I am not so sure the 219 is their final estimate for Texas…
Michael posted a similar comment yesterday:
Michael says:
February 4, 2016 at 2:22 pm
Hi Sara, based on some data that will be published tonight, we’re estimating that a 219 will be the cutoff for Texas.
At 220 for Utah I am cautiously optimistic (maybe just hopeful?) that she will make S.F., and it sounds like the 1000 or so kids they cut between Semi and Finals is due to poor grades or easy schedules or not completing the process. Please correct me if I misunderstood. But can anyone help explain the process from finalist to actual scholarship? New to this…
@candjsdad 224 SI is good everywhere. Besides, any kid who has both a 223+ AND a parent who’s as hawkishly concerned as you?They’re going to do well in life w/without NMSF. (I mean this as a compliment.)
CB has its reasons. The kids who got 320 TS on the PSAT now have a great shot at a 400 SAT.
@slaudsmom A few thousand of the Finalist make it to winner. They chose based on high grades high Sat’s Leadership extracurricular activities volunteering the essay, the hardness of your program compared to the others. Being a finalist you need at least a 3.75 I believe. I believe most make it to finalist unless you are having problems in school or your GPA is lower than 3.75. You can have a c but your GPA can’t go lower than 3.75 or you don’t fill the application out get references etc. Hope this helps. Just by making finalist there are lots of colleges that will give free tuition sometimes free rides
.
Ty @fun1234 ! Guess we wait til Sept.
@slaudsmom I know my son is not worried at all and says the same thing wait until September. I guess it is just hard because we will be visiting a bunch of colleges and it would of been nice to know before hand. I guess it is on to the new SAT in April and see how that turns out. I guess that will be good information too.
@LadyMeowMeow I agree that my NMSF status really won’t do much in terms of my boys’ future. I don’t think that any of the schools they are looking at will care much. I’m a bit obsessed about the National Merit process for two reasons. 1) I’m deeply annoyed with the process on behalf of all of us actual DC residents who aren’t the ones who are driving our score requirement so high. 2) I’d like to have the opportunity to publicly congratulate my kids in a socially acceptable fashion. Kids that excel in sports get acknowledgement in local papers and awards ceremonies and school signing events. Kids that excel academically get . . . This is especially true with my homeschoolers because they don’t get the social feedback that other kids get at school when knowledge of test scores get circulated. So yes, I’d like to be able to share that accomplishment with the world.
On the scoring issue, I think you may be missing my point. @Speedy2019 was just asking why the scoring curve wouldn’t be used “to distribute the top 1% of students better.” I’m suggesting that the change in the vertical scoring might explain part of that. It may be true that the average student score may change 80 points between their junior and senior years, but I’m not sure that would hold at the highest ends of the scale. The artificial compression enforced by the 1520 score cap may explain a much more compact end of the “tail” than would be expected on a normal distribution curve.
@candjsdad, what you are saying is a very real possibility. Could explain 99+ being limited to 228-223.
In fact, when the commended cutoff is figured out in April, that won’t settle the issue of 99+ being 228-223 or 228-214. I’m afraid the issue won’t be settled until September.
Holy cow, I just checked testmasters web site. Wasn’t this the question where testmasters said going to 219 with an update tonight? That “answer” has been removed. Am I missing something? Please confirm.
Texasboy says:
February 4, 2016 at 10:38 pm
Hi
A SI of 220 in Texas. Will that be good?
Reply
Although the commended cutoff will give our number-crunchers a better idea about the accuracy of the concordance tables/SI percentiles. A 202 commended cutoff will be good news for lots of kids, 208 will mean that the percentile tables are totally wrong and the scary concordance numbers might be right. Relieved we’re in a middle-of-the-pack state.
@Speedy2019 – you’re right, the 219 answer had disappeared when I went back to the page. Maybe they’re finally talking to each other.
Throwing up my hands again. Are they screwed up or what?
Question is why was it removed. 2 possibilities.
1). Not going to provide the update tonight
2). 219 isn’t correct.
Wow, amazing.
From Testmasters Website about high scoring:
Michael says:
February 3, 2016 at 4:23 pm
Hi Irving, the new PSAT is not easier than previous years– the increased cutoffs are just a function of the new scoring system
Reply
OK, time to hear from “Bill”.
They also took off the original reply to Sammy which started the 219’s for TX.
January 14, 2016 at 12:04 pm
The SI percentiles are shown on page 13 of this report: https://collegereadiness.collegeboard.org/pdf/2015-psat-nmsqt-understanding-scores.pdf. Based on this, do you think the projected cutoff be lowered from your table above? Would 214 in Texas qualify for NMSF
Doesn’t “easier” mean “more people get very high raw scores”? The conversion of number wrong to scaled score at the top of the curve is not that different from what it was for the old test, so the scaling could not explain the increased number of very high scaled scores. If there are more very high scaled scores, it has to be because there are more very high raw scores. And this is what we usually mean when we say that the test is easier (at least for people near the top of the curve).
I remember someone saying that following this CC thread is like reading a novel. Wow, looks like this one is going to be a bestseller due to the high drama and all the twists and turns. Definitely hard to put this one down. 
Wonder how it will end?
They should NEVER remove an answer. If the answer is no longer correct, they should ADD to the answer and explain / elaborate more. Very bad form. Losing respect for them.
Guessing no update posted from them tonight.
I think they are still trying to figure it out. Seriously, I don’t think they know what to post. An increase, decrease or leave it the same.
It appears they have removed every reply relative to the 219 SI change in Texas? I think Bill and Michael are married to Psychologist and are trying to drum up some business.
More twist here, for the SI Score of texas than Lombard Street in Sanfrancisco! Google that if you are unaware! I prefer to state Lombard Street goes down hill, at least that is the way I ever drove that street down!