Someone please spin this into supporting a 217 for CA (thanks in advance):
Logos Prep is proud to announce its Class of 2017 PSAT Scores! Over half (55%) of LP juniors scored in the top 10% of the nation. Over 3/4 are in the top 25%, and ALL Logos Juniors are in the top 50% nationally. Way to go juniors!
Michaelā¦ How could you!!! I expected this from Billā¦ But not from youā¦ X_X
My child attends a very small private school in Indiana. Only around 40 students in the junior class. Score of 1390 (730 Reading/660 Math) and a 212 index. Only two junior classmates had a higher index but I donāt know their totals. A few online sources show a 212 making the cut, but the preponderance do not.
Flabbergasted, that testmasters would go to 219 for Texas - and say 205 is 99th percent - and say their models indicate commended is between 200-210.
Have a headache. Need to take a nap.
I am inclined to believe TestMastersā cutoff SI score of 219 for TX because I have consistently believed that CA cutoff would be either 220 or 221, and maybe even 222. This would mean 222 or even 223 for DC and NJ. Right now, I believe for CA, itās a tossup between 221 and 222. No way CA cutoff is going to be below 219 IMO. Only reason CA cutoff might be NOT above 221 is because most of so called magnet schools have students who are stronger in math rather than in Reading and Writing.
My attitude is going to be that I did not make NMSF, and if it turns out I made the cutoff, it will be a positive surprise. No biggie in big scheme of things.
Booo to Test Masters for just lobbing out a 219 for TX in response to someoneās inquiry. I wonder what their big data dump is - hard to believe Texas would only drop 1 point given it has been so high of a cut off anyway and the top score went from 240 to 228. Really wonder why Test Masters are not more comfortable suggesting a range of cut offs rather than many single SI prediction, changing them and then saying they wonāt adjust other states but we are free to guess. And who knows, maybe they are trying to be somewhat conservative so as not to have people disappointed in September and then made at them.
Michael says:
February 5, 2016 at 1:52 pm
Hi Leah, Itās entirely possible that your school will have more than 4 National Merit Semifinalists this year! Historically, Maine has been around the middle of the pack as far as cutoff scores go, so for the new exam, we canāt imagine that a 222 would be Maineās cutoff, which would probably be closer to California or Washington DCās cutoff this year.
@Tgirlfriend Yeap, TestMasters clearly believes the cutoff for CA is going to be either 221 or 222. Hope the dice lands at the 221 corner. Lol
Without more real Data from GC, nothing seems dependable! Time cut expectations low till that happens 
We are @ 220 in CA.
I agree with you, @websensation . . . My sense is also that California is probably between 221 - 222 (my daughter has a 221) . . .
@websensation Testmaster commented CA 221 has excellent shot, now that wiill breaks many heart here
Seems like Test Masters just trying to get web traffic.
Oh well, if CA canāt be 217 then I hope it is 222, that way dd wonāt beat herself up over that one writing question she missed.
I am just making a prediction for Maine. I am basing it off the information the guidance counselor at my school gave me for my son. I looked in the past and Maine for Scarborough High School has never had more than 4 semi finalists. The range is 1-4.Since they told him he was forth place and since one of his other friends scored a 216 I am guessing the cutover for Maine is at least higher than 216 since they have never had 5 semifinalists and they usually only had one finalist when the range was higher in the past. I am aware his class has a lot of smart kids so I am thinking it will be even higher especially if some of his friends who havenāt reported to him scored higher but under 222 So I challenge more people from Maine to post there thoughts. I might have some more evidence from the tutor because he has heard of one other student around his score he is going to ask again. I am predicting the scores will be high this year my son really felt like the test was so much easier than any of the practice PSAT or any of the sat practice tests. I do believe the averages will be higher than last year for all just based on the fact that the test seemed easier for my son and his friends also made that comment when they finished it. At least the very smartest kids said this. One of his friends moved back to Oregon so that helped because he typically always scores higher than him and of course did. I am happy for him though because I believe he probably will need a higher score and he did get it luckily. I do hope I am wrong because I know the one with the 216 would love to make it too they both do AD together. So Iād like to see some more anecdotal evidence swaying one way or another. September is a long way away
Based on reading the commentary at Testmasters, it sounds like they believe the SI percentile table on page 11 of the āunderstanding your scores reportā is based off of the national percentile, or the 3 million juniors throughout the United States, not just the approximate 1.6 million test takers.
Aside from that theory, which we have discussed in this thread, unless they have ACTUAL data, we are back in the same boat that we were in at the beginning of the week.
So admittedly, I havenāt read every post here in detail. Iām mostly skimming for the entertainment value. My personal interest is to make sure no one has a good argument for the top cutoff hitting 224 or higher this year.
One reason it might that I donāt think Iāve heard discussed much in this forum is the new attempt to match vertical scoring with the SAT. The College Board talks about it here: https://collegereadiness.collegeboard.org/about/scores/structure
The assumption seems to be that it is unrealistic to expect any decent sized number of Juniors to score higher than a 1520 on the SAT in the fall of their Junior year. That assumption seems wrong to me. If they really are attempting to do that then I would expect to see a blob of scores at the VERY top of the scale that donāt conform to a normal curve.
The 2014 College-bound Seniors report showed .73% of Seniors scoring a 1530 or above CR+M. I would think that the number of Juniors scoring in that range might not be much lower. So where do all of those students end up if the goal is to match the scores of the PSAT with the scores of the SAT? https://secure-media.collegeboard.org/digitalServices/pdf/sat/sat-percentile-ranks-composite-crit-reading-math-2014.pdf
Of course, because the College Board made this change intentionally, you would think that they would recognize the higher number of top scores that it would create and would be able to produce accurate concordance tables.
Took a couple of advil, ready for another comment.
If testmasters is right that 205 is 99% and Texas is 219, then the SI% table must be right for 99%, but wrong for 99+. Currently CB has 228-214 as 99+. Based on testmasters Texas prediction, the 99+ range should be more like 228-223. Assuming testmasters is correct.
I guess that is possible, but oddly weird to me. The scoring curve wouldnāt be used to distribute the top 1% of students better? 1/2 percent between 228-223 and 1/2 percent between 222-205.
Hope testmasters gives a good description tonight to describe what actual score distribution they see in the top 1%.
@micgeaux ā agreed. Nothing much has changed. I think if you scroll through their comments they themselves do not really know the commended cutoff. They dither between 200-210. I think Bill in one comment said 210 might be too high but thatās the number they have based on concordance and that they are not going to spend more time on it. Even if they are basing a 205 SI (last 99% decile), based on a 3.5 mill test population, this still leaves about 15k testers below a 205 SI or in the high 98% deciles, which presumably means the commended will be below 205. I think they realized this, which is why they gave range as 210-202 for commended. Thatās my theory anyway.
Do they ever post the finalist list. It seems that a few may not make it to finalist status from Maine because they donāt seem to make high honors every quarter. It seems like it would be hard to keep a high GPA is you are getting many Bās. One semi-finalsit didnāt always make honors. My son wants to take a class that seems most kids get Cās or less. I am just wondering If he should take the AP Chemistry and risk his GPA or maybe swap it for another AP class like AP English that he probably could have a better shot at getting a B at least. I have heard stories of people lowering their GPA from challenging himself too much and he probably may not get into the Ivey like school possibly anyways. I am also thinking that grade might pull all his other grades down as well. Plus the Tudors are expensive. I want him to be able to still have his chance getting this if he makes the cut. What are your thoughts? I have seen people not making the cut as semi-finalist because of grades and I wouldnāt want it to be him. I know I am a parent so I know the choice is his, but I wondered what others thought?