@snicks1234 It is a long wait.
Part of the calculation for how many NMSFs there are in each state involves knowing how many seniors graduate this spring. I’m not sure how they get that information from the states, because there are private schools and homeschoolers, but somehow over the summer they get numbers that are good enough for their purposes.
@whitespace @Tgirlfriend – congrats!
The likely difference between commended and national merit in my state is 2 writing questions. I guess I’ll take commended, but I don’t like the changes to the PSAT or the way that the College Board has handled results. There are too many kids that are way brighter than some of the kids who scored 214+ that aren’t even going to be commended because of the curves this year (the #1 kid at one school in my state got a 208). I wonder why the NMSC hasn’t considered lowering the qualifying scores and making the finalist round more selective.
This is nothing new. My kids attended a school that typically had less than 2 commended students per year, with several years of no commended students at all! They’ve had VERY few actual semi-finalists. It happens in many schools in many states, and that has always been true. I am curious though where our locals fell this year, given the changes.
There is bound to be a lot of disappointment out there this year.I’m sure that’s true every year,but particularly this year of so much change.But still,what an accomplishment for you.
I would like to remind folks of this post I wrote on January 15:
http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/discussion/comment/19192114/#Comment_19192114
Viewing the October PSAT’s only confirmed this impression.
The Redesigned PSAT/SAT does not distinguish well among students at the top of the curve.
I’m not sure it ever has distinguished those top students. My son had an 800 on the SAT at 11. Getting 80 on the PSAT several years later was no amazing feat. He took a hit for a less than perfect verbal, but the math didn’t even begin to touch his ability level. I was just thrilled he didn’t choke with a stupid mistake. He made one careless error his sophomore year, and it cost him 4 SI points.
Let me rephrase:
The new PSAT/SAT is much worse at distinguishing students at the top of the curve than was the old one, which was already far from perfect.
Ah yes, you are probably right there @Plotinus!
Maybe no test would or could distinguish those at the very top.When youre talking one or two wrong answers,hey tese are kids.Good day/bad day,usually the difference between all those top children.They are ALL so awesome.But for the sake of clarifying it for someone who isn’t having a good day intellectually,me,tell me plotus what you think it means As far as how high it may go.Are you saying there’s an inordinate amount of testakers 220+? Or that that the upper third of that curve you spoke of did better overall this year? I’m easily confused,so I’ll apologize for that ahead of time.
Unless we know the scores from schools which consistently produces NMFs any prediction is a guess.
@snicks1234 haha thank you, although I’m a senior - not a junior in this process. Just posting here in case anyone has any questions.
@whitespace So can you help us with questions on Who gets the letters at the school? At any time did you get letters at your house? What was the time line for stuff? Where are you going to school?
http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/national-merit-scholarships/
@Tgirlfriend There is a whole forum on CC for National Merit. There is even a stickied FAQ in that forum with answers to those questions and more.
Principal gets a letter listing everyone who will be commended and above. Some schools tell the kids, some do not.
My son got commended and just missed semi finalist- nothing ever came to the house. I believe Finalist notifications do come to the house. Semi finalist notification goes to the school. Commended letters come AFTER semi finalists are notified- about two weeks later.
3)Commended and above letter to principal- early April, semifinalist notification- early to mid September, finalist notification February and final decision on first choice school is due in April.
There is a wealth of information on the National Merit forum and I would encourage you to read that.
I have written several other posts about why the new test is worse than the old at distinguishing the students with the most academic ability. I don’t want to hijack the thread by repeating them here.
I’ll just say this. On the old test, there were level 5 difficulty questions. Level 5 difficulty questions were questions that were conceptually challenging and relatively unpredictable. On the new test, it looks to me as though there are very few or even no level 5 difficulty questions. There are questions that require more knowledge (for example, the behavior of polynomial functions), but that remain predictable and even banal for students who have studied the relevant material.
This means that the people who can answer conceptually challenging, level 5 difficulty questions score the same as the people who can’t, assuming the people in the two groups make the same number of careless mistakes.
I couldn’t quantify this effect in terms of scaled scores because the raw to scaled conversion is an artificial construct determined by College Board in whatever way it chooses. However, I predicted back in January (based on the released practice material, before having seen the actual PSAT test questions) that there would have been a significant increase in the number of raw scores within 7 raw points of perfect. This prediction was based on the absence of level 5 difficulty questions from the official practice material, together with the removal of the penalty for wrong answers.
@Plotinus thanks,makes sense.
@Tgirlfriend, my son qualified in 2014 (class of 2015). As a public school kid, we did not get much sent to the house. The “qualification” phase (commended cut) came through the school, and to be honest, we might not even have been told at that stage had I not asked the question. I knew he hit that, so I bugged the staff a bit. The school really only had to verify his standing and spelling of his name.
When SF cuts came out, I knew from CC before the school knew, based on his score and a home school friend with a close score (if she made it, my son made it). Home school letters go straight to the family. The school has to notify the student at that stage, as it gives an online connection to the NMS account. If you know you made it, definitely bug the school in September! Then you have online access and will know when your kid/school submits required paperwork.
I believe the very first actual letter we got in the mail was for the finalist status. (I might be remembering that incorrectly though.)
@Plotinus I’m having difficulty coming to the same conclusion you did using your example from the 2014 PSAT. Please help me out here:
r=7 on the new test is around a 221 or 222. (my d3 has r=8 with a 220, @Dolemite’s D has r=6 with a 223). Of course everything’s predicted for the time being but @thshadow has provided a “pessimistic” analysis that basically shows a 222 will clear every state but NJ and DC.
Contrast to r=7 on the old test (SI 224) which clears every state except for . . . . New Jersey and DC.
Now, r=7 is a lower percentage wrong or missed on the new test: 7/139 = 5% vs 7/125 = 5.6% (The old test had 125 responses total). So yes the new test is “easier” in that sense. You still need to miss 7 or fewer in order to clear most every state but that means getting 14 more answers correct. I guess 14 is a significant number but you are also given more time as well (30 additional minutes). I want to wave my hands and say those two factors cancel each other out.
Obviously the lack of penalty is a factor in raising SI’s. But actually I’m not seeing exactly where that shows up in my example above. What am I missing?
Thanks in advance for clarifying!
@Tgirlfriend Like others have said, lots of people have made some very good posts about their experiences here on CC, and that can be a good resource as you go through the process. I’ll go ahead and answer your questions.
My own thoughts on TX cutoff and cutoffs for CA and DC/NJ is that the Testmasters Update2 is very accurate because they had 10,000 students sample. Initially, they had TX cutoff estimate as 217 but based on the new sample stats, they moved up TX estimate to 219. This means for CA (original estimate 219), it might likely go up to 221 (2 points increase). Therefore, my new prediction for TX, CA and NJ/DC are:
TX: Most likely 219 (will be almost for sure 218, 219 or 220). TX 219 prediction is not mine but based on a convincing research done by Testmasters based on their 10,000 students. It’s hard to argue against 10,000 students sample. I was surprised though that historically, ONLY 60 students out of their 10,000 students become NMSFs; that’s 0.6% of their students.
CA: Most likely 221 (will be almost for sure 220, 221 or 222)
DC/NJ: Most likely 222 (will be almost for sure 221, 222 or 223)
Reference: http://collegeadmissions.testmasters.com/update-psat-scores-cut-national-merit-2016/
Basically, since I am convinced by their updated methodology for TX, estimated cutoffs for higher cutoff states such as CA and DC/NJ have to be based on TX cutoff.
The most persuasive section in their methodology for me was where they stated:
“Using new data from roughly 10,000 Testmasters students and other students who took the PSAT in Texas, we reproduced this process. We know from historic data that of these 10,000 students, approximately 60 will become National Merit Semifinalists. Applying that number to our data, we have revised our estimate of the National Merit Semifinalist cutoff for Texas to be as high as 219.”
From the beginning, I was convinced that the CA cutoff will be AT LEAST 220 based on other students’ scores around me, so I never gave any credence to anyone who said CA cutoff will be around 217.