National Merit Cutoff Predictions Class of 2017

Is the 209 you referenced for Commended, the number in your state (which?) or the number for homeschoolers? @nutmeg_shippy

Yes, homeschoolers fall under the state where they live. Private schools go by the state the private school is in. Commended is 209 for everyone (per previous year roll outs…this year is unique, so who knows for sure, it’s not official until September.) Semi-finalist is what varies from state to state, traditionally never dropping below the commended cut.

We still don’t have a TX homeschooler with a helpful score (218-220).

@PAMom21-- " Our GC’s don’t know the difference between commended and semi-finalist" Best line yet!

I wish I was joking.

My guess is that most GC’s or other administrators get their info. from some source or other which has been deemed dependable. I find it odd that a GC would act on that information w/o at least a pretty good idea (and disclosing it is even more rare!). Sure some are following CompassPrep and others might be reading CC. You only need a few in each state to do that. My scant foray into the world of GC’s and test prep people has revealed that a lot gets spread via word of mouth. And a lot of the information spread around is probably based on a good set of projections (just like any year).

I do believe there are other ways that administrators get cut-off information and some of this information might come directly from the National Merit people, for whatever reason, and that there is not much secrecy in those communication chains. Either that or some dodo confused CompassPrep for NMSC =D>

Can you explain what you mean by ā€œTX homeschooler with a reliable scoreā€? What does that indicate? @itsgettingreal17

The TX homeschooler on this thread has close to a perfect SI. While awesome, because he is certainly an NMSF, his getting confirmation from NMSC will be unhelpful in determining the cut-off. Since the prediction is 219, we need TX homeschoolers with 218-220 to report to determine the cut-off.

As I’ve mentioned before, we’re homeschoolers with 223s in DC. If they make the cut then it suggests we aren’t looking at a worst case scenario. CompassPrep has DC/NJ at 221-224. I’ll let y’all know when/if we hear anything.

@PAMom21 Your comment has me worried about the Commended score. I thought it was well established that 209 is the national commented score.

ā€œā€¦ Commended is 209 for everyone (per previous year roll outs…this year is unique, so who knows for sure, it’s not official until September.) Semi-finalist is what varies from state to state, traditionally never dropping below the commended cut.ā€

Please don’t let my comment stress you out. I have no reason to believe the commended cut won’t be the 209, as it’s been done in the past. This year IS different with the new test and all, but it’s hard to imagine changes that extreme. It’s just a disclaimer of sorts. Even in the past though, they’ve never officially said that the April score was the commended score, at least I don’t believe they have. They merely notify students above that score that they are moving on in the competition. Folks have called this year. Was the word ā€œcommendedā€ used with any of the NMS staff when the 209 has been verified? I’m just a parent, and not even for class of 2017, so take what I say with a grain of salt! (Mine was a 2015 NMS.)

But if 209 is moving on in the competition and its not the commended cutoff, what is it? On what other basis would someone be moving on in the competition?

You guys are overthinking this. The commended score is 209. No cut-off will be lower. That’s it.

There is a difference between knowing something for all practical purposes and having Common Knowledge. The latter is when the lists are released.

The people at NMS have told ME, that the commended score is officially 209. They specifically said that everyone with a 209 will move on in the competition. There is no question on this. The commended score for Class of 2017 is 209.

I have in front of me the letter that I, as a homeschooler, received from the NMSC. These are direct quotes pulled from that letter.

ā€œWith a Selection Index score of 209 or above, these high performers have shown outstanding academic potential. From approximately 1.5 million program entrants, each of these students is among the 50,000 highest scoring participants who will be recognized in the fall.ā€

It then tells principals to check the spelling of contestants names, etc. then goes on to say this -

ā€œFrom the 50,000 high scorers nationwide, about 16,000 will be named National Merit Program Semifinalists, representing the top scorers in each state, and approximately 34,000 others will be commended for their performance on the PSAT/NMSQT.ā€

Maybe it can be put this way - no one with a score below 209 will be recognized. Also, there will be no one with a score of 209 or above that will not be recognized.

Awesome, thanks for sharing the wording @nutmeg_shippy !

Does anyone know when the list of names will be released or when students will be notified if they qualify for semi-finalist?

@17scotts, From post #5312:

Why should the commended cutoff be 209 like it was in years past if the NMSQT scale changed completely?