@Waldoizhere a 225 is an okay score but not nearly good enough to make the cutoff in Washington state.
Every estimate I have seen suggests a 225 in Washington will be NMSF.
I cite 2 here:
http://collegeadmissions.testmasters.com/update-psat-scores-cut-national-merit-2016/
http://www.â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â /national-merit-semifinalist-cutoffs/
Pretty sure nmpapa was just teasing. 
Donât think we have seen any prediction which would have a 225 not making NMSF in every state, have we?
@CA1543 disappointed that you would give THAT question a serious response.
Iâm not sure if you are still looking for anecdotes from states that have not been discussed very much on this thread. My son is at a prep school in AZ with a class of about 300. They typically have about 5% of the class achieving NM in any given yearâŠhowever, class of 2016 only had about 2%âŠclass of 2014 had about 8%. My sonâs GC told me his 216 SI score is in the top 7% for the class of 2017. Compass prediction for AZ is 216, Testmasterâs 215. Last yearâs cutoff for AZ was 215.
@mnpapa29 â People get so confused and anxious - just want to redress someoneâs stress!! Assumed it was asked by someone who was unsure - but of course that answer âWE knowâ was a joke.
@mom3eps Do you know if your son is at the top, middle or bottom of that 7%?
@SLparent 3242 agreed. Itâs totally weird what CB has done. Now theyâre saying the percentiles published are really âpreliminary,â just underscores this fiasco. Iâm still a bit confused though about this. Is CB âtellingâ us in so many words the national and user percentiles they published, which were derived from research studies, are now really just âpreliminaryâ percentiles because the data they got from research studies has substantially deviated in fact from the results of the actual test? OK, fair enough, but they had an âextraâ month to inform us of this so why tell us now? All right moving on, I think the clincher for me was the data about the Hispanic cut-offs. The Texas one went from 182 to 191 and the southern from 199 to 204. This illustrates the compression by almost 2x moving up the tail. National commended always hovered around 202, so I expect the compression to continue continue and instead of a 3 point to a 207 commended cut-off that Compass predicts, think it will be slightly less, 205 or maybe 206. This works a bit better too, though not that well, with the Testmastersâ sampling of 8500 actual testers. Bottom line we have commended now more or less and very good predictions for the SF cutoffs. Iâll still keep my eye on this thread, See if people get state scores or more anecdotal. I guess in April, weâll know commended for sure.
Looking at @Waldoizhereâs earlier posts it appears that he/she really might be worried. So, dude, consider this definitive: you received a 1500/1520, 750 on both sections and a 225/228 in a mid-range cut-off state. You. Are. Safe.
Now go out and do something fun today rather than worry about your PSAT score.
@SLparent I am guessing he is at the bottom of that 7%
I agree. If not, I would say you are in top 5% or 3% or whatever is applicable.
@mom3eps Is there any way you can find out where your son is in that top 7%? Why do you think heâs at the bottom of the 7%?
Please donât ask if you made the cutoff if you have a 221 or above. Iâm positive that makes it for every state. Ppl like me (216 in NC) are the ones who are shaky
If they said he was in the top 5% or top 10%, I think its more likely he could have fallen anywhere within the range. But 7% is a very specific number. I wouldnât give that number unless he was at or near the bottom of that range. But only way to know for sure is to ask.
@SLparent I really think he must be at the very bottom of that. I think if he was in the top 5% she would have said so. So I believe 216 is the bottom of the top 7% for his school which typically has around 5% NM. She followed it up by saying they have no idea how our school will fare on this new testâŠin other words will it favor their prep school curriculum or not?
Saying 7%, and not 5% or 10%, does seem odd. Kind of makes me wonder if maybe the same thing happened at this school that happened at the one in Illinois. Maybe a big block of kids all came in at 216. (If I remember right 12 came in at 218 at the Illinois school.)
âWithin the class of 2017, though, we are seeing a dramatic reordering of choices, and many students [who took the PSAT] would like to stick exclusively to ACT.â
Based on this Compass statement, letâs swing for the fences. Suppose that, due to this statement and CB wanting to be sure to capture the requisite number of National Merit Finalists, they EXPAND the number of NMSFs to factor in the fact that a certain (greater) number of students will take a pass on taking the SAT and otherwise pursuing the path to finalist status. For example, CB declares that it will take 18-19,000 NMSFs instead of 16,000 in order to attain the 15,000 final figure of finalists. Then, based on the Compass numbers, the cutoffs could look like this:
New Jersey, District of Columbia: 219
California, Massachusetts: 218
Virginia: 217
Texas: 216
North Carolina: 213
Commended: 204 etc., etc.
Is this at least a plausible scenario, given everything else that CB is doing to recapture SAT market share?
Can someone be a NMSF and a Hispanic semifinalist? Or is that not possible? Also, can someone please fill me in specifically about the Kentucky cutoff? Is there any chance that a 210 could make it?
I wonder what percentage of the MNSFs in any given year donât take the SAT. Seems to me that knowing you did well on PSAT and that you need to take the SAT to become a finalist, you likely take it. It is my understanding that the 1,000 of so SFs who do not become finalists have issues with teacher nominations or discipline or grade issues or just do not submit the forms rather than not taking the SAT or failing to get a confirming score. So it may not be the case that if more kids will take the ACT instead of the SAT that the number of NMSFs who wonât take the SAT will increase.
@destined4harvard Based on the scenario (see #3276), Kentucky could come right in at 210 (which is the Compass borderline number). Wouldnât discount CBâs motives to ensure that more folks aim to take the SAT, even if it means increasing the number of NMSFs to 18-19,000 (or more) in order to reach its 15,000 finalist number.