I believe some called KY GSP- a person from GSP said they changed the table after consultation with a CB official to see equivalency between the three test scores. Maybe, you guy adults can call the one on the KY GSP from
http://gsp.ky.gov/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=SLs1SiGPNJk=&tabid=70
especially who are KY residents (like @destined4harvard and @louisvilleky)
This 211 is a very important clue IMO
Just to clarify - I was originally going to disagree with your statement. But then I saw that KY lets you submit any of those 3 tests, for whichever gets you the most points. So yes, I understand now why @dallaspiano is making the above statement.
My initial reaction is that KY is wrongā¦ 
@thshadow, you got it. I meant the table as you mentioned āBut then I saw that KY lets you submit any of those 3 tests, for whichever gets you the most points.ā 
The PSAT and ACT arenāt really comparable. I got a 34 also on the ACT and a 210 on the PSAT (36-33-34-34). I took a couple practice tests before each. 10 points were given for my 210 PSAT score in the first two rounds, but I think that it could only be worth 9 in the final round if they updated the chart. I just hope that 211 marks 99th percentile and not the cutoff for NM in Kentucky. @OHToCollege
@destined4harvard, you are honest in āit could only be worth 9 in the final round if they updated the chartā
Your 210 is very safe with KY historical cut off, IMO
@Pickmen, for some unexplained reasons, from KY GSP I believe
214ā¦99+
213ā¦99
212ā¦99
211ā¦99----> mid point of 99???
210ā¦99
209ā¦99
IDK
@dallaspiano A lot of people are predicting high numbers for KY, so thatās why Iāve been so nervous. I originally was expecting the cutoff score in Kentucky to 207-210.
@destined4harvard - I feel like most of the analysis has focused on high-cutoff states, in particular CA and TX. So when compassprep predicts a 213 for KY, Iām not sure they really have much data there.
Looking at the previous 210 cutoff in KY, that was just about in the middle of the 98th percentile. If you assume those KY charts from ky.gov are āaccurateā (i.e. that the 98th % is 205 - 210), then it would be reasonable to predict say 208 as the cutoff for KY. (Despite the 213 predicted by compassprep.)
But who really knows (which unfortunately should be a signature added to pretty much every single post in this thread)ā¦
34 ACT could equal 215 PSAT. My son has 35 ACT and 217 PSAT so it certainly seems possible.
Without the state summary reports or more GCs releasing data , the new KY data is something to dissect best we can but as @thshadow says, āwho really knowsā. For now at least, I think the estimated ranges of a CompassPrep afor cut offs are the āsafestā for now - no idea what those are actually based upon but they did provide some explanation of their ability to do some confirming checking. It is pretty shameful that CB is using not actual test taker data in their SI percentile tables - what they are publishing is just so misleading. Wonder what the new SAT test takers will be reporting in March - should be interesting to see.
Because of the āsawtoothā pattern that will likely emerge in the PSAT scores, Iām hoping there will be a NMSF figure of 16,950+ (but less than 17,000) rather than just 16,000 or 16,100. That will allow the NM board some flexibility to deal with the sawtooth pattern. Those additional slots might reduce the cutoff figures a bit, perhaps by a point or two. See message #3276 to see how this could possibly impact statesā NMSF cutoff scores.
Could someone with statistical legerdemain come up with a chart of cutoffs by state, showing 16,000 versus 16,950? Would that 950 extra slots really make that much of a difference??
The compass are as good as any however it is still flawed. Ultimately we need the state data to be able to determine what the numbers will really be. Some of the projected scores look really high to me just based on historical input. Im in NC and I figure the number will be between 210-215 just depends.
My S got 35 ACT (September) and 220 PSAT. His friends also have similar scores 34-35 ACT, 217-220 PSAT.
Some believe CA cut off will be 220-221.
This is the list CA NMSF for graduating class 2016
http://www.mercurynews.com/education/ci_28780350/list-california-national-merit-scholar-semifinalists-2015-2016
Lost count, probably 2120+
Using http://homepage.stat.uiowa.edu/~mbognar/applets/normal.html
and with 2015 PSAT data (Mean 148, SD 26) and 1,724,416 test takers
At SI 220, for 2017 graduating class
We will have a total of 4845+ NMSFs for the whole US and CA has a share 2120 out of 4845
We will also have a total of 2052+ Perfect Scorers for the whole US and CA has a share at least 888+ perfect scorers
Since you are in California, you can id or hear at least 130 perfect scorers. Then i (or we) can rest in peace with CA 220
Thank you, sir
I
You can figure out roughly how many additional SF slots each state would have if the total number was bumped up by 100, 200, etc. based on pro rata share each state received last year. I have not done that but it seems to me low cutoff states could have the highest possible cutoff change. High cutoff states may well not change at all (and at most would change by 1).
from KY document, in 2016 to get 10 for PSAT you need >=211, in 2015 to get 10 for PSAT you need >= 99% which based on college board table for 2014 PSAT is 213. So new PSAT 211 is equal to last year PSAT 213
Regarding KY GSP, a few considerations to keep in mind:
Regard #3336
Repost #3305
"I (me, dallaspiano) got reply from Danielle Moore (KY GSP)
"Thank you for this information. At the time that information was put together with incomplete information available to us from College Board regarding how PSAT scores were being reported. We have re-reviewed since and new scales are in place. To avoid confusion, they have not been published since all of the applicants are already here at the state level GSP selection process.
Thank you and please do not hesitate to let us know if you have any further questions!"
They noticed the new scale (228) in āWe have re-reviewed since and new scales are in placeā"
Repost #3321
Just to clarify - I was originally going to disagree with your statement. But then I saw that KY lets you submit any of those 3 tests, for whichever gets you the most points. So yes, I understand now why @dallaspiano is making the above statement.
213 in Wisconsin??? Agh Iām scared.
@dallaspiano - Good to see you back on this thread :-). I am guessing 220 cutoff for CA because there is seems to be more kids got 217-218.