@destined4harvard. Do you know how many NMSF your school usually has? Is 6 typical?
@3boystogo, sorry you must have missed the post on that. State Summary Reports are delayed until next school year. So I’m estimating August/September.
Ignore my last comment
I’ll just comment that when testmasters finally releases their “extremely accurate” estimate, they will presumably not explain at all about how they got their number, and we’ll just have to trust them. Right now, I’m not sure how much trust they’re entitled to…
Anywhere from 4-23 @VandyAlum93
@Frankmeister Is there a link to new Testmaster update of Texas at 218. Previously they have been clearly saying new cutoff of Texas going to be 219, and then they removed all reference to that. After that they promised to provide a very accurate prediction.
@thshadow I was about to drive to a local testmasters to see if I could speak to Bill or Michael but the office is closed at 2CST on Saturdays.
@AZcat1, would like clarification on this statement, please: “And, the actual PSAT test data will not follow a normal distribution. If 215.6 is 99+ for the National numbers, I would expect 217 for the National-User numbers, and perhaps 220 for the 2017 PSAT. So, 7,990 at or above 220”
You are saying around 215.6 for 99+ based on National. Guide has 214 as 99+, so close.
You are saying around 217 for 99+ based on Users. Guide has 1430 TS as 99+ for National and 1440 TS as 99+ for User. So apparently 10 TS difference between National and User, so lets call that another 1-2 SI points.
“Perhaps” 220 for PSAT. I lost you on the jump to 220. Are you guessing 220 because of an non-normal distribution? This is based on gut instinct?
That is good news… So maybe 210 will be the cutoff for KY this year after all… It would give your school 14 NMSF which sound pretty typical. Good luck to you @destined4harvard
No post yet. I mistaked the first cutoff postings 218 for the update. Nothing is posted, yet.
Seems confirmed (for now) that the SI% Table is National. Attempting to verify with CB via email.
Appears to me, that would increase the cutoffs by about 2 points to reach “User”. Thus here are updated predicted cutoffs. The cutoffs are based on original SI % table, compensated for National to User and compensated for Definition B.
Highest cutoff is now 218. Commended is 203. Can’t adjust for a dozen anecdotes. There are 36,000 high schools in the country. To those of you who don’t like that, sorry.
State…Predicted
Alabama…206
Alaska…205
Arizona…210
Arkansas…204
California…216
Colorado…210
Connecticut…214
Delaware…211
District of Columbia…218
Florida…209
Georgia…212
Hawaii…209
Idaho…206
Illinois…210
Indiana…208
Iowa …206
Kansas…208
Kentucky…207
Louisiana…207
Maine…207
Maryland…216
Massachusetts…216
Michigan…207
Minnesota…209
Mississippi…206
Missouri…206
Montana…204
Nebraska…206
Nevada…207
New Hampshire…208
New Jersey…218
New Mexico…206
New York …213
North Carolina…210
North Dakota…203
Ohio …210
Oklahoma…206
Oregon…210
Pennsylvania…212
Rhode Island…208
South Carolina …207
South Dakota…203
Tennessee…208
Texas…214
Utah …205
Vermont…209
Virginia…216
Washington…213
West Virginia…203
Wisconsin…206
Wyoming…203
@Speedy2019 that seems to be pretty realistic
@Speedy2019 if you look at the last couple of year’s Understanding PSAT Scores, using the normal distribution calculations with published Mean and SD, you will find that the published 99% and 99+% are usually 3-4 SI points higher than the normal distribution calculation. So, that is how I went from 217 to 220.
I doubt true PSAT test results will follow a normal distribution.
When is test masters supposed to release “extremely accurate” cutoffs? Is that supposed to happen this weekend?
@AZcat1 220 seems a little high to me for 99+%. Can you explain if 220 is 99+%, then why were the curves for math and reading so generous? There are people saying this test was much easier… if that’s true, wouldn’t the curves for math and reading be just as harsh as writing?
@AZcat1 If 220 is the lowest 99+%, then historically, maybe only DC had cutoff as high as lowest 99+%. Then you have to presume every state (even NJ and CA) has 219 or below. I hope you are right, but just wonder.
@SLparent - nice! You go (girl?)!
@SLparent – that would be truly great – maybe you can join they’re team - show them the amazing data chart you created!!! =D>
So it would be interesting to look at “Masters of the Universe’s” current prediction (before the extremely accurate updates are made) vs mine. Their prediction was based off concordance tables. Mine off the SI % table with reasoned modifications. Sorted by SI point differences
At the high cutoff states, the predictions are converging. The highest cutoff states are now within 2-3 points of each other. It is the mid and lower scoring states were there is greatest divergence. Why? Mainly because Testmaster choose the high/higher end of the concorded ranges vs the high cutoff states where they choose closer to the midpoint.
For example, Wyoming had a 202 cutoff last year. The concorded range for 202 is 198 to 210. Testmaster used 210 (and stated they were being conservative). 210 is the high end. If they had choose 204 which is the midpoint, their commended number would be 204, which is close to the 203 predicted by the SI% table with modifications. The entire 7 point difference would be down to a 1 point difference.
Compare that to New Jersey. Last year was 225. The concorded range for 225 is 216 to 223. Testmaster used 220 which is the midpoint.
NOTE: Think Testmaster has Connecticut incorrectly listed at 215 and probably meant 217.
State…2014 Cutoff…Testmasters…Mine…Difference
Connecticut…220…215…214…1
District of Columbia…225…220…218…2
Maryland…222…218…216…2
New Jersey…225…220…218,.2
Virginia…222…218…216…2
California…223…219…216…3
Massachusetts…223…219…216…3
Texas…220…217…214…3
Georgia…218…216…212…4
New York…219…217…213…4
Pennsylvania…217…216…212…4
Washington…219…217…213…4
Arizona…215…215…210…5
Colorado…215…215…210…5
Delaware…216…216…211…5
Hawaii…214…214…209…5
Illinois…215…215…210…5
North Carolina…215…215…210…5
Ohio …215…215…210…5
Oregon…215…215…210…5
Florida…214…215…209…6
Idaho…208…212…206…6
Indiana…213…214…208…6
Iowa …208…212…206…6
Kansas…213…214…208…6
Kentucky…210…213…207…6
Michigan…210…213…207…6
Minnesota…214…215…209…6
New Hampshire…213…214…208…6
New Mexico…208…212…206…6
Oklahoma…208…212…206…6
Rhode Island…212…214…208…6
Tennessee…212…214…208…6
Vermont…214…215…209…6
Wisconsin…208…212…206…6
Alabama…209…213…206…7
Alaska…206…212…205…7
Arkansas…204…211…204…7
Louisiana…211…214…207…7
Maine…211…214…207…7
Mississippi…209…213…206…7
Missouri…209…213…206…7
Montana…204…211…204…7
Nebraska…209…213…206…7
Nevada…211…214…207…7
North Dakota…202…210…203…7
South Carolina …211…214…207…7
South Dakota…202…210…203…7
Utah…206…212…205…7
West Virginia…202…210…203…7
Wyoming…202…210…203…7
The total scores ( out of 1520) include both psat and psat10 so I sm not sure how accurate they are since they include both juniors and sophomores, see the table that is why I looked at the math and reading and writing separately.