@zeeke007 – ok – I see these tables but have not seen (or have forgotten about?) an SI concordance graph by the CB
https://collegereadiness.collegeboard.org/pdf/psat-nmsqt-preliminary-concordance-tables-2015.pdf
@CA1543 Neither have I.
At the bottom of the current concordance tables, College Board states that final concordance tables will be released in May 2016. Then, we’ll finally be able to put the pieces together and deduce NMSF scores.
My mistake, it’s the TestMaster’s graph of the concordance data.
For someone new to this,it’s a joy to have people here who can crunch the numbers and piece the puzzle together.Kudos!
OK dudes follow me here:
Last year’s commended of about 202 concords (using the preliminary concordance tables) to about a 1380 current composite score. 1380 can mean an SI of anywhere between 200 and 214 with a median of 207-208. So 209 is a tad high but really in the ballpark.
Looked at another way, a 209 can mean a composite score that’s as low as 1330 (96th percentile of the 11th grade User group) to a 1420 (99th percentile). The mid point is about a - guess what: 1380 (high 98th). So it’s again a tad high because the top 50,000 of 1.7. million test takers is about 3%, rather than 2%.
We need to remember that the preliminary concordance tables are PRELIMINARY. However, they seem to indicate conclusions that, if the 209 is accurate, pan out in actuality.
Early this year the discussion divided into two main camps: the “Concordance” camp and the “SI Table” camp. The concordance conclusions were tentatively supported by some of the anecdotal data we were hearing from certain areas in GA, IL and then TX (Toastmasters and National Hispanic Program). Now we have a real HUGE piece of anecdotal data: The commended cut-off. If accurate, it puts to bed the discussion of which tables render better predictions of the state cut-offs.
@mamelot-do you conclude then that mnsf cutoffs are going up decidedly or that they will remain fairly stable and comparable to last years.Not giving specific state cutoffs,but do you think they will increase drastically?
I ask because from what I am hearing,probably wrongly,but it is confusing to us newbies,or at least me,is that the compass cutoff projections and testmasters are pretty correct.
@snicks1234 I would look at Testmasters and Compass. They have incorporated the concordance tables and other reasonable factors into their predictions. Check out the Testmasters Texas prediction as well (sorry I don’t have a link for you but google it and you should get a hit).
Hopefully these will be tweaked once the commended number is confirmed to be accurate.
Don’t look at the page 11 SI table (from the CB Understanding your Scores document) as that is NOT accurate.
Compass has the clearest/best explanation of all this
thanks @mamelot – I agree - ignore pg 11 - from CB report. Test Prep companies might refine their projects a bit or conform what they have said.
Do we have another confirmation about the 209 cutoff or an official report? Not that I doubt it, just good to be sure. I think some posters mentioned that the cutoffs are more likely to fall on odd numbers (I think b/c of the .5 point allocations on the math section), so I guess that makes sense along with concordance. So we have a 7 point rise from the bottom (compared to previous year) and possibly a 2-3 point drop from the top. Very tight spread.
@pickman, two poster called NMSC yesterday (posts 3702 and 3652) and confirmed the cutoff score is 209.
@Pickmen I just called NMSC and was told I have to speak with someone in the Scholarship Administration Dept and they are all in a meeting. I left a message and will post the result here.
Edited: CONFIRMED as 209!!
I agree that it’s a very tight spread. Still find it frustrating with max score going down 12 that commended went up by 7. Not what I originally expected, especially based on Page 11 of “2015-psat-nmsqt-understanding-scores” document. I know it’s been shown, over and over, to be incorrect but I feel for all those families who are basing hopes based on that.
209 SI is the first SI at 97th percentile, with appx 50K out of 1.7M test takers. What this means is that the anecdotal 211 SI for KY scholars (GSP) program as the first 99th percentile is likely wrong. There is no way 209 gets paired with all of the 97th and 210 at 98th percentiles. My guess, first 99th percentile at 214-215.
I would love to see someone more mathematically inclined than myself take a shot at the SI percentile breakdown beginning with 209.
@OHToCollege Do we have an official number of eligible junior test takers from CB? If it is really 1.7million, then you are correct:
(1.7million * top 3%) = ~51,000 finalists at the top 97%. But remember, they changed the way the percentiles are calculated. I forgot the details, but the compass article explains it. Not sure if that changes anything.
Where is the @DoyleB and @theshadow and the other statisticians here?
MN is typically low 99th - a couple of cut-offs above the very bottom. So, @OHtoCollege, a 99th starting at about 214-215 would put MN at about 217 this year which, incidentally, is on the high end of what Compass predicted. Given that Al is probably shifting everything up a notch or two now, MN is probably going to come in at 216-217 (rather than 215 as he originally predicted) - meaning that your guess of 215 sounds about right. FWIW.
From Cobb files, 1,724,416 11th graders were tested. CB’s pg 11 requires two SI’s each for the 97th percentile, so presumably 209 and 210 at 97th, followed by 3 SI’s at 98th percentile. Thus, 211, 212, 213 at 98th percentile. Thus, my somewhat optimistic assessment of >=214 at 99th percentile. Possibly 215.