National Merit Cutoff Predictions Class of 2017

Could someone post a link to the updated concordance tables? I can’t seem to find them.

https://collegereadiness.collegeboard.org/pdf/2015-psat-nmsqt-concordance-tables.pdf

Updated May 2016. Haven’t looked at them yet - wanted to get the link out there.

wow – seems really harsh. Although my DS’s 1470 was actually an SI of 218 it equates only to a concorded 211? So I wonder if states with previous cut offs of 218 -219 will go up a point or perhaps several more!

That updated concordance table makes NO sense to me at all. It shows a 1520 with a SI index from 240 to 221. How is that even possible? My S made a 1460 with a SI of 221 in Texas and it doesn’t look like he will have a shot at NMSF. Glad I didn’t waste anymore money on having him take the SAT again. Crazy!!!

Didn’t Art already address the updated concordance tables?

http://www.■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■/psat-concordances-and-national-merit/

Or has there been a further update to the tables?

I think any new tables in that concordance are based on data that’s already been out. Art had calculated the same type of “SI concordance” in a previous post here http://www.■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■/psat-concordances-and-national-merit/

Concording to old values shouldn’t mean anything for the current potential NMSF kids. The NMSF determination should be going purely off the percentiles of the kids scores, which should be irrespective of whatever “old” SI they might “translate” to.

Should. :\

@saillakeerie …thank you for the article. I guess I missed this one while visiting colleges. I will read several times and try to take it all in. 8-|

Yes, this table is exactly the same one that I posted about at the end of May, which I mailed to Art. (It was mailed to me by someone at the state of Oregon - just because I asked nicely! Thanks to I think @Mamelot for pointing out that ODE had received the concordance tables already.)

I think the conclusion is that they just forced / assumed that the new PSAT maps 1-to-1 to the new SAT, and then used the SAT concordance table. But somehow the new SAT scores were a little bit more inflated than they expected - which makes this PSAT concordance table too harsh.

Thanks @thshadow – it looks ridiculous when you think about the projected and recent year cut offs with the top score being lowered from 240 to 228. I guess we’ll finally know what the cut offs are actually in 2 months or less - finally does not seem like so far away.

The most important sentence in Art’s article about the new concordance is this one:

Waiting a couple of months is all anyone can really do. This data is useless.

@DoyleB Nice to see you back in this thread!

I’m sticking with Art’s advice (CompassPrep). Note that in his response to @thShadow he says the following:

“I’ve taken to thinking of the October 2015 as the predesigned PSAT, if you will. Not old enough to be old; not new enough to be new. The first and last of its kind.”

This truly was a year of experimentation on the Class of 2017.

These were already discussed even though they weren’t posted on collegeboard. Nothing new here.

Sorry guys. I missed this discussion at the end of May or first of June. That is what a few days of not watching this thread will do to you. I will try to do better. :smiley:

It’s actually good that this has been brought up again now that CB finally got it on their website. As the NM announcement date approaches, there will be more traffic here. @Tgirlfriend @MomNJof2 and other commenters did everyone a favor today.

Let’s keep an eye out for those state summary reports. Obviously CB is taking care of those pesky administrative details - such as REPORTING - now that all the test scores (SAT, AP, etc.) are released for the year.

oh yeah – those state summary reports – should they have been out by now or what is our current guesstimate?? Aug or Sept?

I actually have been checking regularly to see if it was posted (a bit obsessively if I am honest with myself). The document is dated May but it was only posted in the last day or two. Agree with others that the tables seem useless. Oh well.

“Look for updated tables in May”. I guess if the report is dated “May” then that’s good enough for CB. Maybe the state summary reports will be released in August but dated “February 2016”.