on this thread have vetted this issue in more depth and with more thoughtful analysis than anyone else, including Testmasters, Applerouth, Compass, and others.
@Speedy2019 If what you said is true, how do you explain the fact that last night, they said they changed TX from 217 to 219?
@NathanBN - I think itās clear that at Testmasters, the left hand doesnāt know what the right hand is doing. In particular, I think the left hand is giving us the thumbs up, while the right hand is giving us the finger.
@NathanBN ā And today, they affirmed their prediction that VA would be 218. Well, that was Michael, anyway. Not sure where Bill comes out.
Could someone please post links to the 3rd party cutoff predictions by state so we donāt need to scroll through 176 pages? Looking for Oregon predictions, not Texas or Georgia, which seem highly represented here! 
Thank you!
@VABogart Starting today, they basically "affirmļ¼anything in their first updated table. I firmly believe what they meant to release last night is valuable. Donāt forget they advised many people to check back later. If all states except one remain the same, whatās there to check back?
Oregon is a little lower than Texas. So todayās value is somewhere between 210 and 218, depending on whether Bill or Michael currently has the bong. Yesterday it was 215.
Thank you @LivinProof and @DoyleB. Have to laugh @DoyleB, I donāt know who Bill and Michael are, but they sound like Oregonians! (The green state!)
@pnwfam If you scroll down to the comments section in the link and see responses from the testmasters site dated yesterday and today, there were lots of comments from the testmasters admins āBillā and āMichaelā - many contradictory.
Wow. PSAT 2015 broke the Test Masters people.
Prediction aināt beanbag. Thumbs up for the rest of you guys! :-bd