It’s not that the commended cutoff should be 209. It is 209. It has been verified.
And that’s not what it was last year (I think it was 202) or in years past AFAIK.
209 is unprecedented for the Commended cut-off - at least in recent years (i.e. since the PSAT went to a 2400 basis).
The new test might have scoring that “looks” like the old scoring but it is a different test so we can’t expect it to have the same overall cut-offs. However, I suspect that the 209 is a bit higher - and the scores a bit more compressed - than CB intended. Could be wrong about that. But for measuring achievement at this part of the curve it makes no sense to squish everything together.
On this thread it was stated by someone that they mail out the nmsf letters to schools and homeschools on august 23rd.Is that correct?
Seems to me the CB wants more compressed state cutoffs (and commended cutoff as well). One criticism of the cutoffs was differences amongst various states. For the class of 2016 the gap between the lowest cutoff states and lowest cutoff states was 23 points (202 versus 225). The gap cannot be that high for the class of 2017 because highest cutoffs would need to be 232 (which isn’t possible). Highest range for predicted cutoff is 223 which reduces the maximum gap to 14 points. And if the highest state cutoff is less than the highest predicted range, the gap will be even less. Optically I would think the CB would prefer smaller deltas.
@saillakeerie but CB shouldn’t be worried about cut-off differences among the states - that’s NMSC’s deal. CB should limit its concerns to proper test design. I suppose there is a correlation between cut-offs and state performance on the SAT so perhaps squishing everything together on the high and low ends helps disguise that disparity. But doesn’t that also make progress measurement over time much more difficult and even discouraging? (At least at the tails . . . ). A lot of work that might have resulted in a 10-20 point shift on the old SAT now might not even be able to move a point. That seems counter-productive to what the CB is trying to achieve in the new test. But maybe the left tail isn’t as bad as the right and so assuming steady progress over time CB is hoping everyone is bunched up at the right side of the distribution. Sort of like the marching band and alley wall in “Animal House” :))
@snicks yes that’s correct. But it generally takes awhile for the information to get to the school, get processed, and get to the students. YMMV.
Are there any Mississippi homeschoolers on this thread?
@Mamelot @saillakeerie I think CB is definitely more concerned about the scores in the middle than at the top end, since the middle (“the masses” so to speak) is where they are hoping to make their money. NM probably wasn’t even on their radar because that is no longer their target market. I think the “squashing” of the high end was unintended consequence of the new test simply being inflated/easier.
(Whether they intended the test to be easier/scores to inflate is a whole separate debate.)
Perhaps the colleges asked for tighter scoring at the top end. The bulk of colleges had an average incoming SAT below 2000, that could be 400 less than the top elites.
With the new scaling a top state flagship may be within 200 points of a top elite, that would make there freshman profile look more appealing higher achieving applicants.
I doubt it. Top scorers are the worst offenders for taking and retaking tests and they are all gunning for the top schools.
There is no reason why an achievement test cannot test students at ALL levels. Its ridiculous that the top of the curve is so squashed. Getting 3 or 4 wrong really brings down the score at the very top - much more than it does for the ACT and much more than it does on the old SAT.
But over time those smaller differences won’t seem so small, especially as memories of the old test fade away (which will happen very quickly). Right now everyone understands the difference between, say, a 30 and a 32 on the ACT even if they are only 2 points apart.
Is there any one in this forum that is in Texas with a 218 or 219 home school? We are getting close…next week letters go out.
Is it safe to assume that a 225 will be a semifinalist no matter what the state–looking specifically at NJ and DC?
@aptrail - the CompassPrep predictions top out at 224. They’d probably tell you that 225 is safe.
@SouthernMother I’m wondering the same thing. We may be the last to find out in Mississippi.
My son has a 218 SI so I feel reasonably good about his chances. Since there doesn’t seem to be any MS homeschoolers on here, I will probably started asking around to find some locally.
Please a NY home schooler report as well – actually all home schoolers – PLEASE report here and indicate score and your state! Scroll down on the compass blog and report info to Art too & it could help him piece things together for various states:http://www.■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■/national-merit-semifinalist-cutoffs/
I also noticed Art posted this explanation too about timing of release of info:
"NMSC does not officially announce state cut-offs. Instead, those are learned from counselors, crowd sourcing (I recommend collegeconfidential.com as a place where students will be sharing results), and insider releases. NMSC sets a “Press Release” date each year when news organizations are given lists of students receiving honors. Last year the date was 09/09 (the Wednesday after Labor Day). Schools will receive the information earlier, but some will not pass it along until the public release date. Last year scores started to roll in about a week before the PR date. After the public release date, NMSC will sometimes give cut-off information to parents who call. If thousands of parents start calling, of course, they won’t be able to help. Your first stop — once results start coming out — should be with your high school. I’ll certainly be updating things regularly on this page, but I’ll be dependent on the same public sources unless a kind insider wants to end the waiting game.
The fact that NMSF results don’t get into student’s hands until the principal or counseling team passes along the information means that Anytown West students may know NMSF status, whereas Anytown East students are left wondering: “Did I not hear because I didn’t make NMSF? Did I not hear because the school hasn’t given me the information yet? I wonder what the cut-off is?” Homeschool students, AFAIK, are not notified before other schools, but homeschool students will generally hear without the principal/counseling office slowing things down. The crowd sourcing of information can be fast in some states and slow in others. A student with a 222 Selection Index who qualifies in TX, for example, tells us that the cut-off has to be at or below 222, but we wouldn’t know the exact cut-off until there are students on either side of the line — score 21x was Commended; score 21x + 1 was Semifinalist. We’re likely to know the cut-off for big states more quickly than we will learn the cut-offs for smaller states. At least the internet has helped narrow the gap."
Can someone tell me what a 1200 score translates to in the other format (ie, 209 etc)? That was a 9th grade score btw. 
You mean 1200 was your 2015 PSAT score and you want a selection index?
If so, what you do is double your verbal, add the math, then divide that by 10. So if 1200 consists of EBRW = 600 and Math = 600 your SI is: (600*2 + 600) / 10 = 180.
Edit/update: your SI should be on your score report.
We are so close! Just days away from the infamous letters being mailed out. Back in January, August seemed so far in the distance. Where did the time go 