In past years’ threads, volunteer posters compiled (or everyone copy and pasted) running lists of confirmed cutoff numbers by state with links to the pertinent post numbers. In that way, it was easy to replace lower values as they were reported.
@WhereIsMyKindle …that would be great if someone would be willing to take that duty on. 
Why NJ has such a high number? :(( I never heard of NMSF till way past the PSAT test date #-o Guess it is not meant to be 
@Tgirlfriend I would think not. Once letters start arriving, there will be a lot of activity on this thread. How far back do you want to dig to find out what their SI is?
It might be different if the posting was limited to informative, score-related posts that will help us all to determine the ranges. But there are going to be a lot of spurious posts like “I’m in!”, “I hope I make it!”, and “Does anyone know Idaho yet?” that will clutter up the forum without providing any information.
I don’t think that we want every participant chiming in with state and SI now.
In an ideal world, the only posters would be those who get NMSF and are below the lowest previous NMSF score for that state, and those who get NM Commended and are above the highest previous NM Commended score for that state.
Those are the only scores that will narrow the range and establish the cutoffs.
Plus, I believe that Commended students get letters, too. Is that correct?
The list will accumulate organically - someone will step up to show the running total. Art will likely be updating his site too. Hopefully some IL folks will chime in today… they should have the letters today if its First Class Mail. Hard to believe that NMS can’t afford first class mail and drags this out by sending in bulk, but nothing surprises me at this point.
@DOTexe hope you are correct because we know folks in MN with a 214 or 213 who really want to make SF this year. MN tends to trail IL by one or two points.
I have reasons to believe that MN is 216 and not just because of Art’s prediction. On average, cutoffs historically under about 219 will need to come up but of course there is the prospect of individual variation. If the relationship holds this year then IL would be more like 217-218. So 215 seems a bit low. However, it IS w/in the predicted range per Compass so it could definitely happen. Hope my source is incorrect - crossing fingers for everyone in those score ranges who would be affected.
@WhereIsMyKindle yeah it gets crazy. Various posters will open with phrasing like “Here is the list updated for the 221 in X State and the 214 in Y”. Then they post big lists that show a lot of “<=” symbols. But then others are doing the same thing. You all thought this thread was huge now? You ain’t seen nothin’ yet!
Agree that only the winning numbers are relevant now.
Although we may not get the best/most precise info - would be helpful if we can get any info from home schoolers or GCs about the lowest score that is an MNSF for their child, school & state. We could compare to Art’s predictions – and just indicate a reported NMSF score and by whom & what state.
Anyone think we might see some actual score cut offs today??
Based on commended cutoff, it is not unreasonable to expect every state going up by 6 points from last year.
That would make NJ/DC a 231.
Edit/add: 8-}
I would not be surprised if at least one state crosses 230.
The scaling has been changed in an upward way. There is no negative scoring so people are free to guess (?).
@texaspg …do you realize that the top score on the PSAT is a SI of 228?
I hope we see them soon. WE will post if m D hits or not and my D will be right on the cutoff one way or the other. Remember they made us wait nearly a year without any hard facts on the cutoffs.I would have thought that in a strange year like this they would have brought the information out early, posted state comparisons early and would have shown some sensitivity towards national merit in their updated concordance. ACT Rocks.
@RW1 it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if NMSC DID do just what you said . . . for the schools.
@texasspg go ahead and check out the Compass predictions as Art has a pretty reasonable methodology for coming up with these. Yes, a lot of states will come up. The crossover point is around 219 or 220. Those historically high states will come down a bit, although there are some nerve-wracking anecdotal reports from NJ suggesting the cut-off might not change much at all for them. We’ll have to see.
http://www.■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■/national-merit-semifinalist-cutoffs/
So commended is 209 but top score is 228? Sounds a lot worse. 
Last year commended was 203 with 240 cap.
@DOTexe Thanks for the IMSA data, and for the encouragement!
It is interesting that 75th percentile is a 1400. That gives an SI range of 204-216, with the higher scores favoring higher verbal/lower math. Not what IMSA is known for (hence the M and the S).
It will be interesting to see the cutoff and how IMSA does this year.
Found this interesting FAQ on Compass blog site. The “highest-selection” state SI’s are not updated so don’t look at those numbers (stick to the prediction site instead). But the information is helpful to those wondering about “next steps” or just have general questions:
@mamelot - The top scores are going down in this, most likely to 221 as the highest for a cutoff in NJ? Interesting pattern which means all State scores have a narrow bandwidth of about 12 points from commended to NMSF.
@texaspg Welcome to the party:)