National Merit Cutoff Predictions Class of 2017

@nutmeg_shippy Which thread are you referring to? Can you give me a link? Great news for my kid if true. Tx.

@DOTexe here is the explanation from NMSC - I don’t think the rules have changed from prior years:

"NMSC designates Semifinalists in the program on a state-representational basis to ensure that academically able young people from all parts of the United States are included in this talent pool. Using the latest data available, an allocation of Semifinalists is determined for each state, based on the state’s percentage of the national total of high school graduating seniors. For example, the number of Semifinalists in a state that enrolls approximately two percent of the nation’s graduating seniors would be about 320 (2 percent of the 16,000 Semifinalists).
NMSC then arranges the Selection Index scores of all National Merit Program participants within a state in descending order. The score at which a state’s allocation is most closely filled becomes the Semifinalist qualifying score. Entrants with a Selection Index at or above the qualifying score are named Semifinalists. As a result of this process, Semifinalist qualifying scores vary from state to state and from year to year, but the scores of all Semifinalists are extremely high.

In addition to Semifinalists designated in each of the 50 states and without affecting the allocation to any state, Semifinalists are named in several other selection units that NMSC establishes for the competition. These units are for students attending schools in the District of Columbia, schools in U.S. commonwealths and territories, schools in other countries that enroll U.S. citizens, and U.S. boarding schools that enroll a sizable proportion of their students from outside the state in which the school is located. A participant can be considered for Semifinalist standing in only one state or selection unit, based on the high school in which the student is regularly enrolled when taking the PSAT/NMSQT."

http://www.nationalmerit.org/s/1758/images/gid2/editor_documents/student_guide.pdf

For anyone looking for the SI score on the PSAT/NMSQT, here are some instructions. Go to studentscores.collegeboard.org and put in your login info. You will see the Dashboard with all the College Board test results so far. Click on the PSAT/NMSQT test. On the PSAT page you will see four subtitles at the top in white letters. Click on ā€œNMSC Selection Indexā€, and you will see the page with the SI score.

@websensation http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/discussion/comment/19905525/#Comment_19905525

Oh man, I am so happy for my kid if that GC report of CA cutoff being 221 or lower is true. If a false report, I will personally track down the poster and sue him or her for misleading me. Lol The reason I am happy for my kid is that he’s not the type of kid who does all that well in SAT. His SAT score which he took in Soph year was around 2100, but he took PSAT in Junior year and now it seems he made NMSF, so maybe he got smarter during one year period. Lol My kid hates standardized tests so he’s not even going to take another SAT test.

At least we crazies have a sense of humor about this. I wouldn’t trade that for the stick that’s evidently up her, keister.

I’d like to add that since ā€œweā€ are paying six figures for our daughters’ schools, ā€œweā€ get to use the pronoun ā€œweā€ as often as ā€œweā€ darn well please.

Yes, CA at 221 is huge. I nominated it for ā€œpost of the yearā€ on the other thread before I realized that it was, in fact, on the other thread and not this one so I reached out to the moderators and had my post deleted. I now re-nominate it for post of the year. :slight_smile:

Thanks!

Great response from poster John on Art’s blog to that ā€œI am better than thouā€ poster:

ā€œLisa,I don’t post on CC, but respect so many who do. On the thread that you find to be beneath you there are many parents who, although their student has been eliminated from NM competition, continue to help those who need direction and/or advice on the thread. Art has been superb, but there is no need to backhand the parents on CC. The kindness of both Art and the others on CC has been amazing.ā€

I feel the same way as the poster John. And if I may add one more thing, I hope that Lisa poster’s kid has a lot kinder attitude than his or her mom.

@mommieme, the range of scores corresponding to a 214 SI varies from 1380 to 1450, depending on how the scores from the individual sections are distributed. Basically, the English sections count twice as much as the math section. The highest score possible for one section is 76 for the PSAT. So, if a student scores 76 on the math, 214-76=138, 138/2=69 which would be the lowest possible English score to get a 214, (69+76)10=1450. However, if the student scores 76 on the English section, 214-(276)=62 which would be the lowest possible math score to get a 214, (76+62)*10=1380.

The students that do very well in math but not as great in English are disadvantaged. I’ve heard the reason for the unequal weighting is to get a more balanced distribution of girls to boys as boys are supposedly better in math and girls are better in English. I have no idea if that is the reasoning, but it certainly doesn’t hold true for my daughter.

The students that got ** 1 wrong ** on the English section loses ** 2 ** SI points. Trying not to dwell on the fact that my kid could have a 223 instead of 221 (which very likely won’t make it in NJ) because of 1 stupid mistake on grammar.

@suzyQ7 Wow, that is the ultimate penalty for one silly mistake! Holding out hope for your kid.

Well, let’s keep things in perspective here. Tripping off a cliff and dying because you’re wearing flip flops is the ultimate penalty for one silly mistake.

@MotherOfDragons True! Totally agree… I’m grateful for what he has, that’s for sure.

@Mamelot Thanks for that info! So I guess from ā€œThe score at which a state’s allocation is most closely filled becomes the Semifinalist qualifying scoreā€ explains they are rounding up and down. I’d love to know how many in Illinois who had 218’s were in the state’s allocation but because there weren’t enough of them, they got rounded up (and out of contention). Guess we will never know!

Looks like my daughter did not make it with a 215 in Florida…principal notified the qualifying kids yesterday…

As far as the PSAT and NM go, one silly mistake that costs 2 SI points and may prevent you from advancing in what has traditionally been the toughest state in the country is pretty much the costliest penalty there is in this contest. Of course there are other things in life that would be more devastating. No need to be snarky @MotherOfDragons. And for @suzyQ7, even if your kid misses here, which is not yet a given, I’m sure he/she will be very successful regardless.

@DOTexe That makes sense. Thanks for the clarification! I was worried states wouldn’t be able to go over at all 8-| Congrats to California students above a 221!! Still on the high end but looking better :slight_smile: Hoping another responds with Fl today so we can end the misery of waiting

@mom2dixie Thank you for letting us know, and sorry your D didn’t make it! Does your D know if anyone had a 216 that made it?

@mom2dixie I’m sorry. At least she got commended! Definitely will add weight to applications.