http://collegeadmissions.testmasters.com/national-merit-commended-score-2016/
@StarboardLeeward usually by now CB would have released state summary reports for the 2015 PSAT. You can access 2014âs data by going here: http://research.collegeboard.org/programs/psat/data/cb-jr
I understand that 2015 reports will be issued much closer to the NMSF announcement date (so Aug/Sept.).
Iâm a bit perplexed why Testmasters is stating that their commended prediction was accurate when I see they predicted a 202. Also, they have a prediction for CT of 215. Thatâs down 5 from the 220 cutoff last year. It seems like too much of a drop, especially when compared to NY which they have dropping to a 217 from a 219. It doesnât seem very consistent to me.
@nocturne21 - I think you are looking at the incorrect column on testmasterâs projections. The first column is âOld PSAT cutoffâ - meaning that was last yearâs cutoff. The projected cutoff is in the last column, where they projected 200-210. The actual commended 209 seems to have fallen on the higher end of their projections. That is what they have tried to explain in their post (as shown in post #3800). In sum, I guess testmasterâs commended projection was as accurate as one can predict (209 out of 200-210)!
@MedSciBud, thanks and I stand corrected on the commended score. I would still like to know why they are dropping CT down to a 215. It seems like an error.
Yeah the Testmastersâ prediction of 200-210 is does not make sense, when states such as WY and WV were predicted to be 210. Historically thatâs not been the case, and Testmasters of all the people needs to know that. Do they not look at NMSC annual reports? It clearly shows WY and WV have 0 or 1 commended students, thus the list of commended students is designed to run at least up until all the students from low performing states have been accounted for, and a flexible target of 50K students is reached. At the low end of their 200 (200-210) SI for commended, this would likely result in many many more students than the general target of 50K. I believe commended level must run up until the SF for the lowest performing state are accounted for, and then if thereâs still room left to get to 50K students, range of SIâs must be further lowered to fetch more students into the commended list.
Predicting the commended cut-off to fall between 200 and 210 is really not much of a prediction. Anyone could have concluded that the number would fall somewhere in that range with 100% certainty.
If Iâm reading the Testmastersâ latest post correctly, theyâre warning students in low scoring states not to get too confident theyâll be SFs if their SIs are 209s. Itâs a little vague what theyâre saying b/c it could be read that they could be SFs if their scores are below 209 but again I do not think this is possible (to be an SF below the national commended). Rather, I think what Testmasters is saying is that some of those low scoring states may have SF cutoffs at 210 or 211.
Thatâs how I read it too @Pickmen.
well,with the compression everyone has spoken about,the take I come away with,is that lower states are coming up,middle states up but not much,and perhaps the upper states down a smidge.Is that correct?
Donât panic if you donât hear something officially this week as far as the commendation cuts. The NMS corporation uses cheap bulk mailings, and what we expect to come in 2-3 days as first class takes more like 7-10. So something sent this week will not likely arrive until late next week at the earliest. Homeschooling families should get the same letters the schools get, so you can probably wait to start bugging your schools until someone actually receives a homeschooling version.
I think Testmasters is being sloppy here. If they were referring just to the lower range states they should have made that clear. Several mid-range states look a bit low. Their data on the Houston Public Schools in Feb. showed that their concordance analysis underestimated that state by 2 points. Why is that not mentioned now? Itâs actually a significant piece of information and based on real results.
I agree that predicting with a 10 point range and then claiming that your prediction was accurate makes no sense. The fact that the cutoff increased significantly (7.5% higher than last year) when the max score reduced (5% lower) itself is hard to digest. Going by historical fluctuations, one would have expected this year to be lower than last yearâs. Oh Well!
Though this question does not really fit into this thread, I am asking it here anyways. What is the weight of being a SF in the Ivy acceptance process?
@MedSciBud _ zero weightage for Ivys. By the admissions time most competitive applicants have stellar SAT/ACT, SAT II scores. Lot of Ivy admits I know didnât qualify as SF since they didnât give importance to PSAT or NMSF.
I think that College Board may have intentionally designed the new PSAT to produce SI cutoff scores that were closer together so that the feeling of unfairness people have about very low cutoffs in some states vs. very high cutoffs in others would be lessened somewhat.
Not that Iâm an expert,but I have also read where a lot of semifinalists did get into Ivy schools.So that some didnât doesnât say anything more than that some do,some donât.It doesnât say that it does or doesnât give it any weight at all.I would think that some of those SF that did get in may have been a little weaker in one area of their application and that being an sf swayed the admissions officials decision.That is just as possible.So,you never know.It is quite an award to be in the top 16,000 test takers out of 1.7 million.Thats certainly not nothing,so surely I would think it carries some weight.I would definitely add it to the application.
Makes me think there is tighter compression between 209-221 for cutoffs. We need the concordance number crunchers to weigh in.
Thank you @srk2017. Now I donât need to stress about not making SF.
What NM status does is bump you into a higher pool of candidates being considered at all schools - tippy top and lower. But itâs by no means a ticket to the Ivyâs and equivalent. Sure, it might increase your chances from 10% (overall) to something higher. But in many cases we are still talking well under 50%. So you will still have to spread your nets wide and consider your reaches, matches and safeties. Iâve known a few NMâs with perfect standardized tests and straight A averages who didnât get into their dream school of Harvard or MIT or Cal Tech or Stanford. It happens all the time because itâs such a crap shoot at the top level. Also none of those schools give scholarship money for NMâs (because they get so many who matriculate). In fact, of the top 20 universities (using USNews ranking) only a very few give any money to NMâs and itâs usually just a couple thou. (UChicago is the most reasonable and consequently has a very high number of NMâs. UND, on the other hand, brags that ALL itâs enrollees are good enough for NM whether they were designated or not. Given that it draws heavily from very high cut-off states, it has a point. Therefore, if you attend there you get nothinâ and like it).
What NM status can do for you if you are willing to consider a lower (sometimes slightly lower!) tier is provide you with considerable scholarship money and most likely a guarantee of admission. If you have your heart set on one or some of those schools, it can make your entire application experience completely stress free and pleasant. And help you get your decision wrapped up early.
Yeah,when the acceptance rate is at 5-10% youâre chances arenât large to start with.I would think all the top twenty schools are not in need of a carrot like maybe Alabama is to draw the high achieving students.Alabama does give wonderful scholarships for SF and NMF.