National Merit Cutoff Predictions Class of 2017

@texaspg I think that was the intention. The huge range bothered a lot of people and gave NMS a lot of bad press. People thought that it wasn’t fair that the cutoff was so low in Wyoming vs SO high in NJ (for example) - especially for a scholarship called “** National Merit ** Scholarship”.

@texaspg You are a little late to this one. There is a reason why we are on page 371. Have some fun and dip back into some of the earlier debates. Look through some of the more recent posts for mentions of Art and check out his estimates on the Compass Prep website (different from the FAQ page). They are the best we will have until letters start coming in.

They usually have 2 or 3. There are 3 at 218 or higher. They would have 1 if the cutoff is 219 @WGSK8

@texaspg Art also wrote a helpful blog post about the compression:

http://www.■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■/new-psat-score-compression/

Well, the mail just came, and I didn’t get anything from NMSC (I’m homeschooled). I live in Illinois, about 15 miles away from Evanston (the location of NMSC headquarters) so maybe the letters weren’t sent out by first class mail. I’m hoping that I’ll get something Friday!

@cbphysics99 well, poo!! They said they went out late on Tuesday. We will wait for tomorrows mail then. Thank you for the update.

@cbphysics99 Thanks for the update! UGH. Cheapskates with the postage!

“Late Tues.” could mean it missed the last post so would be Wednesday’s mail. Last year no one reported anything before the weekend so that’s a good target.

Also didn’t someone just say that they might be sending out in batches? If so who knows if IL is mailed at the same time? If I were running NMSC and I knew that a ton of CC’ers (including lots of homeschoolers in my state) were pouncing on the mail for news and posting it forthwith, I guess I’d 1) start mailing out a bit earlier than I’m actually disclosing; 2) stagger my mailings beginning with CA and DC/NJ etc. first, and 3) mail IL in the final batch. And I’d be giggling. :stuck_out_tongue:

How do you guys know the mail will come out from headquarter not some remote printing facilities? :slight_smile:

I called the Corporation. They said the letters were mailed out some days back…my daughter is sitting at a 223 (California) so we are waiting with bated breath

Well, they are a non-profit. There’s no incentive for them to rush the info. Really, there’s no point in them actually mailing it out when they could just release it online like normal 21st century entities do, but let’s not go there.

@kesari There is no way CA cutoff will go above 222. No way mainly because that would mean NJ cutoff would be 224 or 225! I would be celebrating if I were you. Lol My bet is 221, maybe 220. I would be HIGHLY surprised if CA cutoff was 222, mainly because IMO cut-off number will be ODD number (because less people with odd numbered SI index scores).

My kid’s school in CA had around 30 NMSFs last year, and according to my kid, he knows at least 15 kids who had 221 or higher. Obviously, he hasn’t asked all students. :slight_smile:

@MotherOfDragons I agree – snail mail – really - to schools across the country?? No logins to access info online?

@kesari – good luck – think you are in good shape IMHO.

An old topic on the thread - I still wonder if the fact that it was only given on a Wednesday (no additional Saturday test date means more or fewer students took it in certain states - wonder if numbers will vary a lot from the past but we likely will never see the state summary reports. And did NMC confirm no increase in number of NMSFs - all that compression at the top had led to our pondering whether in some states students with the same SI might be treated differently – on the cusp number – if I understand correctly NMC never actually publishes the cut off scores by state, .

NMSC doesn’t like to encourage direct comparisons between states so publishing it online is out of the question. It has to be treated just like your private health information.

And we wonder just why so many schools downgrade the NM achievement. Could they be taking cues from National Merit itself?

I’m ALREADY tired of refreshing this thread. Its going to be a long week :slight_smile:

Uh, no it doesn’t. It’s not subject to HIPPA rules. It’s made up rules from a private non-profit company.

And it is totally disingenuous of the company to think it’s discouraging direct comparisons between states by snail mailing stuff. It’s an antiquated process that discounts the internet. It’s kind of silly, and the only reason they continue to do it is because at this point there is only a relatively small group of whack jobs on the internet (aka us) who give a damn.

I just added “member of a relatively small group of whack jobs” to my resume.

@MotherOfDragons : “relatively small group of whack jobs on the internet (aka us) who give a damn.”

+1

@Mamelot : “And we wonder just why so many schools downgrade the NM achievement.”

Refer to #5575, above. :wink:

@MotherOfDragons whether NMSC SHOULD treat your NMSC status like confidential health information is a different question from whether its actions are consistent with that treatment.

Edit/Add: every year a subset of the “whack jobs” complains that National Merit isn’t truly “national” so it’s not surprising that NMSC is a bit sensitive about its agenda to allow every state to have a representation. But I totally agree that all the antiquated processes and secrecy is dumb.

I think giving scholarships based on PSAT is outdated. I know it has been debated before.