@suzyQ7 I just took a look at that link and don’t get the middle column with the sliding scale range at all (must be commended range?). I read through some comments and it all seems to comes down to this junior class is getting a raw deal- Guinea pigs for the new PSAT/SAT…
@pnwfam If you read the first paragraph of the article it stated how the sliding scale (an inaccurate prediction) is just the old cutoff -12 since the test is out of 228 this year instead of 240.
@paveyourpath #2624. I posted some info. regarding qualifying score #2247. You might find it helpful.
Each day goes by, I realize that these CC posters (especially this thread) are much more knowledgeable than many GC’s & test prep companies out there…Also, we care more about our children so we dig deeper to understand issues, changes, etc…etc…
I had to explain to a test prep personnel last night about the change in the scorings, TS vs. SI’s, etc…etc… (Really?) She must have thought I didn’t know what was going on. This morning, her tone changed :). I’m thinking sending her the link “how to understand your 2015 PSAT” from CB" and the link about the inflated percentiles.
One another note: I don’t think CB will dictate the qualifying score…it’s NMSC’s scholarships, their money so it’s NMSC’s policy.
@SLparent…good point about the NMSC and CB. So I wonder why they are waiting for the new SAT stuff to come out. That would have to do with CB only correct? I think MNSC knows what the cutoff numbers are by now. As has been stated before by several very knowledgeable people on this thread. Take the total scores from each state get your percentage allotment for each state and go down the line 228…227…226…225…224…223…222…221…220 until you get the percentage for each state…simple and that is the cuttoff for that state. Not rocket science. We just don’t have the complete numbers to make that happen on this thread.
@NathanBN, good morning. Your question, “@Speedy2019 If what you said is true, how do you explain the fact that last night, they said they changed TX from 217 to 219?”
They are giving out contradictory information. The “latest” from them seems to be a change of heart. Take this answer from “Bill”:
“That’s a great question. We recently obtained a very large pool of data, and we expect to actually release an updated projection for a specific state in the next couple of days. Although we were initially skeptical, extrapolation using our new data set does seem to confirm that a 205 would be consistent with scoring in the 99th percentile. That said, we will not be updating this table again, only providing a specific estimate for a specific state.”
If 205 is really 99th percentile based on “very large pool of data”, that indicates the SI % table is correct. SI table shows 205 at 99th and 215 at 99+. You can’t have Texas with a 217 cutoff if 205 is 99%.
My take on the SI% table would indicate a 212 for Texas. Can’t wait to see testmasters updated prediction for Texas.
Does any one see a “downside” to the Testmaster’s statement that a 205 SI is within the 99%. My interpretation of this statement is that it’s crediting or validating the CG guide published 2015 percentiles, which would be good news for presumably lower cutoffs than those derived through concordance. Anyone see it differently?
I posted data in the past showing a “liberal” and “conservative” cutoff using the concordance tables for each state.
For Texas:
2014 Cutoff Concorded Range Testmasters Liberal Cutoff Conservative Cutoff
220…212-221…217…212…221…
The SI% table indicates to me a 212 for Texas cutoff. That matches the low end of the concorded range, my so called “liberal” cutoff. So you can get the SI % table and the Concordance Tables to match and be in sync (at least for Texas) if you use the lowest number in the concorded range.
Jumping the gun a bit, but here are the cutoffs for the states using the low end of the concorded ranges (liberal cutoff) and my prediction based on SI % table. Notice how the numbers match very closely. Highest state cutoff is 216. Commended is 201 by my estimation, but could be as low as 198 from the liberal cutoff.
To my knowledge, this is the first possible explanation to make the concordance tables and the SI % table match up. Use the low end of the concorded range.
Testmasters, I give you copyright permission to use the last column below and insert into your web site.
State.......................Liberal Cutoff.........My Prediction based on SI % Table
Alabama…204…204
Alaska…201…203
Arizona…208…208
Arkansas…199…202
California…214…214
Colorado…208…208
Connecticut…212…212
Delaware…209…209
District of Columbia…216…216
Florida…208…207
Georgia…210…210
Hawaii…208…207
Idaho…202…204
Illinois…208…208
Indiana…206…206
Iowa …202…204
Kansas…206…206
Kentucky…204…205
Louisiana…205…205
Maine… 205…205
Maryland…213…214
Massachusetts…214…214
Michigan…204…205
Minnesota… 208…207
Mississippi…204…204
Missouri…204…204
Montana…199…202
Nebraska…204…204
Nevada…205…205
New Hampshire…206…206
New Jersey…216…216
New Mexico…202…204
New York …211…211
North Carolina…208…208
North Dakota…198…201
Ohio …208…208
Oklahoma…202…204
Oregon…208…208
Pennsylvania…210…210
Rhode Island…206…206
South Carolina …205…205
South Dakota…198…201
Tennessee…206…206
Texas…212…212
Utah …201…203
Vermont…208…207
Virginia…213…214
Washington…211…211
West Virginia…198…201
Wisconsin…202…204
Wyoming…198…201
I doubt CA cutoff will be 214. I will go with Testmasters prediction of 219.
@speedy2019…you crack me up. I bet testmasters appreciates all the people on this threads hard work. We have done the work for them all they have to do is run with it. Still waiting for that NEW update from testmasters…waiting…waiting. I know if has been a few days now.
@srk2017, disclaimer: I’m a card carrying member of the True Believers.
@Speedy2019 - Sorry I missed that 
@Tgirlfriend, @thshadow posted a link to the 2014 PSAT score thread. If you read those posts you’d think a 230+ was necessary for SF last year!! People seem to instinctively want to be pessimistic about scores. Not sure why that is.
Here in Central Texas its a nice sunny day.
@Speedy2019 Nice to see some sunny optimism coming from you in TX. Here’s a news release from a TX school:
Glen Rose High School 10th and 11th graders exceeded the state and national average on PSAT scores. According to the College Board reports, Glen Rose High School 10th graders had a mean PSAT score of 957 compared to 931 for the nation and 893 for the state. Glen Rose High School 11th graders had a mean PST score of 1,016 compared to 1,008 for the nation and 951 for the state.
Where are those state numbers for Texas coming from? That is encouraging.
http://images.pcmac.org/Uploads/GlenRoseISD/GlenRoseISD/Departments/DocumentsCategories/Documents/TAPR%2014-15%20GRHS.pdf
Re Glen Rose – here is some info about the district including past ACT/SAT performance - I think average ACT is 20 or 21 & SAT 1415-1453 or around there. see pgs9-10. This info is on the District website.
@Speedy2019 - it seems like you’re trying to generate a table similar to what I did in:
http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/sat-act-tests-test-preparation/1855868-reconciling-2015-psat-concordance-tables-with-percentile-tables.html#latest
But apparently we have different ideas of what the concorded range is…? Because I got higher cutoffs than you did. How did you get your concorded range?
With the caveat that I’m a True Believer, so I’m essentially arguing a point of view, I will point out the following. Notice that all of the press releases from schools report that their PSAT scores are above (this year’s) average. And it’s not because every school is above average… 
It’s because schools would only announce something if they’ve done well.
So anecdotes in general should be distrusted. Though many of the anecdotes in this thread are actually from us asking our schools “how many kids scored above my kid”, which I suspect is equally likely to get answered whether the number is big or small. Which likely makes them more representative than “press release” anecdotes.
@thshadow I completely agree.
I was struck at first by the low mean score for TX (951) but then I thought that in states where the disparities in educational settings & test-taking populations are especially high, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a low mean score & a high NMS cutoff.
Is TX mean on PSAT usually lower than FL? Does anyone know that or know where to look that up easily?