This year, over 1.7 million juniors took the PSAT (1,724,416 to be exact). Last year, 1.6 million took the test (1,595,486). So you have about 130,000 extra students this year vying for the same 50,000/16,000 slots, which might explain why it may be more competitive this year, this year’s easier test notwithstanding.
@VABogart But only 1.6 million were ELIGIBLE for National Merit Scholarship. I got confirmation from the NMS people, when I called (They said about 1.6 million).
Thanks @suzyQ7, that’s good to hear. I’m afraid, though, that the anticipated state cutoffs do seem to be heading higher. :-S
@suzyQ7 When I called & spoke to the director of scholarship administration (a very reliable source), she also told me that it was about 1.6 million juniors.
Did they mail it to your house or did you get it at school?
These high cutoffs are scaring me. Hopefully a 222 will be enough to make NMSF for IL!
Did anyone see Art’s new predictions? I thought they came out last week. Thought maybe I missed something b/c of all the AP prep and exam weeks! eek
@kikidee9 if they came out I surely missed them. Was checking the Compassprep website too.
Not sure what happened but if anyone has an updated version please post. Thanks!!!
I don’t think IL cutoff will be over 220, 222 should be very safe.
Using CB concordance table, with an assumption that a typical student’s math score is about 2.5 points higher than CR/WR in old PSAT, I calculated the concordance table from new PSAT SI to old PSAT score (.5 means it can go either way):
Based on my calculation, 222 SI is equivalent to 224 in old PSAT, I don’t think IL cutoff can go that high.
New PSAT SI -> Old PSAT Score
228 238
227 235
226 232
225 230
224 228
223 226
222 224
221 222
220 220
219 218
218 216
217 214
216 212.5
215 211
214 210
213 209
212 208
211 206
210 204
209 202.5
208 201
207 200
206 199
205 198
204 197
203 196
202 195.5
201 195
200 194
199 193
198 192
@cys254 thanks for the calculations. Why the big jump from 216 to 217? thanks!
It is 212.5 to 214, 1.5 point jump.
Concordance table is non-linear, between 217 to 226, one point different in new SI equivalent to two points in old score. Below 217, it translates to smaller different in old score.
Wait so is 220 IL no longer “safe”? I think someone answered me before but I’m sill a bit confused.
@smilingalong
IL’s last cutoff is 215, which should translate to 217-218 SI this year. So 220 should be quite safe.
IL is talking about shifting from ACT to SAT, this could increase cutoff by a couple of point. But I don’t think it can be more than 220.
My son was told by his GC today that he made Semi-finalist. We are in PA and his SI is 220.
@Saksam No one has that information yet so either there was some miscommunication or the GC was making an assumption based on the score.
@Saksam It is impossible for his GC to know. The National Merit folks don’t make that decision until late August or early September. Could he have been told he made Commended? His GC could know that. It is also possible that his GC was just making an assumption. But again, it is impossible for anyone to know they are a Semifinalist at this point (unless you scored a 228!).
Our GC misinterpreted the letter last year too. She told my daughter and several other students that they were SF when in fact all they had done was make the commended cut. She called us all the next day to tell us she had misinformed us.
It’s possible he misunderstood what she told him. She did tell him the information came in an email.
Art at compass prep has updated his projections for NMsf. He has adjusted for the 209 commended cutoff. Sorry,can’t copy and paste with my nook so you will have to google it.
He did say that it was more important that you pay attention to the range rather than the set projection. He has Florida at 216, but from all the math I’ve seen in here I think it will be 217.