National Merit Cutoff Predictions Class of 2017

Thank you all very much. So even if the school did not pass on the letter/info, if he is over 209, he’s at least commended – this is confirmed?

@momof3co that is correct.

@Mamelot I hear that, but it just seems strange to me. You get a list of “students who will receiev recognition in the 2017 National Merit Scholarship Program in the fall” and you don’t tell them??? Weird! Just to clarify for those of you who didn’t get the notice it specifically said, “with a Selection Index score of 209 or above, these high performers . . .” 209 IS the number.

We heard nothing in the spring (D has a 220). I even emailed the counselor to ask him to verify she was on the list. At first he said the school didn’t get anything. Later he said they couldn’t say anything til they got info in the fall. I am terrified the school won’t do their part.

@slaudsmom We didn’t receive any info from the school regarding commended, either. I emailed the counselor today about the letters being mailed and she didn’t mention it in her response.

For those of you that are worried about your school’s participation, there was no expected response to the letter that came in the spring. If there was a problem you could respond to it, but there was no need to respond. I’m sure there are things the school will need to do during the next phase, but I think you will have more control over that.

Our school doesn’t notify in the spring either. In fact, the GC laughs that I know more than she does! She had no idea that there was a letter somewhere at the school that arrived in the spring with a list of the commended students. I think they should be told in case they have not taken the SAT which many did not in the Class of 2017. My daughter only took the ACT, did well, and thought she was finished with her testing until I came to this thread, found out the projected NMSF SI for our state and realized she would most likely make the cut.Now she is registered for the SAT in Oct and I have been lurking here for many weeks. Thank you all for all your info!

My son brought up National Merit at a Q&A with his guidance counselor today and she was completely flummoxed.

GC - “Are you sure they have sent out that information already?”
DS - “Yes, but you might not get it until next week. It was sent 8/23. Nevertheless, given the distribution in this class, it is very important to be pro-active”
GC - Um…
AP - We’ll make sure you know as soon as we do.

((We will never mind the incredible misinformation throughout the Q&A. DS might have been more focused than the poor GC. He needs a label - “my mom spends too much time on College Confidential” On the whole, his attempts to explain the reprecusions of ED and student loans fell on deaf ears. I think perhaps, many of his NYU ED decision classmates hate him (no worries, GC said if you can’t afford it, it’s EASY to get out of ED.) Poor kid. He really wanted to help. I had to explain to him “smile and nod”)

So hopefully that will be helpful. Since DS is the bubbliest bubble score possible in Florida, if he can get the IB AP to tell him ASAP, hopefully I will be able to shed some light soon…

@delilahxc-My son is also on the bubble in FL. GOOD LUCK!

Good luck to all of us bubble babies – let’s not burst – even if it doesn’t work out, we have GREAT kids!!

Okay, I just want to clarify here. Am I supposed to be individually receiving a letter supposedly mailed on the 23rd letting me know I was selected? Or will it have gone to my school?

@fossilfriend It will go to your school. The only exception is if you are homeschooled.

Reason flew the coop long ago.

@fossilfriend You may want to read my post #5520 for some more info.

@candjsdad #5642 it IS weird; but then, a LOT of the national merit stuff is weird. D3 wasn’t told either and I’m not sure the purpose of the letter WAS to inform the students (rather than to verify information). The schools are SO much more in the know than the students and families throughout the process. I think a lot of schools aren’t necessarily trying to enable all the secrecy, they’re just following NMSC’s lead on this and perhaps aren’t rocking the boat too much because they don’t want to jeopardize someone’s chances for scholarship money.

If some initial cut-off has been established and that information gets released (even personally by phone), then there should be some sort of acknowledgement of that at the time. If NMSC was actually MORE up front and transparent about the entire process there wouldn’t be anywhere near the amount of rumor-mongering and guesswork.

Re: the Walton HS letter back from a few pages ago:

Unless I overlooked it, the Cobb County letter (when was that letter released?) gives the totals, not the Selection index, so there is no way yet of knowing how many kids met or exceeded the 209 commended cutoff and how many will hit or exceed whatever the state’s SI is this year. In past years, GA’s selection index (on the old PSAT) ranged between 214-218 (out of a max 240). Hard to gauge what it will be with a max score of 228 (and no penalty for guessing). I am sitting here with a student’s PSAT printout from a nearby school who got a 1390, whose SI just barely made it over the commended cutoff. So while Walton’s top 100 average was 1453, and it would be wonderful to see half of them make NMSF, it may be a bit overly optimistic, IMO.

In the spring I went out of my way to ask the principal if he’d heard anything about National Merit and all I got was a blank stare. Our school is lucky to get one NMSF a year, so they don’t have a lot of experience with the process.

In other news, DS is looking pretty good with a 216 in Utah. :slight_smile: But with the total incompetence that seems to reign at the high school, we may never find anything out…

So did anyone get a letter today? We did not have one in the mail in Texas.

Since the distribution is typically right tailed at the top, I suspect that less than 50 students have a 1450 or a 216. Still it says that a 216 is unlikely in GA and a 217 minimum or a 218 as most predict is the likely outcome. I can see 30 NMSF from this class but not 50

I’m curious - how many perfect PSAT scores do you estimate this year? In the past, the old psat had around 100ish perfect scorers. I’m guessing there will be a lot more this year, but to what extent?