As we have seen with Houston data, at 219, an odd numbered SI, my propensity would be to assume cutoff for each state to lean towards odd SI’s as opposed to even SI’s which are easier to obtain. Besides there’s clustering issues. I am just thinking for commended at 209, CB must have struggled with way way too many at 208 and at 210 and they were able to draw the line at 209 without impacting variance at 50K commended students level.
WY and WV can have reasonable assurance that their cutoff will be a 209.
@OHToCollege I think that number (1,724,416 11th graders were tested) includes all the ‘invalid’ juniors who took it. I’d love to know the actual number of “eligible program entrants for NMS” - usually its 1.5 million students, not 1.7 million. There are many juniors that take the test that are not eligible for NMS (internationals, enrolled in high school, etc…)
If I get a second, I will call them and ask.
The way I look at it for OH, for my daughter to be SF, the first SI at 99th percentile better be 214. Because in 2014, OH’s cutoff was 215 which is the third SI at 99th percentile, first one at 99th percentile is 213. Obviously we know of compression of scores going from 240 scale to 228 max SI scale. She is at 215 and if the first SI at 99th percentile happens to be 215, she will likely remain commended. OH could be as high as 217, fingers-crossed on the lower end at 215!. Others from various states should be able to take state cutoff SI’s for 2014 and make their own guesses where that lands on the percentiles chart on pg 3 link below and assume 214/215 as the start of 99th percentile.
https://kleinhs.kleinisd.net/users/0012/docs/14-15_NewsInfo/PSAT_UnderstandingScores2014.pdf
@suzyQ7, NMSC’s 2014 annual report shows there were 1,476,770 juniors whose tests were considered valid (http://www.nationalmerit.org/s/1758/images/gid2/editor_documents/annual_report.pdf). Compare this to 1,595,486 CB’s claim at http://research.collegeboard.org/programs/psat/data/cb-jr. Thus a difference of about 118K students.
@Mom2TwoDDs thanks for the confirm. So with 3 independent posters, I guess it’s 209 commended. Feel bad for all the 208s, even if commended doesn’t have scholarship $, some schools like my D’s, still give it recognition. Looks like this test was way too easy for top 2-3% of testers, at least in the sense of how much an SI could go down for just getting 1 or 2 wrong. A bit off topic, but anyone out there whose kids took the March SAT, what did they think about it? My D thought the reading was easy but the non-calculator section of the math quite tough. Said she ran out of time.
Here’s what I’m thinking…not super scientific:
209-211 @ 97%ile, 212-214 @ 98%ile, 215-220 @ 99%ile, 221-228 @ 99+%ile
@Pickmen Mine found it very similar to the PSAT in terms of difficulty.
@OHToCollege NMSC’s 2014 annual report is about 2012 test takers where as the CB document is about 2014 test takers.
From the annual report you linked to:
2014 National Merit® Scholarship Program
Program recognition
In ** October 2012**, about 1.5 million students took the psat/nmsqt and met participation requirements to enter the 2014 National Merit Scholarship Program. Some 50,000 students earned psat/nmsqt scores that qualified them for recognition. In the fall of 2013, these high scorers were notified that they would be designated as either Commended Students or Semifinalists.
From the website you linked to:
** In the fall of 2014**, students took the PSAT/NMSQT to help determine their level of readiness for college.
Highlights of 2014 Junior Data
•1,595,486 juniors took the PSAT/NMSQT
I think you are comparing 2 different contests. @OHToCollege
asked art at compass prep if he thought florida might go as high as 220si and he said definitely no way.
Sorry I haven’t checked this for awhile. What will a 220 IL get me?
I just called NMS - there were approximately 1.6 million VALID juniors who took the PSAT and were part of the calculation for the 209 commended score. She said in total, approx. 4 million freshman, sophomores, and juniors took the test.
They are still busy working on wrapping up the 2016 program and won’t even start looking at SI calculations until summer.
@OHToCollege The top 3% of 1.6 million = 50,000 contestants that moved forward with a an SI of 209 or higher. The I think this means the SI of 209 is the 97th percentile, but statistics are not my forte.
I just called the NMSC to ask whether the qualifying score for the old SAT would be the same as in past years (1960) and the lady I spoke to was very non-committal. She did confirm that the old test taken within the last two years could be used (Fall 2014 and on I believe), but they were going to work with the college board to determine whether there will be two separate score for the old and new test or whether they will come up with one score that will be used for both tests. That number won’t be released until Sept. 2016. Now I have a reason to have S17 actually study for the June SAT test!
@suzyQ7 I asked the NMSC person I talked to if the 209 commended is their top 3% score? Her answer “yes”
@SLparent Do you think 209 is first score at 97% (so 209-211 s 97% as posted above?
@itsgettingreal17 – about you estimate – 215-220 @ 99%ile,
Is this based on some info or a guestimate?
thanks!
@CA1543 It’s a guesstimate based on looking at the percentile breakdown for the 2014 PSAT.
So with such a big jump for the Commended cut off do the scores imply the new SAT is easier? If so, for students applying for Fall 2017 and colleges taking both the old SAT and the new SAT for admission purposes doesn’t that introduce a big disparity in the application process for this group of applicants?
I think it means that the test is easier for the bright 3% of the students. What we have here is a fat-tailed distribution you wouldn’t typically see with earlier tests. In the middle, one would still expect a normally distributed curve, but at higher end of the SI curve (as we have seen with the Houston data), one can expect to have lot of students.The spread of 202-240 in 2014 is far too wide compared with 209-228 in 2015.
Sorry but I did not understand the commended score of 209. My daughter for a 1350 out of 1520 on the October PSAT. She is in the class of 2017 so does that mean she does not qualify for national merit semi finalist