As a Floridian who follows this thread, I am really struck by the differences between Florida and Texas. The mean Floridian PSAT score is higher but the national merit cutoffs are lower. In many ways the two states are similar. They both are growing states, have a large group of students who do not speak English as their first language, and a high level of participation in PSAT testing. The difference certainly could be the economic base of the states. Florida is probably more service oriented and Texas has a stronger, growing technology sector. But I also wonder what it says about the educational systems of the two states. I was impressed when I researched some of the large public magnet school programs in Texas such as TAMs. Florida certainly does not have a comparable magnet school program. In fact, the school in Florida that consistently produces the largest number of NMSF is a private school that costs around $30,000/year. However, Florida must be doing something right to have such a strong mean. I wonder if there could be a way to maintain such a high percentage of students who are âcollege readyâ and still have programs to better stimulate the top 1% in a more egalitarian way.
@Speedy2019 â Thanks so much for all you contributed to this thread. Your have been extremely helpful and also fun to read your posts.
And huge good luck to your child. The PSAT result wonât have any major impact on her - so its onward ho!! I am glad my son, who likely will miss the cut off for NY as well has not paid any attention to the PSAT and is blissfully unaware of all the speculation and has no idea how the NM process works. He took the ACT and frankly will be happy not to have to take the SAT. Silver lining of sorts. 
@Speedy2019, thank you.
Our True_Beleivers regroup and we sign off too
TAMS is super selective and highly unrepresentative.
@Speedy2019 I wouldnât give up so early. Why do you say he likely will miss the cut off for NY? Last year TX was one point higher than NY. This means 218 certainly has hope in NY. Donât forget TX has steadily gone up while NY has been basically bouncing between 215 and 219 in the last 9 years.
Keep up the hope.
sorry I mean for @CA1543.
@dallaspiano Thanks so much for all you have contributed to this thread, Your amazing energy and analytical ability, among what I am certain are so many other talents and skills, will help you achieve many great successes. We wish you only the best!!
I told DS this morning his 216 probably wasnât going to cut it. He too, was unfazed. Maybe in Sept we will all be delightfully surprised
I still feel like anything is possible so I wouldnât be giving up hope! (ThisâŠcoming from a pessimist!)
@NathanBN â thanks for your encouragement â it might turn out ok - just way too close to get any comfort and NY & Texas have been mostly at the same cut off score most years. The glob of students at 218 that seems likely to occur seems like theyâd be too many to include - even if some might be possible to squeeze into NYâs approximately 1000 NMSF spots. Thatâs why a 219, which is a high score only achieved by a small number of students who got half credit on a question, makes for a cleaner place to âcutâ that would allow in all students with that score. But who knows - I honestly am though surprised (in a negative way) that CBâs Understand Your Scores is rather misleading about percentiles of SIs as I image it will give lots of families more hope that will turn out to be dashed. But some of the test company predictions will also prove to be off as well. I do hope that the NMSFs do not end up being more concentrated in certain schools or communities that focus so much on test prep while others that have had 1 or a few NMSFs each year or so are largely left out. Weâll see how it goes though.
I will still comeback and check this forum! At CA 220 I am dangling over there with the gut feeling that it probably is going to be 221. What I know today about PSAT and SI score , and its importance, had I have known earlier, result could have been better. The fact that old SAT not necessarily works for PSAT for getting a competitive SI score. I am with everyone though, life need to move on, there is the ACT and New SAT to prepare for now. Whatever will be will be! So many of you contributed, did analysis, brought different perspective, that is something I gained being here.
I will continue to check this forum, for hope springs eternal in this parentâs heart! Reality is that I expect Ohio to come in at 216, primarily based on a hunch (my daughter is at 215). I have believed in the power of anecdotal evidence - SI cutoff for a state should be the lowest SI reported for a school that contributes steadily 5% or more of the stateâs allocations. This simple method of allocation broadly explains larger phenomenon nationally.
The SF is a special animal, not explained by the system (aka schools, districts or states, resources & such - which can explain mode, mean and median). Instead, itâs explained by the educational backgrounds of the households that corresponds to the SF nominee. Kind of like the Pareto Principal, I believe 80% of the SF nominees are explained by a 20% phenomenon, 10% for the each parentâs masterâs level education! We, the parents, are likely highly educated ourselves, and value test scores as an indicator for importance of education in our professional lives. Due to our own labor-reward experience, we instill in our children why test scores matter (among other things). Itâs the culmination of years of discipline, rigor, and motivation - thereâs fruit hanging up on that tree, only the highest jumper can have one!
For those signing off, I wish you the very best.
@CA1543 I understand what you said. If the 218 group could be sliced, I agree the cut would go right thru it. This year there are fewer scores and thus more people per score (especially even scores). But remember if NY cutoff turned out to be 219, it would be equivalent to old score 220, a level NY never reached.
Anyway, best luck and thank you for this wonderful and informative thread.
Thanks much @NathanBN â appreciate it.
Thanks to everyone on this thread! It has been fun, informative and exciting! Up and down! Best wishes to yâall from TX and good luck to all your children
I will check in on this thread too. Hope not too many posters leave and report any finds. While I think the Testmasterâs latest report probably is the best prediction we have, as it seems based on an actual test population, it hasnât brought me closure. In my case, with sub scores of 35, 35, 34.5, the percentiles derived from Testmasters 219 cutoff donât tell me whether concordance or the CB user percentiles and published are right. Concordance is off (too conservative) at least by 1 point on all sections and up to 3 or 4 on CR/W. However, the reported user and p11 SI percentiles seem to be too high (generous) by about a 1%. Oh well, I guess the bottom line, is high states high, low states probably lowish and a sort of free-for-all in the middle. Have to agree with overall sentiment, CB seems to have led many of us up the garden path with the funky percentiles.
Wanted to post for the hopeful who are still around, This is from Testmasters Website, I guess they are keeping Glass half full approach!
Is 220 CA enough for nmsf? I am so anxious.
Reply
Bill says:
February 9, 2016 at 1:49 pm
Jared,
A 220 should be sufficient for CA, but we just wonât know for sure until the fall. My advice would to move on to other things â ultimately, your PSAT score will not be what gets you into your first college of choice. Your SAT, GPA, extracurriculars, recommendations, leadership credentials, etc. all play a role in the college admissions process. National merit is outside of your control, so donât spend too much time fretting about it. Concentrate on those things you can control.
Hope this helps!
For Light question and a serious reply from Bill who is a Chemistry MajorâŠ
Who are Bill and Michael? Are you real?
Reply
Bill says:
February 9, 2016 at 12:11 pm
Tim Tim,
Thatâs quite the existential query. If you are familiar with Descartesâ Meditations on First Philosophy, you might argue that as one has thought, which undoubtedly exists, and as thought is inseparable from oneself, then one must necessarily exist. However, as Descartes points out, the establishment of oneself does not preclude the existence of a genius malignus, or evil demon, capable of perpetuating falsities to our senses. Given that I know that I exist, because I am capable of thought and therefore must exist in some capacity or another, I think itâs more appropriate that I ask: are you real?
Hope this helps!
PS Next time, please try and stay on topic.
So now we know. Bill is really Siri.
@replyback @Mamelot Itâs Michael thatâs a Chem⊠grad from Rice, not Bill. But it looks like Bill has been there longer than Michael! I wondered who did the analysis?