@StarboardLeeward - yes there is quite a big score spread in NMs between states. The range you have is probably right (31/32-35/36 ACT - 2100-2300/2400 SAT). This creates a lot of grumbling, especially in the higher scoring states. That said, while NM is a great accomplishment, unless the school is actively recruiting NMs, I don’t think it’s a game-changer in terms of deciding admission to top tier schools, especially HYPS. Anecdotally, I know of cases of kids who had 2300+ scores, were NMs, excellent grades, had sibs in those schools and did not get in. The problem is there are just too many kids with perfect scores and grades who play concert level piano or violin going for those 4 spaces. Once you get away from those 4, as I mentioned before, there are lots of top-tier schools to choose from where the odds are really in the applicant’s favor assuming scores are 31 ACT/2100 SAT + and grades are excellent. Of course this does not apply to URMs, legacies, sports recruits who will I think consume about 25% of the available spots.
For what it’s worth, I predicted a Commended cutoff score of 207 or 208 more than a month ago based on the faulty SI chart provided by the College Board. It was my theory that the distributions in the chart were correct, save that the sample used to create it had few or no highly prepared “preppers.” So a score of 209 isn’t too far off the mark.
Earlier in this thread there was some information that the state of Kentucky had been told that a score of 211 was the first score in the 99th percentile. I don’t consider it out of the realm of possibility that a 209 represents the 97th percentile, a 210 the 98th percentile, and a 211 the 99th percentile. The scores are incredibly clumpy in this area before becoming granular in the 99th percentile.
Just something to think about. Time will tell.
Tx for responses. I guess if I do happen to make NMSF in CA, I will go for NMF. Anyway, I predicted SI score of 220 or 221 for long time ago for CA.
As some of you know, I was always trying to find evidence that would support low cutoffs. Just to make my biases clear and explicit… 
Eventually, I was reluctantly convinced by testmaster’s (and others) data. It seemed like PSAT scores would probably be about equivalent to the same score from previous years. But I still didn’t believe that the commended score would go up so much. That just seemed crazy to me. In fact I think it seemed crazy to testmaster too, which is why they gave the range of 200 (what probably seemed “reasonable” to them) to 210 (what their data seemed to suggest). Anyway, I’m definitely surprised it has gone up by so much.
People seem to be interested in new predictions. Not that my predictions are really worth anything, but here is my updated version. As we all know, the concordance tables correspond to ranges of SI scores. In my previous prediction, I used the most optimistic end of the range. It turns out that if I use the most pessimistic end of the range, I get the new 209 concording to the old 202 (the old commended cutoff).
So, here is the full table, in case it is interesting to anyone:
(New) SI 200 concords to between 190 (34R/31W/35.0M) and 200 (31R/38W/31.0M), avg 195.1
(New) SI 202 concords to between 193 (34R/31W/36.0M) and 203 (38R/33W/30.0M), avg 197.6
(New) SI 204 concords to between 196 (33R/34W/35.0M) and 205 (38R/33W/31.0M), avg 200.0
(New) SI 206 concords to between 198 (34R/34W/35.0M) and 208 (38R/35W/30.0M), avg 202.5
(New) SI 208 concords to between 201 (33R/36W/35.0M) and 210 (36R/38W/30.0M), avg 205.2
(New) SI 210 concords to between 203 (34R/36W/35.0M) and 214 (37R/38W/30.0M), avg 207.8
(New) SI 212 concords to between 206 (34R/36W/36.0M) and 218 (38R/38W/30.0M), avg 210.4
(New) SI 214 concords to between 209 (34R/36W/37.0M) and 220 (38R/38W/31.0M), avg 213.0
(New) SI 216 concords to between 212 (35R/36W/37.0M) and 222 (38R/38W/32.0M), avg 215.6
(New) SI 218 concords to between 216 (35R/36W/38.0M) and 224 (38R/38W/33.0M), avg 218.4
(New) SI 220 concords to between 220 (35R/37W/38.0M) and 225 (38R/38W/34.0M), avg 221.3
(New) SI 222 concords to between 224 (35R/38W/38.0M) and 226 (38R/35W/38.0M), avg 224.6
(New) SI 224 concords to between 228 (36R/38W/38.0M) and 229 (38R/38W/36.0M), avg 228.2
(New) SI 226 concords to between 232 (37R/38W/38.0M) and 232 (37R/38W/38.0M), avg 232.0
(New) SI 228 concords to between 236 (38R/38W/38.0M) and 236 (38R/38W/38.0M), avg 236.0
New cutoffs:
214 (was 209) for Alabama
212 (was 206) for Alaska
218 (was 215) for Arizona
222 (was 223) for California
218 (was 215) for Colorado
223 (was 225) for DC
218 (was 216) for Delaware
217 (was 214) for Florida
219 (was 218) for Georgia
217 (was 214) for Hawaii
214 (was 208) for Idaho
218 (was 215) for Illinois
217 (was 213) for Indiana
214 (was 208) for Iowa
217 (was 213) for Kansas
215 (was 210) for Kentucky
216 (was 211) for Louisiana
216 (was 211) for Maine
221 (was 222) for Maryland
222 (was 223) for Massachusetts
215 (was 210) for Michigan
217 (was 214) for Minnesota
214 (was 209) for Mississippi
214 (was 209) for Missouri
211 (was 204) for Montana
214 (was 209) for Nebraska
216 (was 211) for Nevada
217 (was 213) for New Hampshire
223 (was 225) for New Jersey
214 (was 208) for New Mexico
220 (was 219) for New York
218 (was 215) for North Carolina
209 (was 202) for North Dakota
218 (was 215) for Ohio
214 (was 208) for Oklahoma
218 (was 215) for Oregon
219 (was 217) for Pennsylvania
216 (was 212) for Rhode Island
216 (was 211) for South Carolina
209 (was 202) for South Dakota
216 (was 212) for Tennessee
220 (was 220) for Texas
212 (was 206) for Utah
217 (was 214) for Vermont
221 (was 222) for Virginia
220 (was 219) for Washington
209 (was 202) for West Virginia
214 (was 208) for Wisconsin
209 (was 202) for Wyoming
I’m homeschooled and just got the letter basically saying that I’m at least commended.
@st8homom can I ask what state you’re in and what your SI score was?
@theshadow … very pessimistic predictions. I hope you are wrong.
Glad you are back @theshadow & thanks for sharing your thoughts and the info in the chart - helpful to have a sense of the ranges of new SIs to old. Hope your predictions turnout to be above actual cutoffs in many cases!! The results though on the PSAT and the high commended score is a surprise & may mean the cut offs end up even higher than Testmasters predicted.
I hope I’m wrong too! 
And really all I’ve done is manipulated the various numbers CB has released to get SI → SI concordance tables. I have no evidence that my technique is correct - and TBH if it is correct, it will be partly based on luck.
@thshadow, those results for IL and GA match the anecdotal data. TX is in the ballpark as Testmasters had predicted 219 based on the Houston data, MN looks right because it has tracked IL by -1. 209 definitely concords to 202 (old test) so thank you for filling in the blanks by running this for all the states. Your analysis confirms my suspicion that Testmasters is low for many of these states. It’ll be interesting to see what Art over at Compass comes up with. His post said he’d try to re-run the numbers next week.
I’ve been here and reading off and on - but if any of you remember, my D has a 217 in CA, so I’m now only here to help others… 
And graduate school looks at performance in undergraduate studies,so even if you dont do first four years in harvard,always a chance at a top tier graduate school later.Had a friend whos son went to U of Pitt,then S.E. Nova law school for a year for graduate school,then transferred to Georgetown law.Hobnobbin’ with senators and etc.So kids,don’t give up on your dream.
What’s interesting is that Testmasters claimed to have used the concordance tables and got lower results in many cases than did @thshadow. Of course everyone tweaks as they deem appropriate and there should be ranges around these numbers, as Art has pointed out. Perhaps Testmasters chose to report the “optimistic” side of their results and if so that is a good contrast to @thshadow’s “pessimistic” analysis. So there is your range 
@3scoutsmom, I’m in KY and my SI is 215. [-O<
@st8homom congrats to you and your child.
@snicks1234, Thank you!
maybe someone will get an info slippage from Nmsc about certain state cutoffs.If they are even addressing that yet.Probably working on SAT results first.
@thshadow 3850. I hear ya. In the same boat. My D won’t be SF but this was clear to us a while back. I saw your updated chart was missing CT. Do you have an guess on that cutoff. I’m thinking 219.
NMSC doesn’t deal with SAT except to verify the PSAT scores for finalist status - and hopefully they’ve completed that by now for class of 2016. While it was kind of them to disclose the Commended # rather than leave everyone hanging for several more days (or weeks) somehow the thought of those guys hanging by the phone to disclose individual state cut-offs in Sept. seems a tad unlikely. Of course, someone can always try to call and find out! CC parents define Tenacity!
Most likely we’ll need to piece together the cut-offs from NMSF’s reporting in to CC.
Thx Shadow. Your prediction for DC is 223. My DS has a 223. Is the cutoff that number and above or just above?