I think for ivies and other top schools NM is not that big a deal. Or to put it another way, if you are NM but your SATs are not stellar (say under 2100), that’s a problem (although such cases I think would be rare). Basically, top schools are only interested in SAT/ACT scores and even then, I’m not really sure how important they are to them. I think they just get you past the door and then all the other stuff comes into play: grades, ECs, recs, sports, legacy etc. While being NM is great for the brag sheet, I doubt it carries as much weight as AP Scholar awards, which practically every kid applying to a top school will have. But for schools that want NM winners and will pay full freight for them, it can mean everything for their families.
In terms of acceptance, I think it depends on the school. Something like 10 years ago U. of Chicago had about 80 National Merit Scholars attending. In the most recent NMSC Annual Report U of Chicago had almost 300. Clearly someone at Chicago decided they needed to be more generous toward National Merit folks. Since NMSC publishes a list every year of where NM Scholars actually attend school, it becomes another data point in the selectivity race. It will matter for some schools.
University of Chicago has become more selective in the last 10 years, the average ACT and SAT test scores show this. Kids that score high on the standardized tests generally do well on the PSAT. I don’t think NMS is driving U Chicago NMS numbers, just that the school is organically more competitive because their NMS max is $4000. Was this higher in the past?
That is not the case for U of Alabama, Northeastern, BU etc, who’s very very generous full or partial tuition awards for NMS and standard (no supplement) apps are driving thousands of semi finalists to apply. And alot of them end up attending because of the excellent tuition savings.
Colleges that want to attract really smart kids, from all over the country, should use NMS to offer large tuition scholarships. It works.
@candjdad UChicago is very high on my D3’s list precisely as a result of that (it’s a good fit for her as well). They might have the highest number of NMSF’s (certainly one of the highest) of the tippy tops. I think they guarantee up to $4,000 in renewable scholarship money to every finalist who matriculates and if you don’t get a scholarship from NMSC or an outside corporation then UChicago kicks in the full amount. They might be unique among the top 20 (certainly among the top 10) in this level of interest in and generosity towards NM’s.
I’m surprised that $4000 makes that much of a difference. There are so many schools in the top 50 whose annual tuition and r/b totals differ by more than that, but I doubt that drives applications. For example, I don’t think kids are going to not apply to BU because the tuition is $67K vs Syracuse at $63 (hypothetical numbers).
I guess at the end of the day, if you are accepted to U Chicago and the total tuition is several thousand less than peers, it may tilt you to choose them. Smart strategy on CHicago’s part in keeping this program going.
@suzyq7 I think what might be happening is that UChicago is trying to lure kids away from other top 20 schools. What UChicago offers, from what we can gather from research and visits, is not only the $4,000 guaranteed to NM’s but also 100% of demonstrated need guaranteed all four years. It’s a zero-loan school. For my family - three in college for three years - that’s an attractive feature! But it has to be a good fit. UChicago is known to be the place “where fun goes to die” (when I was there in the late 80’s the law school had a slogan: “Hell DOES freeze over”). More objectively, the freshman foundation year is heavy-duty humanities and classics. They don’t have an engineering school so it’s really more like a top liberal arts program in a smaller national university setting. So it’s not going to be for everyone.
One of the reasons I think for top tiers NM may not be that significant is that, strictly speaking, being an NM S/F does not mean your score was within the top 15/16k out of 1.6 mill. testers. It all depends where you live. Your score could have been amongst the top 45k of testers and if you live in WVA you’re an SF. There’s a big difference between being NM from CA. vs. NM from Idaho. Of course, this doesn’t mean some kids from WVA or Idaho might have scored 99%+ but the spread in these states is much larger and colleges know this. The irony, though, is any kid who is NM in say N Dakota who has great grades will probably have a better shot at a top tier than an NM from NJ b/c colleges will weigh geographic diversity much more than NM IMHO.
I agree, @Pickman and I think that’s why some schools that draw heavily from, say, NJ or MA or CA, just to name three examples, don’t necessarily reward NM’s. They get a LOT of qualified applicants with similar test scores who aren’t NM because, for instance, they just missed the cut-off.
Actually, 16,000 is not even that high a number of kids and tippy tops will need to look beyond that pool in order to fill their freshman class. And when you consider that many of those 16,000 aren’t even looking at the top 20 because they can get a free ride elsewhere, that obviously makes it harder to stack your deck with NM’s. I think what explains the high number at UChicago is fit as well as money. Some (like my kid) are just going to be attracted to that atmosphere, others are going to want something a bit more “well rounded”. There are so many choices out there - something for everyone.
Hey @Mamelot U of Chicago does have Engineering now - Molecular Engineering only though.
@Mamelot my sentiments exactly. While I think it’s much harder today to get into any INDIVIDUAL top tier college say compared to 20 or 30 yrs ago, I think overall it’s much easier than it was in the past to get into A top tier school if you are willing to cast a very wide net and your scores are in the top 3 or 4% and grades are mostly As with lots of honors and APs. The fact is top 3% scorers comes out to 50k kids, reduce this 20k for kids whose grades are not stellar and/or who are not looking for top tier schools and you are talking about 30k kids. When you add up all the Ivies, Duke, UChicago, Hopkins, Stanford, Rice, Emory, Vanderbilt, WashU, CA schools, Georgetown, etc. plus all the good LACs and state flagships, the chances of getting into one of these schools is very good and all of them will provide a first rate education.
@Pickmen - Agree. Until my son took the PSAT and got a score that puts him in play for NMSF (probably on the hairy edge), I had no idea how much it varied between states. Comparing to ACT, it looks like cutoffs can be anywhere from about 31 and up, depending on the state. ACT of 31 is not going to turn heads at top schools, so I would not expect a designation based solely on the equivalent of that score to garner a lot of attention, either.
As for NMF, it sounds like the hard part is getting to NMSF. After that, you need a decent SAT score that won’t even register with top schools, and some other things that are already part of the application process (good grades, an essay, a recommendation).
@snicks1234 heard that NMSFs get accepted to Ivies. I’m sure they get plenty of them whether the schools care or not. But a NMSF from a lower state who gets a 31-32 (and even higher) on the ACT won’t get a second look from an Ivy. Everything that the school wants from an applicant will be demonstrated in the application process without the NM credentials.
The more I read about NM, the more it seems like an ego stroke for parents and a lot of plum jobs at the NM organization rather than a “best of the best.” I can see why more and more better schools are not sponsoring NMFs. It seems like, depending on the school, a lot of money can be riding on a single test that is intended as practice for the SAT. And many NMSFs from lower states have lesser credentials than non-NMSFs from higher states.
That being said, I hope that my son makes it because I would like the ego stroke and would like him to get some of that merit aid 
If we had known what might be at stake and how close he is, we would have had him prep for the test rather than go in cold.
I agree @Pickmen. I’m very relieved that my kids don’t need to get into a “dream school” and are flexible and realistic. If you realize the “crap shoot” process of the top tier you stand a much improved chance of being admitted to one of them and yes - they are all first rate!
@Dolemite I did NOT know that! This is awesome news! I just looked it up and the Bachelor’s program is brand new this year. Seems like a smart offering for them. Thanks for the tip!
yes,my S hates being bragged on.Feels no pressure,tests like a hero,grades at 3.9,8 Ap classes so far,220si,thinks he may have aced the Sat,and still he is not passionate about what college he attends or what his major may be.I know when he finds his interest of study he will find his passion,but meanwhile,I guess I have to be passionate for him.my thought through this whole Psat process was,it can’t hurt to do well.We would love to see him go to a school matching his hard work and accomplishments,but 4,000 dollars isnt a lot of money at the high dollar schools.
I didn’t do that well under the OLD SAT, did pretty OK in ACT; but did well enough to have a good chance at NMSF in CA. NMSF is not that important to me because I just want to go to UCLA or UC Berkeley (if I get in); but who knows, maybe it will help me in getting a Regents Scholarship from them. I am not even going to take the NEW SAT even if CB says I need to take a new SAT to qualify as a NM Finalist. To me, there is no real difference between NMSF and NM Finalist except shuffling some papers. One way NMSF status helps me is if I apply to USC because USC waives 50% of its tuition for NMSFs, I think. Not sure.
USC is a great school.
interested in anyone doing possible new stats for states since we have a commended. I dreamed about it last night. lol
But I am starting to agree with the senior members here the more I learn from them that the tip top schools dont do a lot for nmf or need based scholarships.With such small acceptance percentages,after those that pay their own way totally,legacies,etc. that doesn’t leave a lot of room for need based students.Maybe they do just enough to say they participate,but history doesn’t show that they are aggressively seeking those type of students.
@websensation, if you are truly interested in USC then check their offer because I think it only applies to NMF, not NMSF.
About 90% of SF’s advance to finalist stage. I think you need to be finalist for all NM-related scholarship consideration but I’m not not positive about that. In any case, it’s not very much of a hurdle at all and certainly far less than getting to SF stage in the first place.
@mtrosemom is right, USC will only give 1/2 tuition scholarhip to NMF, not NMSF.