But if they have 18-19k SFs with an idea of getting more kids to take the SAT, they may well end up with 17-18k finalists.
And isn’t the College Board separate from the National Merit Scholarship Corporation?
@VABogart That theory is plausible (I mentioned that in one of these threads too), but I doubt they would go 18-19K because the contest docs (http://www.nationalmerit.org/student_guide.pdf) for the students who took the Oct 2015 PSAT specifically say ~16,000 students become SF. So, I don’t believe they would go into the 17+K figures, but they may go well into the 16K number (say 16,900) to be able to normalize the cutoffs a bit more this year, then increase the number they chop in from SF to Finalists so they get the 15K number they need to be at.
Yes, and the National Merit Scholarship Corporation has no interest in or incentive to make more people take the SAT.
@ynotgo Agree - NMS has no incentive to make more people take the SAT. However, I think the competition would be a lot ‘fairer’ and more ‘meritorious’ and holistic if they pushed through 18 or 19K SFs and cut out 3-4K of them in the finalist stage based on grades, essays, etc… than what they do now, which is base the majority of this contest on ONE TEST, junior year. Its kind of mind boggling that they make 16K kids fill out apps, Take the SAT with a ‘qualifying score’ and write essays, when there is a 95% chance that those kids will make it to finalist. I bet they don’t even read the essays except as a tiebreaker in states where they are trying to make a certain set of numbers.
It would make a lot more sense for them to just jack up the SAT qualifying score, or reject more students with Cs, etc…
Don’t they typically have something between 16,000 and something a little less than 17,000 NMSFs? According to the 2013/14 NMSC annual report, there were 16,227 semifinalists. So aren’t they already adjusting the number within about a 1,000 or so (presumably based on fluctuations with the numbers of kids making any given cutoff in each state)? How much room would they likely have to bump up the SF numbers because of compression or whatever this year and still stay under 17,000?
If they jack up the SAT qualifying score, wouldn’t that likely mean that more kids in the low cutoff states wouldn’t make finalist (losing on on possible merit money)? Increasing the SF numbers and making it harder or at least cutting more people so they still remain at 15,000 would be a big change to how the NMSC currently operates. Not sure they have shown any interest in doing that at this point. But who knows.
suzyQ7 Yes, I agree with you that it would be fairer to have 18,000 or 19,000 NMSFs; however, I’d be encouraged if they took just under 17,000 (e.g., 16,990) to help normalize the cutoffs, which could perhaps reduce the SI cutoff score by a point, possibly two, in a number of states.
A close-to-17,000 figure also would be justifiable and perhaps even necessary, given the sawtooth scoring pattern revealed by the 8500 TX scores received by Testmasters.
Art has increased (Compass) has increased the IL cutoff to 218 and range to 216-219 yesterday!
http://www.■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■/national-merit-semifinalist-cutoffs/
@rb681000 I am also finding out that total score range of1420 to 1470 can have 218 index score (A child with perfect EBRW - 760 and Math at 660 can be at 218! In my daughter’s case 1470 (760 in Math and 710 EBRW ended with 218). So, index score has a huge variation hence as I had posted earlier that my daughter School had 12 children scoring 218 in IL. Also a 1470 score can have as high as 223 index score.
Yesterday night Compass site has increased IL cut off to 218 with a projected range of 216-219. So, in my daughter’s case we have to keep our fingers crossed till September! I think 219 should be safe in IL.
@WGSK88 what did Compass have IL at before? Did they mention an update?
@Mamelot They had IL at 216 (214-217). I had written to them and they responded in the response which is also included in their URL.
Thanks @WGSK88 I’ll check it out. MN tracks IL pretty closely so should then be changed to 217 with a range of 214 - 219.
From KY Governor’s Scholars Program, I found this chart (02/15/2016)
http://gsp.ky.gov/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=6ObIHXi3eIM%3d&tabid=71
In this chart we can see some how 34 ACT and 2260 old SAT are considered equivalent with PSAT 99 percentile SI
Today, I just find out they update the chart
http://gsp.ky.gov/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=cvFfRgUzPLY%3d&tabid=125
In this chart we can see some how 34 ACT and 2260 old SAT are considered equivalent with PSAT (211-240)
Clearly 211 is the top end of the score when, 211 must be the magic number to be considered NMSF?
34 ACT is considered very high end, so 211 (of 228) must be the same - in order to get serious 10 points award
Trouble is the number 240, since they just update why use 240, instead 228. Is it mislabeled?
Since
With new PSAT score system for 2015 (max 228) - second table
- 211 and up to 228: 99 percentile
- 205 and up to 210: 98 percentile
With old PSAT score system for year 2014, 2013 (max 240) - if using second table
- 211 and up to 214: 98 percentile
- 205 and up to 207: 97 percentile
I think it is mislabeled as they updated it for this year.
@dallaspiano what page on their site links to http://gsp.ky.gov/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=cvFfRgUzPLY=&tabid=125 and on their info for Counselors is this: 1/7/2016 Update:
PSA to all counselors: In light of PSAT updating how score percentiles are calculated for students, we have modified our rubric to refer directly to the Selection Index. Please use the new rubric under Forms and Resources on our website as you submit your applications to the state level. We will maintain flexibility in working with all school districts. Please call our office with any questions or concerns that you may have at 502-573-1618.
I see it is linked to on the Forms and Resources but it is not the link for Selection Process http://gsp.ky.gov/Applicants/Apply/Selection-Process.aspx
@dallaspiano, do you know if KY’s scholar program always assigns max 10 points to the first SI at 99 percentile? If so, this data point could indicate that the first SI at 99 percentile has shifted up 6 rungs from the SI percentiles issued by CB on pg 11 from 205 to 211. Although, I wouldn’t treat KY scholar program selection criterion to be indicative of SF cutoff determined by NMSC for KY.
Last year (2014 PSAT), the first SI at 99 percentile was 213.
@OHToCollege, you got what I meant, my friend
“first SI at 99 percentile has shifted up 6 rungs”
Yeah, maybe there’s hope yet! Last year KY’s cutoff for SF was 210 which is at 98 percentile. Do you know if KY’s scholar program last year awarded 10 points to SI 213?
That’s interesting @dallaspiano ! Whereas they were giving 10 points for 99th percentile, this year they’ve decided to change that to give 10 points for a 211. You could certainly imagine that means they think 211 is (should be) the beginning of the 99th percentile. This differs from the released percentile tables (based on the research study), which show 205 as the start of the 99th percentile. If you just add 6 to those released tables, then 220 (instead of 214) would be the start of the 99+.
That’s definitely somewhat consistent with the other recent reports, e.g. that California could be 219 or 220.
@OHToCollege, look at column for 34 ACT and 2260 old SAT
For the last 2 years, 34 ACT associated with 14,000+ test takers
For the last 2 years, 2260 old SAT associated with 15,000+ test takers
KY GSP thinks 34 ACT = 2260 old SAT = 211 (2015 PSAT)
Now about 211, what do you think? We will have 15000+ NMSF this year