@SLparent Yes, I think the 99+% (ie 99.5%) will be 219 or 220. I haven’t really considered math and reading curves. I’m just looking at SI, since it is the only test score that factors into NMSF.
@thshadow @CA1543 Yeah! I can ask them to show me their “new data sets” then I can show them my file! We can merge the 2 data sets for a new data base. LOL!
@AZcat1 If 220 is the lowest 99+%, then historically, maybe only DC had cutoff as high as lowest 99+%. Then you have to presume every state (even NJ and CA) has 219 or below. I hope you are right, but just wonder.
@NathanBN unfortunately, if you look at 2012, you will see that DC, New Jersey, Massachusetts, California, Maryland, and Virginia were all in the 99+%. Speculation on my part, but I think you will see some of these States with high NMSF cutoffs this year.
@AZcat1 I think you’re right on possibly high cutoffs in those states (DC, NJ, MA, CA, MD, and VA), but at least in VA, almost half (over 40%) of NMSF come from one high school (TJ), whose strength is much more focused on math than on reading/writing. VA also doesn’t follow Common Core, FWIW. That would be the optimist’s argument for VA at 216 (Speedy), 217 (PrepScholar), or 218 (Testmasters). Hope Speedy is right! 
@CA1543, MastersOfTheUniverse has been trying to understand their data and promising to update their predictions every night for several days. With all the difficulties, they are confident when they reach a conclusion it will be “extremely accurate”. That doesn’t inspire confidence.
@Speedy2019 – I agree – and if they only update their predictions about 1 state it will certainly seem they have confidential inside info that does not really translate much to other states. I think @SLparent perhaps should go visit them with our other CC’ers from nearby & have a real “sit down”. Bad enough that CB is messing with everyone’s minds. Time to come clean already Test Masters.
@AZcat1 Thanks. Then what’s you lowest 99%? With these two numbers, we can guess cutoffs for many states.
I posted earlier my guess for lowest 99% is 215. My guess for lowest 99+% is 221.
@SLparent - It would be good to confirm that “Testmaster” actually exists and Bill and Michael aren’t two guys working the drive-thru at a McDonalds?
“It’ll just be a few minutes on the fries. I’m working on an update…”
Besides, what test prep service would be closed on Saturday afternoons one month before the biggest change to the SAT in the last dozen years?
@NathanBN using my same logic, I’d have to say the 99% break-point will be 211-212. Probably a bit optimistic, but there’s not much data to go on.
Nice road win for the Arizona Wildcats tonight!
@Speedy2019 WHAT???!!! This gets stinkier by the day!
I bet Bill and Michael are reading this thread and LAUGHING.
Maybe when this saga is finally written we’ll find out Bill and Michael are the same guy. Nice little side plot twist… :))
@CA1543 @billchu2 I know the local Testmasters office does exist because I’ve been there before. The question is do Bill & Michael exist?
@SLparent…Who lives close to Testmasters in Houston? Maybe they need a visit…what do you think?
@dallaspiano, posted the message below on the Texas cutoff thread at 11:34am today.
Presumably, that message existed on MastersOfTheUniverse’s web site at that time. Looking for the message again, I can not find the Answer or the Question now. Maybe they’ve been deleting answers again today (and maybe even questions).
Notice how on Feb 4th, Michael says a 201 has a good shot at Commended. So they’ve now said over the past few days:
1). 201 is 97th percentile
2). 205 is 99th percentile
Good news?
“Anne Grabois says:
January 12, 2016 at 3:56 pm
I made a 201 and am from Texas. I know that isn’t high enough for National Merit but what do you think about Commended? My score sheet says I’m in the 98% (study group) overall and 97% of actual projected users overall. So would that mean it’s good enough for Commended? Thanks for your help.
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Michael says:
February 4, 2016 at 2:40 pm
Hi Anne! A 201 has a good shot at Commended, which is usually around the 97th percentile!”
If 201 can be a good shot at Commended in TX, can we say 210 be a decent one to make NMSF? Hm Hm
Hunter Stallard says:
January 9, 2016 at 12:49 am
How likely do you think these are? I scored a 215 in Texas, and assumed that I would make the cutoffs on your earlier estimates. : /
Reply
Michael says:
February 4, 2016 at 2:02 pm
Hi Hunter, we’re planning another update tonight, and based on that data, we’re expecting our projections to be in the right ballpark for national merit.
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What SI would make 99.9% for Texas?