National Merit Cutoff Predictions Class of 2017

@paveyourpath I can tell you a bit about how things worked for S1 three years ago, but I don’t know if it will be the same this year. The school counselor in charge of the National Merit applications received a letter from National Merit with log in information. She logged in and was then able to print out letters to each of the semifinalists, which she distributed. The letter said “Except for your family and your high school principal, this information is confidential until” (date) when NMSC “will release the names of Semifinalists to the news media nationwide.” Each letter gave a username and password for the student to access their online application for Finalist with all the instructions. The letter said to electronically submit your completed portion of the application to your high school official, and that the school official will finalize the application by completing the school’s portion and transmitting it to NMSC by the deadline date. The student had to arrange for a letter of recommendation, which was entered when the school did its portion of the application, which included entering the student’s transcript. The student had to send any outside transcripts and their test scores to NM. The letter did not state the minimum confirming SAT score that would be needed to become a Finalist.

218 Illinois!! Fingers crossed

@BunnyBlue Thank you! This is very helpful. I am not sure when we will know if his test score confirms but I guess we get through step 1 first and worry about confirmation big scores after Labor Day.

Good luck to everyone!! In NC with 223.

I hope that no one here is disappointed!! It has been a fun ride :slight_smile: And I know it will continue to be until we all receive FINALIST notification!

When I called and asked NMSC about whether there is a confirming (new) SAT score yet they told me that this information would be made available individually to the semifinalists in September. They didn’t specify exactly how that info. would be available (i.e. via login, in a letter, or other means).

State cut-offs and SAT confirming score will also be released by phone beginning on the Release Date. Hopefully everything will be communicated here well before then!

Same here. Daughter in Illinois with 218!

@perch1024 - Any idea from your or child school, how this year scores compars to last year. In my daughter’s school which usually has about 16 to 24 NMSF students every year since the last 5 years or so, this year they have 22 students with 218 or higher. So, I am hoping 218 is a good score to get in NMSF this year from IL. Since if it’s 219, her School will have only 10 children qualifying for NMSF this year! I am hoping that is not the case since year 2011 they never had any less than 11 children who qualified for NMSF!

@thshadow wrote:

I think you’re selling yourself way too short. I believe the cutoffs you posted in #3843 are going to be very close.

http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/discussion/comment/19542036/#Comment_19542036

HI I am also a reader of this thread but I don’t post very often. I have a DD 2017 and she might not make the cutoff but may be close. It would be great if she made it, though!

Just saw this on the Compass website… “**Update 8/23/16 Supposedly mail went out today from NMSC, but it will be going to schools, not students. Some results should start dribbling in.”

update…now reading back on the thread, sorry this is a repeat of already shared info! :slight_smile: Oops!

:-w <-- favorite emoji lately.

@MotherOfDragons – Perfect emoji!! Especially after feeling this one so long --> ~X(

@WGSK88 do you have any idea how many in the school at 217 or higher? Just wondering as that is the Compass prediction for IL.

@Mamelot Funny thing is Art (Compass) used my data to predict that range. He feels though 218 may qualify but not very sure considering the high scores reported everywhere. Sorry, only I got the details of 218 or above from the School GC - this itself after couple of email communication in January after the scores came out. Her School had 10 students with 219 or above and 12 students with exactly 218 score. Since odd scores are not high in number I have been told most likely it will be odd score cutoff. I hope it’s 217 since 219 in IL will get my daughter’s school only 10 children qualifying for NMSF this year which has not happened in her school till 2011! So, odds are in her favor but still as the time nears by anxiety is growing!!!

@WGSK88 We are sitting on a 218 in Illinois as well. Fingers crossed that everyone on this thread gets good news. Our GC said DS’s score was well within top 25% of scores at his school and they typically have between 25-30% make NMSF. HTH’s.

And a big thank you to the intellectual powerhouses who crunched those numbers! It’s been a fascinating read over he past many months and it feels surreal that we will finally be getting some closure soon.

That’s right @WGSK88 thanks for jogging our memories.

218 sounds about right given the historical school #'s. Very curious to see whether the large HS’s this year see pretty much the same number of sf’s as other years - some variation to be sure but not much over what happens on a year-to-year basis, vs. wow-was-there-a-new-test-or-something-this-year?

@DOTexe 25-30% NMSF? Not many schools anywhere close to that number. IMSA?

We’re hanging on at 217 in IL.

Our GC never shared info about how many have scores above 218 (in CA). We usually have around 10 NMSFs. I haven’t heard more than 10 with above 218 from my S. I gave up on predicting the score and stopped following this group for few months.

@StarboardLeeward Yes, IMSA. My personal prediction for Illinois is 215. The 75th percentile at his school was a 1400 total score, per the GC. She didn’t have the breakdown for selection index scores though, so I actually believe that 218 is on the high end. Or, it could just be that DS’s class is significantly dumber than all previous classes. Who knows but I think you will be just fine with a 217.

Can everyone put their State and Si number on here. Then is you get a letter all you have to post is that you got a letter and we will all know the other information. Sounds like a good idea?