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Unless it’s Katy ISD. I don’t know that the test being offered on a weekday really matters here. Our school always did the Wednesday test in the past.
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Thank you @micgeaux for some local knowledge.
It looks like Katy ISD had 51 NMSF last year:
http://www.katyisd.org/Lists/latestnews/DispForm.aspx?ID=480
Not sure how many 11th graders they have that might take the PSAT…
@AnnMarie74, thank you. I found a Math formula to calculate Percentile from Mean and SD
http://bayes.bgsu.edu/nsf_web/jscript/normal_cdf/normal_icdf.htm
And I am using that formula to calculate %tile , it is very conflicting
Ex 1: with SI 205 (lowest 99% in 2015 SI table) comes out 98.58 (M 148/ Sd 26)
Ex 2: with TS 1360 (lowest 99% in 2015 TS table) comes out 98.40 (M 987/ Sd 174)
I guess this formula does not work with 2015 PSAT report.
Also, I still do not find any 99.59 associated with CB data SI 223 in 2014 PSAT
@Speedy2019 Yes, I think it’s time to throw in the towel. My kids aren’t even worried by this and are focused on school, athletics, and other activities - which is good.
@thshadow I agree with speedy that some of the schools must be missing out of the data set, if it is Houston ISD. The area has been growing and adding students with the influx of oil industry employees from the shale boom. The first layoffs happened last summer/early Fall so I don’t think there was a huge decrease in students. Maybe next year, as oil prices continue to stay low.
I thank everyone for all their analysis and sharing of thoughts and for the support shown to each other. I learned more than I every expected to and am grateful to everyone who contributed. Perhaps more news will come out in the coming months but the Test Masters data and revised Texas projection were pretty impactful, though not definitive certainly for other states and perhaps the projected 219 cut off for Texas will turn out to be conservative but hard to get hopes up on that. And the NMSF determination and commended cut off are out of our control.
We are off for college visits next week so that should be exciting! Hope everyone catches up on life a bit - I am rather surprised by the New Hampshire primary results for sure.
Question: do we think the Testmaster data for 8,600 students will look the same as data for the whole state of Texas? Or for the whole U.S.? Nathanb is thinking that more data will normalize the distribution. Is it possible, though, that the “two curves” are a feature of the new test, perhaps caused by a test too easy for the top 3-5% and too hard for the rest? For now I’m thinking that the curve will ultimately normalize more in other states than it does in the Testmaster data or in Texas as a whole because (maybe) Texas has marked disparities in educational resources.
Others can chime in and have stronger stats skills than I do but the test and the way it was curved may produce results that are similar to what Test Masters data shows in other states - I think particularly in states that have the higher cut offs - they will tend to fall on SIs with odd numbers and a lot of great students will miss it by 1 point. @DoyleB and others may have more thoughts on this so I do not mean to have any clear answer and of course we’ll see if over time the test prep companies come out with our state predictions.
I’m wondering if there will be stronger differences between states than in the past with this new test. For example, states that are more ACT focused and where kids do little or no prep for PSAT might have lower scores even at the high end because the new PSAT seems to favor smart students who are well prepared (either by virtue of test prep or strong academic background) while the old test seemed to favor very smart students and those who are very well prepared because of test prep. I know one student, for example, in Ohio who scored an 800 on the December reading SAT, but did around a 690 on the PSAT reading. Very bright student, but has ADHD, so maybe had more trouble with the denser reading? Or maybe just an off day and is irrelevant. 
I thought this is interesting…a chemistry grad. working fat Testmasters
College Compass Introduces Staff Writer Michael
Posted on December 10, 2015 by Michael
cropped-75CollegeCompassFINALsharpenedfadedege222.jpg
Michael recently graduated from Rice University with a B.A. in Chemistry. When he’s not educating people on the fact that you can indeed get a B.A. in a STEM field, Michael enjoys doling out unsolicited advice regarding college admissions. In his non-Testmasters life, Michael enjoys complaining about new movie releases and actively campaigns for people to watch The Wire.
typo at not fat
@LadyMeowMeow, “(maybe) Texas has marked disparities in educational resources.”
Thing about educational resources, from my research in our area, the lower performing schools get WAY more spent on their school on a per student basis than the higher performing schools. The problem isn’t educational resources (ie, money) that is the problem, it is something much more fundamental.
Here’s a thought regarding the Test Masters data sample vs. the number of kids in HISD: Would Test Masters have removed those scores of students deemed ineligible to compete in the National Merit competition? Perhaps representing lack of US citizenship or US permanent residency, for instance. Not sure how they would be able to do so unless that field was included on the data sets they received.
@LadyMeowMeow The school district has to accept anyone who comes. For example, in my younger daughter’s computer applications class, there was a girl who could not speak English. My daughter sat next to her and used Google translate to translate the teacher’s instructions for her. The teacher couldn’t speak the girl’s language, and there are too many kids in the class to give that kind of one-on-one attention. Also, they put some kids who could barely speak English in my daughter’s pre-AP (Honors) English class. (Not sure why they didn’t put her in level English.) Some of the kids are wealthy, but I don’t know that they always care about the PSAT.
@Speedy2019 @micgeaux I thank you both for the on-the-ground reports! I didn’t mean to venture into social criticism, I was simply working on the issue of how well the Test Masters data & prediction will translate to other states. I think NathanB probably has it right that we won’t/ can’t know until September, but that doesn’t stop me from wondering.
I asked this question in the past. Is TX moving up among the states, or it’s just my misunderstanding? From last 9 years of cutoff data, it seems TX gets ranked higher and higher. If that’s true, any reason behind it?
@NathanBN It could be a demographic change. Since cost of living is very very reasonable & there are many good public schools in certain areas of TX. It also has lots of jobs (except for the oil industry recently). Many Californians have moved to TX because you can buy homes for a lot less and there is no state income tax.
In the last few years, MANY highly educated professionals have moved to Texas for the oil business as well as healthcare. I would guess that our school district has a huge percentage of students with both parents have college degrees and potentially masters degrees. Based on the data, this might seem confusing. Our neighborhoods also have very affordable townhomes, apartments, and smaller houses, so we also get families who are really nice, but not as educated from a higher institution perspective.
Regarding Texas, also many hi-tech jobs in Austin. Lots of Indians and Asians in the hi-tech industry. So a source of high achieving students. Parents stress importance of school. My daughter is ranked #2 thus far in her junior year. At #1, #3 and #4 all Indians.
@Speedy2019 Yep! I have heard that Austin is a mini version of Silicon Valley.
Well folks, time for me to sign off this forum. Its been fun. I think I have my answer for Texas at 219.
My prediction for Texas at 214 based on SI % table doesn’t look promising.
In particular, thanks to @thshadow and @DoyleB for their insightful analysis and comments - and so many others.
@dallaspiano, good luck on finishing high school and the upcoming college apps. Finish strong.
Take Care.