I’ve looked again at PrepScholar’s PSAT cutoff predictions, and based on everyone’s analysis on this CC thread as well as on the anecdotes, it’s possible that PrepScholar may be on target. Can anyone comment on their projected PSAT cutoffs? Here’s a sample:
New Jersey 222
District of Columbia 222
Massachusetts 220
California 220
Texas 217
Virginia 217
Georgia 216
On the low end, PrepScholar gives West Virginia and North Dakota a 206. The author, Rebecca Safier, doesn’t give a Commended Score, but states that the average score for NMSF across the country would be 214.
@VABogart I believe these estimates are better than Testmasters’ second (updated) estimates which I believe are too low for the higher states and too high for the lower ones.
If you agree with the Concordance table, which suggests the new scores and old ones overlap around 215~216, and the new scores go up or down on a less steep line, PrepScholar’s estimates make sense. If you believe in the SI table (as national percentages) and with the new percentage definition, PrepScholar’s estimates again make sense.
Testmasters’ estimates are based on last year’s cutoffs, while PrepScholar’s estimates are based on cutoffs two years ago. It’s hard to say this year’s cutoffs resemble which better.
prepscholar prediction seems to be right for CA (220). Testmaster prediction is 219. so both are very close. Seems like lot of kids scored between 216-218 and decent number between 220-222.
Prescholar did not even bother updating the ‘old PSAT cutoff’ to be the ones for the most recent PSAT (Class of 2016, released in September) so I’m guessing they did not spend much time crunching numbers or doing much analysis for the new cutoffs. Sorry, can’t read into theirs at all because of that… no effort. Example, DC was 225 last year, not 224 (that was Class of 2015).
The Compass people has the BEST most insightful analysis of this PSAT issue. Followed by Appleruth.
For those who have not read Compass’s analysis - please do so:
@VABogart As the parent of a daughter in VA with 217, I like PrepScholar. Until I see data that reflects actual test takers from October 14, I put little faith in any of these predictions.
Side point: I saw some of your previous comments about TJ. Keep in mind that you are talking about a population of standardized test prep experts. If the test changed to be more challenging in reading, I would assume that population and their parents were ready for it.
I think probably Testmasters modified their estimate for CA somewhat.
Just a few days ago, they told a 219 from CA that " a score of 219 puts you on the bubble, so to speak. You are at the very edge of what we expect the cutoff score to be in California." Separately, they told a 221 from CA to be “good for California.”
@suzyQ7 I am not trying to defend PrepScholar because I don’t know the real reason. My guess is that they used cutoffs two years ago because that was the last one with percentiles published (last year). If you use last year’s cutoffs, the percentiles are not available. If not for the changes in the test, those percentiles would have been published this year. We all know what happened this year.
@NathanBN Are you saying we have the ‘understanding your scores’ with the percentiles for the Class of 2017 https://collegereadiness.collegeboard.org/pdf/2015-psat-nmsqt-understanding-scores.pdf, but we don’t for the Class of 2016? I’m pretty sure I saw a link for that on this thread, but don’t have time to look right now. Not sure how it would be possible to not yet have percentiles for Class of 2016, when we have the ones for Class of 2017.
Ok, so my GC told me that the lowest SI in the 99th percentile is either 207 or 208 in the updated sheet that was sent to my school by the CB. Are the percentiles for SI that were sent to school guidance counselors believed to be incorrect also or just the chart on pg. 11 of the college board release?
FWIW, speaking of the Compass report, there was a comment by Bill/Michael from Testmasters that was very dismissive of it. Perhaps that’s just competitive envy or sour grapes but it struck me the wrong way and made me question (again) how serious Testmasters is. The most damning aspect of the Compass report I thought was their analysis of the sophomore/junior results where they showed sophomores outperforming juniors. Ok, if that’s not whacked I don’t know what is. That said, still waiting for Testmasters to drop their bombshell…
@suzyQ7 If you followed this thread, earlier people said that the percentage table published each year was based on test in the previous year, and the cutoffs also matched. This year is different though.
@destined4harvard – I am not sure what the GC reports are based upon though they really should be actual test-takers bc their reports compare a student to their school performance & the state. Getting more info from GC reports I think would be very helpful - particularly in larger schools and schools that typically have some NMSFs. Also, I wonder if GC reports indicate if a student is at 99+%ile or stops at 99%ile?
My GC got a sheet sometime last week with SI percentiles (not based on user and national overall scores) and he said that they seemed to be accurate and I’m trying to figure out if the sheet has reliable percentiles for each SI Index. The lowest SI in the 99th that we had was 208 though so idk if it’s accurate. That’s why I asked. @suzyQ7
@NathanBN Sorry - I agree that the percentage table published each year was based on test in the previous year, and the Class of 2017’s %ile table is not, but not sure what that has to do with the fact that prepscholar has a column in their analysis called ‘Old PSAT cutoff’ when it is not the previous cutoff. My guess is, when they updated this back in September to show the new cutoffs, they kept the previous cutoff column as the Class of 2015 scores, and used the current column to show Class of 2016 data (released in September). Then they later went back and put in their predictions, and overlaid Class of 2016 data with their predictions for Class of 2017. Long story short, its a typo. They are busy with prepping kids for SATs and ACTs and probably spent very little time on the predictions. Remember, this is the site that until a few weeks ago predicted new cuttoffs to be -12 of the old ones.