National Merit Cutoff Predictions Class of 2017

This was interesting from the report:

and then more specifically:

Apparently the percentile tables are actually preliminary, and will be replaced!

@theshadow They have promised final concordance tables in May, but I don’t think that is what she is getting at. I think she just means that when students get their reports for the 2016 PSAT it will give their percentiles based on the 2015 exam. This is the way they have calculated percentiles in the recent past.

I think I just sent Ms. Schmeiser an e-mail. At least it bounced the first time but not the second time. I doubt I’ll hear back but I’ll be sure to let you all know if I do!

@candjsdad thanks for the link.
@pickmen totally agreed with your post #3239.

Why does CB not have any common sense? Whenever you have a major conversion of a system, of a major test, or an engine, you will have kinks and until the kinks are ironed out, just simply mark “PRELIMINARY” on charts, graphs, data, ect., etc
 They marked “preliminary” all over the concordance tables, didn’t they?

Did they not have any in-house legal counsel/accountants look at these things?

With that plunge of the knife, I believe CB has vanquished the remaining true believers.

@candjsdad - read the section that I quoted carefully:

Unless I’ve misunderstood something, CB is saying that they are going to re-release the percentiles for us in 2016, based on people that actually took the test. (Not sure what they’re waiting for, but whatever
)

@LivinProof - I can’t figure out if I should mark your post as “Helpful” or “Like”
 :((

CB had all the scores from those who took the PSAT – it’s not rocket science to simply place them on a spreadsheet and readily have the true percentiles in place. This makes the “research study” look like a ruse, and a front to simply get students to feel that they did better on the PSAT than was actually the case. As Trump would say, “What they did was disgraceful.”

Yes, I don’t understand why the percentiles ever should be based on the previous year’s class. The previous year’s class did not take this year’s test. The only reason I can think of to do it this way is to introduce some noise into the data so that National Merit can string everyone along for another year.

Agreed, can anyone think of any logical or technical reason to not publish the actual percentiles when you have all of the scores?

If we ever get an advocate into the college board, the very simple question is “Why do you choose to not publish the actual percentiles for the selection index when you have all of the data?”

It’s not a difficult question.

@thshadow our daughters’ 217s are still an amazingly great score and they are going to thrive in college. My oldest daughter (a better student/test taker) only made commended as well, but went on to score a 2320 on the SAT and is now enjoying her freshman year at Cal as A Regent Scholar. With the guaranteed meeting of full need the Regents scholarship ended up being full tuition for us. So there’s always other doors that may open.

There are many things about this process that do not make sense. Why don’t they just announce semi-finalist when they announce Commended in the spring? The calculation is done by a computer, so they must already know the cutoff scores. That would give semi-finalist all summer to fill out the application & take the SAT. Some people actually need to apply & choose schools based on how much NFM scholarship money they offer. Why wait until after all the college application deadlines to tell kids if they made finalist?

Because for finalist they are waiting for the senior grades, but there is no excuse for not releasing the semifinalists once the scores are back.

@TxMum2 I said this a long time ago
 as soon as those tests were done graded
the highest 50,000 highest scores could very easily be spit out by a simple sort.

The only reason why they can not announce the NMSF’s for each state is because the allotment is based on high school graduates for each state. These numbers are not known until Sept of each year
 I guess NMSC wanted to make sure everyone is done relocating during summer before finalizing #of graduating seniors for each state. They probably get a projection of graduates from each state.

Example of allotment for TX:

TX graduating seniors/Total graduating Seniors X 16,000 = TX allotment

I suspect they want to make the announcements in the kids’ senior year of high school rather than junior year.

I understand waiting until their senior year to announce Finalist, but November instead of February would be much more convenient as far as filling out college applications. I guess they wait for 1st semester senior grades, but I imagine the % of NMSF who bomb their senior year is very small.

Well, about 1000 don’t qualify. Some may not bother to finish the application process, but you can certainly see posts from anxious seniors who received C’s in the NM forum here.

@LivinProof - Yeah, if the CA cutoff is 99.4%, the 217 will probably be 99.1% or 99.2%. Which is terrific!! (Actually in the case of my daughter and where she came from, “amazing” is the most appropriate adjective
 :slight_smile: )

I actually went to Cal (as a grad student), and now I work at Google, so Cal did good by me!

I think the timing of the September release of SF has to do with logistics
 The same people that are dealing with the Class of 2016 now - sending letters, cutting checks to colleges, etc
 are the same people who will ‘close the books’ on that class, and turn to Class of 2017 come May. I bet they are thinly staffed. Sure, its easy to just sort the spreadsheet, but they need to crunch the number of high school students from every state, produce the annual report, answer the phone for the 50,000 SFs who call etc
 Let’s not diminish the amount of work it is to implement this contest fairly.

And I believe there are still people without scores.

Is 225 enough for washington state?

Yes *-:slight_smile: