Thoughts on a 225 for California??
Also, will the old SAT be accepted if you’re a semifinalist or would one have to take the new one?
@sunshine232 – A 225 should be fine in CA - that’s an amazing score. Read up this thread - old SAT - if recent at least will be accepted.
I also heard that the commended cutoff score is 209, and this is from a public school.
Which SAT prep company do you think may be the most accurate in its PSAT cutoff predictions? I’m guessing it’s Compass (over Testmasters, Prepscholar, and others) because Art seems to be the most on top of the latest developments.
Testmasters just affirmed a few days ago that its projected AZ cutoff is 215 while Compass predicts 217. Looks like Testmasters, even in the face of its subsequent Texas data, is sticking to its original cutoff predictions. I’d love to believe the TM and PS predictions because they’re lower, but it seems Compass has the most compelling case for its higher cutoffs. Any thoughts on this?
I have more faith in Art & Compass. Testmasters could have revised more - not sure why they didn’t.
Art’s numbers are more consistent with the anecdotal data and he’s taken the time to update his projections based on the 209 commended number. Some of the adjustments were revised upward only a point or two but of course any upward adjustment is significant given the significant amount both of compression at the top and uncertainty! Regarding the latter, Art also provides a range and advises everyone to focus on that more than the midpoint. His responses are also very helpful, thorough and intelligent. He seems the most interested in providing a reasonable projection based on current information. Betting his model and analysis are a bit more thorough than the other guys’.
FWIW.
@jym626 - When I first heard that 209 was the commended cutoff, I called National Merit directly and asked them. They confirmed this was the official cut off for commended for the class of 2017. Semi-finalists cutoff will be different by state and won’t be released until September. But the commended cutoff is known and is the same for everyone in every state.
I have a 216 SI and live in Texas… I guess I can probably kiss the chance of being a finalist goodbye, looking at all the predictions. Oh well.
Hang on @niclyd95 – feel proud that you are a Commended PSAT student - please understand you live in a rather high score cut-off state. In other states your score would be NMSF. – but in Texas you are right – looks unlikely - I am sorry but please feel proud of what you did accomplish.
Agree, a reason to be very proud. I have twin D17’s who each scored 219, but as they live in NJ they won’t likely move on to NMSF - doesn’t diminish National Merit Commended accomplishment
Been away for a while. Has anyone tried to guess what the confirming score might be for our NMSFs?
- Just missed commended and I am sure that NY would be higher than that anyway.
Will they actually announce the SAT score needed for confirmation, or it that something we will have to figure out from counselor reports or those who get lucky calling NM?
@rb681000 The NMS will announce in September what the scores are for NMSF for each state. The only thing we know currently is that the commend Scholar cutoff is 209. Art at Compass looks to have the best estimates for each states cutoff. He was the closet to predicating the Commended cut-off.
http://www.■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■/national-merit-semifinalist-cutoffs/
Actually, the NM organization does not announce the cutoffs.
They send a list of students who made NMSF to schools (and homeschools) in late Aug/early Sept. The mail seems to take awhile to get to schools. Homeschoolers are usually the first to report in here. Some schools will tell kids when they get the letter. Some schools wait until the press release date. At some point (not sure when), the NM organization will tell you the cutoff for a single state if you call them. Later on, the media in some states publish lists of the NMSF students by school and name.
Typically what happens here is that we will post a list like the one at http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/discussion/comment/18766566/#Comment_18766566 around the first of September.
As parents and students hear that a particular score makes it in their state, they report something like “I hope this is higher than the cutoff, but 224 makes it in California.” And, others report things like, “Sorry, but 218 doesn’t make it in California.” Someone updates the list of states to say CA: 218 < x <= 224. Eventually, we figure out the cutoffs.
Last year, someone with the username of Dookster who seemed to be an insider provided a list of cutoffs on September 4 that I think turned out to be accurate.
@Ynotgo – thanks for those insights – I did not realize that’s how it works - somehow (through informal self reporting) people find out the lowest score in each state that is NMSF?
Two Thumbs Up for @Dookster ^:)^ ^:)^ ^:)^
@Ynotgo Thanks for sharing. This information is very insightful. 2 more months to go.
@3boystogo Art Sawyer of Compass said two days ago that he thought the SAT confirming score would be “highly unlikely” to go above 1400. So it seems that a new SAT score of 1400 or better may be the safe bet.
I would also rely most on Art’s predicted PSAT cutoff scores, though I would hold to his ranges rather than the predicted score, as Art himself has said that the ranges, at this point in the unknown, would be a reliable indicator. So if your PSAT score is within the Compass range (3-5 points), consider yourself still in the running for NMSF.