National Merit Cutoff Predictions Class of 2017

I got no useful info from our GC, The reply was so generic, I am thinking this school does not understand the NMSF cutoff and not focused on it:

“College Board doesn’t have this information until August, so we’ve been told. Also, percentiles have been inflated and the data cannot be read until we have national figures.”

When further asked data specific to school the GC replied school do not supply statistics to students!

Hope others are more successful with their GC and have more direct data about CA or other states for that matter.

Thanks @replyback – I thought Gc’s were getting some actual percentiles. Maybe we’ll hear some school results at some point. Thanks for trying!

@CA1543 Our GC, from the tone of it, does not seem at all involved or concerned about the #NMSF. The reply had this:

That is just information I received from our (omitted) rep.

I don’t believe we have any data as the test was just given Oct. 14th.

…National Merit will determine the cutoff score for the NMSC, but so far, we have not been told when that date will be.

@replyback – If GC is interested (big IF?) they can get info here: https://lp.collegeboard.org/help-resources-accessing-scores

Tutorial here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HgQfbryW2qg
Types of reports: https://collegereadiness.collegeboard.org/educators/k-12/reporting-portal-help

There are webinars too that can be helpful. If your school typical does not have NMSFs though maybe GC is not so interested to learn what’s available though.

@CA1543 Thanks for the link. No I do not think the GC wants to be disturbed, and would want to do more from the tone of it. No this school gets very large number of #NMSF, I guess they are used to it that parents and students take care of all the need without them needing to know! In general they have many other things to do, but yes, I am very surprised.

@replyback — AAAHH that’s pretty interesting to me - wow, they don’t really care about the new test and to see how the students performed - or perhaps they do have the info and don’t want to share it? CB specifically is encouraging schools to discuss results with students for a variety of reasons. Surprised there are not many parents demanding some info or a meeting to discuss results etc.

Ours is a small school in California. We had 1 NMSF last year. The GC let us know that the school tends to have one per year and the top two scores are 1470s with one of them being SI 221.

@svetoy Good info. In CC it is being discussed that CA cutoff may well be 221, I am keeping only small hope that it is 220 or below.

Thanks @svetoy – appreciate that info - we hear about there being so many high scores that it is refreshing to hear results in line with the past. Test Masters predicts 221 will make the cut in CA. We’ll see. thanks!

If people really want the data, it’s possible that some would be able to get it with a state open records request (if the GC already has it).

@Lea111 can anyone just request for the records? How do you do that?

The Data that GC have in a school will not be generic, it will have students name etc, this may not be data of “public interest” that can be requested. Wish schools would not mind sharing basic profiles of the result, I had requested average score of the school, and what score may be 50th from the top.

@Lea111 – That’s very clever - yes a FOIL request could help!! They could give report without any student names being listed but school comparison to state could be relevant. Can’t “make them” get the report I believe but if they have it, then via a Freedom of Information Request, it could be obtained.

First time posting - I have thoroughly enjoyed reading this thread! I’m no statistician, but am amazed at how folks
have thoroughly analyzed and made sense of the data available. My son has TS 1430, SI 212 in KY. I know he’s on the bubble, but have a feeling he may just miss the cut. I’ve asked his GC for # of SI scores at 212, and # above 212. GC said she could not give me any info due to student confidentiality. I’m not interested in names, just numbers. She said I’d have to wait until Fall when public information would be available. Our public school has 1-4 NMSF each year, so I was hoping to get a feel for the number of high scorers. My son knows of two other classmates with higher scores, 214 and 216 (but could be more, I suspect). Is it true that my request for SI numbers infringes on student confidentiality?? Would love to provide GC with document that says she’s not breaking any rules to give me that info! I think school just doesn’t want to chance giving sensitive info.

I haven’t been able to really contribute here but have also really enjoyed this thread. Appreciate all the great information that has been provided. 11 months is really a very long time to wait for answers. Folks in past years at least had real data to go off of. @Love2Golf I don’t know about any infringements but have seen so many people posting on FB (just a general FB search for PSAT) that their child’s score is the top score of their school, or the second highest, or in the top 10, etc. And, that the info. was provided by the GC. So it seems some are very willing to give out info. Even if it’s just TS the GCs are going by, they are at least providing a bit of a gauge for those families. Time will tell for us all but hopefully more information from schools will become available sooner than later.

I have heard from several well placed sources that GG’s are not forthcoming here in MN either. Just too many variables have changed for this test, is the reason given. I wonder if this is a mutual decision on everyone’s part (erring on the side of discretion) or whether CB has passed along guidance on this issue.

Welcome @Love2Golf ! It is good to see another fellow Kentuckian on this thread. @destined4harvard goes to a KY school that typically produces a large # of NMSF, and his GC shared some scores with him. See his earlier posts from Feb 6. His GC is thinking the KY cutoff will be 209-210, so I think that is promising. Good luck to you and your son!

My gut feeling is that GCs are not confident about what the data on the reports really means. They are mostly aware of the inflated percentiles in the research study etc. and want to distance themselves from this round - better to just wait it out till September. I think many GCs are suggesting that students just stick with the ACT as a known quantity and the new SAT has not even come out once, so this year’s PSAT is not very helpful for guidance on the SAT vs. ACT question. So CB’s in-depth reporting and the subscores and what everything in the student’s PSAT report means (college readiness, shills to work on vs. mastered, AP courses to take etc.) and guidance is not really being taken very seriously. Of course some who did very well will take the new SAT - why not if you can fit it in and you are not “relying” on it as your only test before college apps.

I agree that they aren’t confident - and with good reason!!! One look at the percentile tables released by CB and suddenly everyone’s NM potential! Much better to wait. Getting at some meaningful conclusions has taken nearly six weeks for those who have been devoted to the issue on a daily basis. . . the GC’s have a whole lot more on their plate right now (not the least is advising their students regarding college acceptances).

And then there is the ACT writing debacle …seems like class of 2017 has been dealt a raw deal!

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/act-essay-scores-are-inexplicably-low-causing-uproar-among-college-bound-students/ar-BBpqkRd?ocid=spartandhp

Interesting how you can pay to have the essay rescored. The example in the article tells of someone who had a 19. When re-graded the score jumped to a 31. How is that big of a discrepancy even possible? My son took the ACT for the first time, with minimal prep and received a 30 composite. The objective was to get a baseline to see areas to focus on. I was shocked when his writing score came in at 20 … While I don’t believe he is a superior writer, he is definitely not a 20! So what is a kid to do … ACT or the new SAT? There don’t seem to be a lot of good options for this class.