National Merit Cutoff Predictions Class of 2017

LOL, @theshadow are you my avatar? Am I yours?

Yes, KY’s scholar program always assigns max 10 points for 99 percentile. The table always showed percentile instead of SI. This is the first time they have written score instead of percentile and when I last looked at it about a month ago it had percentile instead of SI. Looks like they recently updated it as they are going through selection process of Governors scholar students.

"For the last 2 years, 34 ACT associated with 14,000+ test takers
For the last 2 years, 2260 old SAT associated with 15,000+ test takers

KY GSP thinks 34 ACT = 2260 old SAT = 211 (2015 PSAT)

Now about 211, what do you think? We will have 15000+ NMSF this year"

@thshadow, you are my man (always)
@OHToCollege, please see

2015 SAT data:
https://secure-media.collegeboard.org/digitalServices/pdf/sat/sat-percentile-ranks-composite-crit-reading-math-writing-2015.pdf

2014 SAT data:
https://secure-media.collegeboard.org/digitalServices/pdf/sat/sat-percentile-ranks-composite-crit-reading-math-writing-2014.pdf

Yeah but 34 ACT and 2260 old SAT are not the first 99 percentiles, they are higher. It’s possible that 211 SI for KY is a typo? Just like 240, which is not even possible in 2015 PSAT?! In 2015, 33 ACT was 99 percentile and 2220 is the first 99 percentile on old SAT.

@OHToCollege, you are right “Yeah but 34 ACT and 2260 old SAT are not the first 99 percentiles”, so how can you make conclusion that SI 211 is the first 99 percentile?

@OHToCollege, you are right again “It’s possible that 211 SI for KY is a typo? Just like 240”. Typo mistake

and this one is about 240 or 228

"I (me, dallaspiano) got reply from Danielle Moore (KY GSP)

"Thank you for this information. At the time that information was put together with incomplete information available to us from College Board regarding how PSAT scores were being reported. We have re-reviewed since and new scales are in place. To avoid confusion, they have not been published since all of the applicants are already here at the state level GSP selection process.

Thank you and please do not hesitate to let us know if you have any further questions!"

They noticed the new scale (228) in “We have re-reviewed since and new scales are in place”"

So much for concordance. Don’t quite understand what this statement means “To avoid confusion, they have not been published since all of the applicants are already here at the state level GSP selection process.”?

@OHToCollege,
I just ask rhetoric questions in general, but I do not expect a clear answer from you since you are not KY GSP official. I am sorry if you think my questions are personal to you. That’s not I meant at all

@thshadow, can you explain msg #3297
“You could certainly imagine that means they think 211 is (should be) the beginning of the 99th percentile”

So how can you make conclusion that SI 211 is the first 99 percentile?

Since OHTocollege stated in msg #3303
“In 2015, 33 ACT was 99 percentile and 2220 is the first 99 percentile on old SAT.”

Absolutely no offense taken or meant @dallaspiano. I merely stated that I could not understand what the KY GSP person meant by that statement.

My 210 earned me all 10 points for the test portion of the GSP application if anyone cares. I’m not sure that the chart they provided is useful.

I got an email response from CB that I originally sent over a month ago about the SI % table. Notice the “next few years” reference
 Bye y’all (Texas lingo, although I was born in Chicago!)

"Thank you for contacting the College Board.

We have received your e-mail in regard to the PSAT/NMSQT selection index percentiles. We will be more than happy to assist you.

Please be advised that for the next few years; all norm groups for score ranges, mean scores, and percentiles will be derived from research data, and not prior test-taking populations due to the assessment re-design.

We apologize for any inconvenience that you may have experienced."

@dallaspiano - I was just looking at the PSAT. It seems you used to earn 10 points for being in the 99th percentile of the PSAT. Now they changed that to give you 10 points if you have a 211. It seems reasonable to me to conclude that KY thinks that a 211 on this year’s PSAT is equivalent to 99th percentile in years past. I didn’t even look at the ACT and SAT scores. I don’t see how they’re relevant
???

@thshadow, idk either

From their table, I would say SI 211 is in the range of 99 percentile, and 211 is not the very first of 99 range.

About ACT, and old SAT scores, just a comparison

“For the last 2 years, 34 ACT associated with 14,000+ test takers
For the last 2 years, 2260 old SAT associated with 15,000+ test takers”

and we will have 15000+ NMSF

One thing for sure “KY GSP thinks 34 ACT = 2260 old SAT = 211 (2015 PSAT)”

no way does 34 ACT=211 PSAT. I don’t have figures, but just talking to everyone
I think it will be 214-215. Anyone else?

it it helps, my daughter’s PSAT is 215, ACT C 34. So, yes I believe 34 ACT = 214-215 PSAT, considering different test formats with brutal science curve on ACT. Although 3-4 months of time between two tests could result in small test score improvement.

@kikidee9 you probably just come across, we have questions about the following table

http://gsp.ky.gov/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=cvFfRgUzPLY%3D&tabid=125

in the KY GSP http://gsp.ky.gov/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=SLs1SiGPNJk%3d&tabid=70

@dallaspiano thanks for bringing the KY GSP to this thread. It’s interesting because it puts the 99% range between 228 (presuming their 240 is a typo) and 211, 98% btwn 210 and 205, and 97/96% at 204-197. However, I don’t see these ranges as accurate, especially on the low end. The Southern Hispanic commended came in at 204 and usually, I believe, this # is around 95.5%, whereas the KY seems to have it at around 97%.

besides @destined4harvard claims he was given 10 score on 210 SI. They must be using the published SI percentiles from CB’s reference population.

@Speedy2019 I got the same exact response from CB last week.