@thshadow not sure where you got cutoff scores for last year. We have a 2015 NMS who scored at 213 in the state of Florida…so… I believe the cutoff last year for our state was 211?
All the sources I have for PSAT cut-offs say 214 for FL class of 2016 . . .
Update: 211 was the cut-off for the class of 2015 (so Oct. 2013 PsAT). 214 for Class of 2016 (Oct. 2014 PSAT).
Florida was 211 for the class of 2015, but 214 for the class of 2016. There has been another year since our 2015 kids have qualified!
(Well @Mamelot beat me, but with an edit, 
!)
@st8homom Congrats to you! Did the letter mention 209 as commended? Did the letter make any reference to NMSF? Thanks.
@Pickmen - Oops, I forgot CT for some reason. I see CT having a cutoff of 220 last year (just like TX), so my table shows it still being a 220 this year.
FYI, I’m using last year cutoffs from here: http://www.fairtest.org/sites/default/files/NationalMeritSemifinalist2016-scores.pdf
I think the high end of your cutoffs (NJ, DC) don’t reflect the compression at the top. A 223 could be only 2-3 wrong on the entire test.
@Ketchup1 - so first of all my “predictions” should be taken with a giant grain of salt. But to answer your question, this is concording a new 223 with the previous year’s SI needed for NMSF in DC. IOW, 223 or above would be NMSF. All of the numbers listed are “at or above” for NMSF.
@suzyQ7 I think you can miss more than two or three and still get a 223 can’t you? My daughter missed eight total – two on reading, two on writing, and two on each of the math sections – and ended up at 220. Had she missed one additional math and one fewer writing she would have gotten a 221 or higher even with the same number of total missed. A lot depends on where you missed those questions.
My daughter missed 6 and got a 223 - 5 misses on math.
3 wrong in the October 14th form in the ** Writing and Language Section ** = 222
2 wrong in the October 14th form in the ** Writing and Language Section ** = 224
This assumes a perfect score in the other sections. The curve in the writing and language on that form was BRUTAL.
It’s all about where you missed them, as noted by many. It is much better to excel on the CR section than the math.
Its hard to imagine a cutoff that shuts you out of the contest with 3x. I don’t think the cutoff in DC/NJ will be higher than 222.
As an illustration, 3x in last year’s writing and language section (also the most severe section) resulted in an SI score 5 points HIGHER than the 225 cutoff (230).
@SLparent, Thanks! The letter said that I had “met the requirements to enter the 2017 National Merit Scholarship Program. With a Selection Index of 209 or above, these high performers have shown outstanding academic potential. From approximately 1.5 million program entrants, each of these students is among the 50,000 highest-scoring participants who will be recognized in the fall…Semifinalists and Commended Students in the 2017 National Merit Program will learn of their standing in September when we send you notification and ask you to inform your students.”
So it doesn’t really give anything away as far as NMSF is concerned. (Sorry if you already knew a lot of the previous paragraph.)
@st8homom…You got this because you homeschool…correct? So the school will get it for their students…right? i wonder who in the school will get this letter? Principal or counselor? Does the letter name the student? I know a lot of questions however our school has not had a NMSF in 20+ years so I am trying to help them out. Our principal is great and will do whatever he needs too. I just hope that the rest of the staff will also.
@Tgirlfriend, my D15 was a NMSF/NMF and students do not get this letter. Only the school gets it. It is probably addressed to the principal, but some schools give it to the counselor.
@suzyQ7 you could easily be correct that the highest scores will “taper” a bit off the concordance (Probably super hard to concord accurately at the highest scores anyway . … . .) and that will result in a point or two less than indicated in @thshadow’s analysis. When it’s a matter of moving several points with just one or two wrong answers then there is going to be lots of variability.
@st8homom thank you for sharing that letter which is informative for those of us going through the process for the first time!
@Tgirlfriend, yes, we got it because we homeschool. It was addressed to the principal, and it comes with a second page that lists the names of “students who will receive recognition in the 2017 National Merit Scholarship Program in the fall.” In our case, the total was one. 
@Mamelot, you’re welcome! It’s our first time, too; I’m the oldest. 
(My mom made this account, hence the username.)
Shadow – good to see you on this thread again. Thanks for providing these data points.
Two thoughts on the projections:
(1) Based on Testmasters’ data, most of the PSAT cutoff scores will probably be odd numbers. I noticed that there were 30 cutoff projections for even numbers and 20 for odd numbers. I’m guessing that will probably be reversed, due to general clumping of scores on the even numbers. Wouldn’t be surprised to see as high as 35 odd number cutoff scores, due to this clumping that Testmasters reported. (So for example, CA and NJ will be 221 or 223, VA will be 219 or 221, etc.)
(2) I asked Art from Compass whether he thought that since there were over 125,000 more PSAT test takers this year than last year, that the number of NMSFs might be increased from 16,000 to 17 or 18,000. He didn’t think so. If that’s the case (and I agree with Art on this one), then that would tend to favor higher cutoffs.
@VABogart, NMSC has released the instructions for NMSQT 2017. It’s pretty clear that there will be no change in the numbers of SF’s this year (in reality it will be an approximate number but only because it’s hard to nail that 16,000 exactly with 50 + separate cut-offs.)
http://www.nationalmerit.org/s/1758/images/gid2/editor_documents/student_guide.pdf